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Millet in Arlit

Agadez, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 21% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 6% above the national median of 53 markets (usually 15% above). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

218–306

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

206–320

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 21% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 218 and 306 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 206 and 320 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Arlit: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 21% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 218 and 306 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 206 and 320 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400500202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (53 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 254–307 277 229–311 361 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 235–302 265 203–324 343 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 218–306 260 175–337 330 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 209–313 258 159–337 320 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 206–320 258 166–338 330 –
Price history (368 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026281
Aug 2026287
Jul 2026285
Jun 2026272
May 2026287
Apr 2026277
Mar 2026272
Feb 2026281
Jan 2026289
Dec 2025296
Nov 2025290
Oct 2025301
Sept 2025329
Aug 2025336
Jul 2025356
Jun 2025356
May 2025342
Apr 2025342
Mar 2025342
Feb 2025347
Jan 2025342
Dec 2024333
Nov 2024340
Oct 2024385
Sept 2024475
Aug 2024499
Jul 2024484
Jun 2024390
May 2024361
Apr 2024333
Mar 2024338
Feb 2024323
Jan 2024323
Dec 2023323
Nov 2023323
Oct 2023333
Sept 2023323
Aug 2023323
Jun 2023323
May 2023326
Apr 2023323
Mar 2023323
Feb 2023323
Jan 2023323
Dec 2022323
Nov 2022259
Oct 2022323
Sept 2022323
Aug 2022323
Jul 2022323
Jun 2022323
May 2022323
Apr 2022323
Mar 2022337
Feb 2022336
Jan 2022317
Dec 2021290
Nov 2021305
Oct 2021267
Sept 2021331
Aug 2021314
Jul 2021306
Jun 2021301
May 2021305
Apr 2021296
Mar 2021286
Feb 2021277
Jan 2021251
Dec 2020186
Nov 2020270
Oct 2020270
Sept 2020267
Aug 2020276
Jul 2020271
Jun 2020268
May 2020305
Apr 2020286
Mar 2020257
Feb 2020228
Jan 2020228
Dec 2019248
Nov 2019228
Oct 2019247
Sept 2019247
Aug 2019248
Jul 2019228
Jun 2019248
Apr 2019248
Mar 2019248
Feb 2019248
Jan 2019248
Nov 2018248
Oct 2018248
Sept 2018248
Aug 2018286
Jul 2018286
Apr 2018267
Mar 2018248
Feb 2018248
Jan 2018258
Dec 2017248
Nov 2017264
Oct 2017267
Sept 2017286
Aug 2017323
Jun 2017337
May 2017286
Apr 2017286
Feb 2017255
Jan 2017228
Nov 2016267
Oct 2016273
Sept 2016267
Aug 2016240
Jul 2016240
Jun 2016229
May 2016229
Mar 2016229
Feb 2016229
Jan 2016229
Dec 2015222
Oct 2015229
Sept 2015229
Aug 2015229
Jul 2015241
Jun 2015248
May 2015248
Apr 2015248
Mar 2015248
Feb 2015239
Jan 2015229
Nov 2014260
Oct 2014265
Sept 2014267
Aug 2014266
Jul 2014266
Jun 2014266
May 2014267
Apr 2014267
Mar 2014267
Feb 2014268
Jan 2014266
Dec 2013254
Nov 2013248
Oct 2013248
Sept 2013274
Aug 2013286
Jul 2013285
Jun 2013284
May 2013285
Apr 2013284
Mar 2013264
Feb 2013269
Jan 2013272
Dec 2012231
Nov 2012236
Oct 2012237
Sept 2012237
Aug 2012305
Jul 2012315
May 2012283
Apr 2012269
Mar 2012260
Feb 2012246
Jan 2012240
Dec 2011237
Nov 2011237
Oct 2011217
Sept 2011217
Jul 2011217
Jun 2011238
May 2011235
Apr 2011236
Mar 2011217
Feb 2011196
Jan 2011196
Dec 2010195
Nov 2010195
Oct 2010198
Sept 2010236
Aug 2010256
Jul 2010236
Jun 2010235
May 2010237
Apr 2010238
Mar 2010237
Feb 2010244
Jan 2010255
Dec 2009256
Nov 2009250
Oct 2009235
Sept 2009254
Aug 2009255
Jul 2009245
Jun 2009235
May 2009236
Apr 2009235
Mar 2009234
Feb 2009234
Jan 2009235
Dec 2008226
Nov 2008213
Oct 2008196
Sept 2008228
Aug 2008235
Jul 2008234
Jun 2008194
May 2008194
Apr 2008196
Mar 2008185
Feb 2008178
Jan 2008178
Dec 2007173
Nov 2007157
Oct 2007160
Sept 2007167
Aug 2007176
Jul 2007176
Jun 2007177
May 2007178
Apr 2007178
Mar 2007178
Feb 2007176
Jan 2007178
Dec 2006175
Nov 2006156
Oct 2006173
Sept 2006194
Aug 2006196
Jul 2006194
Jun 2006195
May 2006196
Apr 2006197
Mar 2006197
Feb 2006196
Jan 2006176
Dec 2005176
Nov 2005159
Oct 2005170
Sept 2005247
Aug 2005277
Jul 2005275
Jun 2005235
May 2005233
Apr 2005214
Mar 2005206
Feb 2005194
Jan 2005174
Dec 2004176
Nov 2004175
Oct 2004158
Sept 2004163
Aug 2004175
Jul 2004168
Jun 2004169
May 2004176
Apr 2004156
Mar 2004155
Feb 2004137
Jan 2004121
Dec 2003118
Nov 2003121
Oct 2003120
Sept 2003134
Aug 2003136
Jul 2003160
Jun 2003176
May 2003176
Apr 2003176
Mar 2003174
Feb 2003173
Jan 2003173
Dec 2002178
Nov 2002162
Oct 2002151
Sept 2002226
Aug 2002220
Jul 2002198
Jun 2002189
May 2002189
Apr 2002190
Mar 2002190
Feb 2002190
Jan 2002164
Dec 2001151
Nov 2001147
Oct 2001152
Sept 2001189
Aug 2001239
Jul 2001205
Jun 2001186
Apr 2001218
Mar 2001171
Feb 2001160
Jan 2001160
Dec 2000156
Nov 2000137
Oct 2000142
Sept 2000141
Aug 2000142
Jul 2000142
Jun 2000138
May 2000133
Apr 2000127
Mar 2000118
Feb 2000118
Jan 2000118
Oct 1999109
Sept 1999127
Aug 1999123
Jul 1999121
Apr 1999112
Mar 1999112
Feb 1999112
Jan 1999115
Dec 1998110
Nov 1998119
Oct 1998124
Sept 1998176
Aug 1998232
Jul 1998223
Jun 1998220
May 1998235
Apr 1998188
Mar 1998174
Feb 1998160
Jan 1998161
Dec 1997164
Nov 1997166
Oct 1997136
Sept 1997179
Aug 1997193
Jul 1997180
Jun 1997178
May 1997181
Apr 1997162
Mar 1997144
Feb 1997139
Jan 1997119
Dec 1996117
Nov 1996117
Oct 1996116
Sept 1996135
Aug 1996147
Jul 1996127
Jun 1996126
May 1996134
Apr 1996118
Mar 1996113
Nov 199594
Oct 199580
Sept 199591
Aug 199598
Jul 199591
Jun 199586
May 199583
Apr 199588
Mar 199588
Feb 199584
Nov 199465
Oct 199495
Aug 1994101
Jun 199492
May 199483
Apr 199483
Mar 199484
Feb 199478
Jan 199483

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-548-73-retail-kg.