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Sorghum in Arlit

Agadez, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 16% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 50% above the national median of 51 markets (usually 36% above). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

252–376

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

248–394

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 16% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 18% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 252 and 376 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 248 and 394 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Arlit: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 16% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 18% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 252 and 376 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 248 and 394 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 566); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 309–374 336 292–400 417 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 273–374 325 242–419 408 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 252–376 311 220–441 387 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 245–380 307 194–551 385 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 248–394 316 220–566 387 –
Price history (195 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026326
Aug 2026355
Jul 2026385
Jun 2026336
May 2026301
Apr 2026311
Mar 2026316
Feb 2026329
Jan 2026326
Dec 2025325
Nov 2025316
Oct 2025355
Sept 2025362
Aug 2025371
Jul 2025396
Jun 2025395
May 2025400
Apr 2025380
Mar 2025360
Feb 2025361
Jan 2025400
Dec 2024373
Nov 2024400
Oct 2024403
Sept 2024501
Aug 2024520
Jul 2024469
Jun 2024433
May 2024388
Apr 2024370
Mar 2024372
Feb 2024376
Jan 2024361
Dec 2023368
Nov 2023380
Oct 2023380
Sept 2023352
Aug 2023361
Jun 2023323
May 2023352
Apr 2023342
Mar 2023342
Feb 2023342
Jan 2023342
Dec 2022342
Nov 2022241
Oct 2022342
Sept 2022342
Aug 2022342
Jul 2022342
Jun 2022342
May 2022323
Apr 2022323
Mar 2022337
Feb 2022336
Jan 2022317
Dec 2021290
Nov 2021344
Sept 2021407
Aug 2021361
Jul 2021306
Jun 2021305
May 2021305
Apr 2021325
Mar 2021306
Feb 2021305
Jan 2021296
Dec 2020149Data error
Nov 2020380
Oct 2020380
Sept 2020267
Aug 2020267
Jul 2020266
Jun 2020267
May 2020267
Apr 2020267
Mar 2020266
Feb 2020247
Jan 2020247
Dec 2019248
Nov 2019247
Oct 2019260
Sept 2019285
Aug 2019259
Jul 2019228
Jun 2019267
Apr 2019268
Mar 2019268
Feb 2019248
Jan 2019248
Nov 2018248
Oct 2018258
Sept 2018267
Aug 2018267
Jul 2018267
Apr 2018248
Mar 2018267
Feb 2018267
Jan 2018267
Dec 2017267
Nov 2017267
Oct 2017267
Sept 2017286
Aug 2017381
Jun 2017382
May 2017277
Apr 2017267
Feb 2017235
Jan 2017228
Nov 2016229
Oct 2016233
Sept 2016229
Aug 2016214
Jul 2016214
Jun 2016229
May 2016229
Mar 2016267
Feb 2016229
Jan 2016229
Dec 2015229
Oct 2015229
Sept 2015229
Aug 2015266
Jul 2015257
Jun 2015267
May 2015248
Apr 2015248
Mar 2015248
Feb 2015248
Jan 2015257
Nov 2014253
Oct 2014244
Sept 2014239
Aug 2014245
Jul 2014248
Jun 2014258
May 2014250
Apr 2014249
Mar 2014285
Feb 2014279
Jan 2014267
Dec 2013249
Nov 2013258
Oct 2013251
Sept 2013276
Aug 2013279
Jul 2013300
Jun 2013281
May 2013267
Apr 2013276
Mar 2013256
Jan 2013237
Dec 2012238
Nov 2012237
Oct 2012237
Sept 2012258
Aug 2012278
Jul 2012278
May 2012264
Apr 2012260
Dec 2011278
Nov 2011257
Oct 2011237
Sept 2011237
Jul 2011199
Jun 2011200
May 2011206
Apr 2011198
Mar 2011198
Feb 2011196
Jan 2011186
Dec 2010195
Nov 2010196
Oct 2010235
Sept 2010264
Aug 2010257
Jul 2010235
Jun 2010235
May 2010238
Apr 2010237
Mar 2010238
Feb 2010246
Jan 2010238
Dec 2009237
Nov 2009232
Oct 2009198
Sept 2009237
Aug 2009227
Jul 2009215
Jun 2009209
May 2009200
Apr 2009199
Mar 2009198
Feb 2009198
Jan 2009198

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-548-65-retail-kg.