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Maize in Ayorou

Tillaberi, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 29% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 25% above the national median of 51 markets (usually 13% above). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

176–283

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

169–293

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 29% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 14% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 176 and 283 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 169 and 293 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Ayorou: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 29% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 14% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 176 and 283 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 169 and 293 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 211–275 237 206–301 355 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 185–276 215 177–287 314 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 176–283 208 162–294 312 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 173–291 210 154–322 326 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 169–293 213 156–351 319 –
Price history (189 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026255
Aug 2026250
Jul 2026273
Jun 2026298
May 2026290
Apr 2026274
Mar 2026236
Feb 2026217
Jan 2026240
Dec 2025291
Nov 2025244
Oct 2025219
Sept 2025292
Aug 2025298
Jul 2025335
Jun 2025338
May 2025341
Apr 2025332
Mar 2025320
Feb 2025345
Jan 2025342
Dec 2024336
Nov 2024281
Oct 2024292
Sept 2024410
Aug 2024467
Jul 2024459
Jun 2024413
May 2024395
Apr 2024366
Mar 2024330
Feb 2024300
Jan 2024288
Dec 2023294
Nov 2023290
Oct 2023294
Sept 2023329
Aug 2023362
Jul 2023362
Jun 2023326
May 2023326
Apr 2023282
Mar 2023264
Feb 2023290
Jan 2023290
Dec 2022308
Oct 2022272
Sept 2022313
Aug 2022347
Jul 2022362
Jun 2022350
Apr 2022326
Mar 2022326
Feb 2022294
Jan 2022254
Dec 2021254
Nov 2021254
Oct 2021254
Sept 2021254
Aug 2021261
Jul 2021258
Jun 2021248
May 2021248
Apr 2021214
Mar 2021221
Feb 2021217
Jan 2021217
Nov 2020214
Oct 2020254
Sept 2020245
Aug 2020216
Jul 2020217
Jun 2020217
May 2020215
Apr 2020182
Mar 2020181
Feb 2020199
Jan 2020184
Dec 2019184
Nov 2019184
Oct 2019184
Sept 2019189
Aug 2019189
Jul 2019216
Jun 2019203
May 2019208
Apr 2019181
Mar 2019189
Feb 2019189
Jan 2019189
Dec 2018181
Nov 2018189
Oct 2018189
Sept 2018224
Aug 2018257
Jul 2018257
May 2018265
Mar 2018227
Feb 2018184
Jan 2018184
Dec 2017206
Nov 2017214
Oct 2017189
Sept 2017227
Aug 2017227
Jul 2017227
Jun 2017227
May 2017227
Apr 2017227
Mar 2017189
Feb 2017189
Jan 2017227
Nov 2016217
Oct 2016217
Sept 2016219
Aug 2016221
Jul 2016217
Jun 2016220
May 2016238
Feb 2016221
Jan 2016217
Dec 2015178
Oct 2015178
Sept 2015178
Aug 2015178
Jul 2015178
Jun 2015178
May 2015178
Apr 2015178
Mar 2015178
Feb 2015178
Jan 2015178
Nov 2014178
Oct 2014178
Sept 2014178
Aug 2014244
Jul 2014244
Jun 2014244
May 2014244
Apr 2014244
Mar 2014244
Feb 2014244
Jan 2014244
Dec 2013178
Oct 2013231
Sept 2013231
Aug 2013231
Jul 2013250
Jun 2013250
May 2013238
Apr 2013234
Mar 2013244
Jan 2013250
Dec 2012238
Nov 2012238
Oct 2012330
Sept 2012269
Aug 2012257
Jul 2012247
Apr 2012224
Dec 2011238
Nov 2011246
Oct 2011224
Sept 2011238
Jul 2011246
Jun 2011259
May 2011256
Apr 2011248
Mar 2011282
Feb 2011288
Jan 2011205
Dec 2010192
Nov 2010197
Oct 2010202
Sept 2010204
Aug 2010205
May 2010234
Apr 2010238
Feb 2010232
Jan 2010227
Dec 2009221
Nov 2009242
Oct 2009259
Sept 2009257
Aug 2009263
Jul 2009264
May 2009273
Apr 2009281
Mar 2009278

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-549-51-retail-kg.