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Rice (imported) in Ayorou

Tillaberi, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 11% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 2% below the national median of 52 markets (usually 3% below). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

427–523

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

405–534

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 11% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 59 markets in Niger, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 427 and 523 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 405 and 534 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (imported), Ayorou: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 11% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 59 markets in Niger, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 427 and 523 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 405 and 534 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (52 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 456–507 485 431–533 574 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 438–512 484 403–558 572 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 427–523 479 408–605 591 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 417–529 477 384–625 552 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 405–534 476 348–638 560 –
Price history (181 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026515
Aug 2026490
Jul 2026508
Jun 2026520
May 2026490
Apr 2026444
Mar 2026450
Feb 2026475
Jan 2026474
Dec 2025475
Nov 2025550
Oct 2025505
Sept 2025550
Aug 2025550
Jul 2025555
Jun 2025568
May 2025533
Feb 2025590
Jan 2025700
Dec 2024617
Nov 2024600
Oct 2024684
Sept 2024701
Aug 2024741
Jul 2024662
Jun 2024654
May 2024618
Feb 2024700
Jan 2024593
Dec 2023550
Nov 2023688
Oct 2023625
Sept 2023583
Aug 2023500
Jul 2023450
Jun 2023450
May 2023450
Feb 2023450
Jan 2023450
Dec 2022450
Nov 2022593
Oct 2022450
Sept 2022450
Aug 2022450
Jul 2022450
Jun 2022450
Apr 2022450
Mar 2022450
Feb 2022450
Jan 2022450
Dec 2021450
Nov 2021450
Oct 2021450
Sept 2021450
Aug 2021450
Jul 2021450
Jun 2021450
May 2021450
Apr 2021450
Mar 2021450
Feb 2021450
Jan 2021450
Dec 2020458
Nov 2020450
Oct 2020450
Sept 2020450
Aug 2020450
Jul 2020450
Jun 2020450
May 2020450
Apr 2020450
Feb 2020450
Jan 2020450
Dec 2019450
Nov 2019450
Oct 2019450
Sept 2019450
Aug 2019450
Jul 2019500
Jun 2019450
May 2019450
Apr 2019450
Mar 2019450
Feb 2019450
Jan 2019450
Dec 2018450
Nov 2018450
Oct 2018450
Sept 2018450
Aug 2018450
Jul 2018450
May 2018450
Mar 2018450
Feb 2018450
Jan 2018450
Dec 2017450
Nov 2017450
Oct 2017450
Sept 2017450
Aug 2017419
Jul 2017450
Jun 2017450
May 2017450
Apr 2017450
Mar 2017450
Feb 2017450
Jan 2017400
Nov 2016450
Oct 2016450
Sept 2016450
Aug 2016450
Jul 2016450
Jun 2016450
Feb 2016450
Jan 2016450
Dec 2015450
Oct 2015450
Sept 2015450
Aug 2015450
Jul 2015450
Jun 2015450
May 2015450
Apr 2015450
Mar 2015450
Feb 2015450
Jan 2015450
Nov 2014450
Oct 2014450
Sept 2014450
Aug 2014450
Jul 2014450
Jun 2014450
Apr 2014450
Mar 2014450
Feb 2014450
Jan 2014450
Dec 2013450
Nov 2013450
Oct 2013450
Sept 2013450
Aug 2013450
Jul 2013450
Jun 2013450
Mar 2013450
Jan 2013450
Dec 2012450
Nov 2012450
Oct 2012450
Sept 2012450
Aug 2012450
Jul 2012450
May 2012450
Dec 2011475
Nov 2011475
Oct 2011475
Sept 2011475
Jul 2011488
Jun 2011475
May 2011475
Apr 2011435
Mar 2011425
Jan 2011425
Dec 2010425
Nov 2010425
Oct 2010425
Sept 2010405
Aug 2010400
Jul 2010450
May 2010450
Apr 2010450
Feb 2010450
Jan 2010450
Dec 2009450
Nov 2009450
Oct 2009450
Sept 2009462
Aug 2009475
Jul 2009475
May 2009475
Apr 2009475
Mar 2009450

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-549-64-retail-kg.