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Rice (imported) in Arlit

Agadez, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 8% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 20% above the national median of 52 markets (usually 10% above). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

548–628

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

529–640

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 8% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 6% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 59 markets in Niger, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 548 and 628 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 529 and 640 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (imported), Arlit: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 8% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 6% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 59 markets in Niger, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 548 and 628 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 529 and 640 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (52 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 566–612 598 549–632 661 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 555–616 595 524–652 651 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 548–628 589 530–673 677 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 538–633 589 513–680 661 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 529–640 587 499–734 676 –
Price history (195 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026600
Aug 2026600
Jul 2026600
Jun 2026600
May 2026638
Apr 2026600
Mar 2026600
Feb 2026600
Jan 2026600
Dec 2025600
Nov 2025600
Oct 2025600
Sept 2025600
Aug 2025600
Jul 2025625
Jun 2025700
May 2025713
Apr 2025750
Mar 2025750
Feb 2025750
Jan 2025763
Dec 2024742
Nov 2024738
Oct 2024700
Sept 2024725
Aug 2024763
Jul 2024763
Jun 2024750
May 2024738
Apr 2024663
Mar 2024650
Feb 2024725
Jan 2024713
Dec 2023700
Nov 2023720
Oct 2023600
Sept 2023600
Aug 2023600
Jun 2023500
May 2023500
Apr 2023500
Mar 2023500
Feb 2023500
Jan 2023500
Dec 2022500
Nov 2022521
Oct 2022500
Sept 2022500
Aug 2022500
Jul 2022500
Jun 2022500
May 2022500
Apr 2022500
Mar 2022500
Feb 2022500
Jan 2022500
Dec 2021500
Nov 2021500
Oct 2021450
Sept 2021500
Aug 2021500
Jul 2021500
Jun 2021500
May 2021500
Apr 2021500
Mar 2021500
Feb 2021500
Jan 2021500
Dec 2020474
Nov 2020500
Oct 2020500
Sept 2020500
Aug 2020500
Jul 2020500
Jun 2020500
May 2020500
Apr 2020500
Mar 2020500
Feb 2020500
Jan 2020500
Dec 2019500
Nov 2019500
Oct 2019500
Sept 2019500
Aug 2019500
Jul 2019500
Jun 2019500
Apr 2019500
Mar 2019500
Feb 2019500
Jan 2019500
Nov 2018500
Oct 2018500
Sept 2018500
Aug 2018500
Jul 2018500
Apr 2018500
Mar 2018500
Feb 2018500
Jan 2018500
Dec 2017500
Nov 2017500
Oct 2017500
Sept 2017500
Aug 2017500
Jun 2017500
May 2017500
Apr 2017500
Feb 2017500
Jan 2017500
Nov 2016500
Oct 2016500
Sept 2016500
Aug 2016500
Jul 2016500
Jun 2016500
May 2016500
Mar 2016500
Feb 2016500
Jan 2016500
Dec 2015500
Oct 2015500
Sept 2015500
Aug 2015500
Jul 2015500
Jun 2015500
May 2015600
Apr 2015500
Mar 2015500
Feb 2015500
Jan 2015550
Nov 2014550
Oct 2014600
Sept 2014600
Aug 2014600
Jul 2014600
Jun 2014600
May 2014600
Apr 2014600
Mar 2014600
Feb 2014600
Jan 2014600
Dec 2013600
Nov 2013600
Oct 2013600
Sept 2013600
Aug 2013600
Jul 2013600
Jun 2013600
May 2013600
Apr 2013600
Mar 2013600
Jan 2013600
Dec 2012600
Nov 2012600
Oct 2012600
Sept 2012600
Aug 2012600
Jul 2012600
May 2012600
Apr 2012600
Dec 2011600
Nov 2011600
Oct 2011600
Sept 2011600
Jul 2011600
Jun 2011600
May 2011600
Apr 2011600
Mar 2011600
Jan 2011575
Dec 2010533
Nov 2010500
Oct 2010500
Sept 2010500
Aug 2010500
Jul 2010500
Jun 2010500
May 2010500
Apr 2010500
Mar 2010500
Feb 2010500
Jan 2010500
Dec 2009500
Nov 2009500
Oct 2009500
Sept 2009500
Aug 2009500
Jul 2009500
Jun 2009500
May 2009500
Apr 2009500
Mar 2009500
Feb 2009500
Jan 2009500

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-548-64-retail-kg.