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Sorghum in Ayorou

Tillaberi, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 27% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 5% above the national median of 51 markets (usually 6% above). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

176–281

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

169–291

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 27% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 13% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 176 and 281 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 169 and 291 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Ayorou: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 27% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 13% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 176 and 281 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 169 and 291 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 213–280 242 198–302 337 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 184–275 224 165–286 294 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 176–281 219 153–326 293 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 166–282 211 148–387 277 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 169–291 221 154–410 292 –
Price history (195 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026250
Aug 2026248
Jul 2026296
Jun 2026332
May 2026285
Apr 2026277
Mar 2026266
Feb 2026250
Jan 2026251
Dec 2025249
Nov 2025217
Oct 2025230
Sept 2025269
Aug 2025288
Jul 2025302
Jun 2025290
May 2025284
Apr 2025285
Mar 2025289
Feb 2025304
Jan 2025264
Dec 2024299
Nov 2024304
Oct 2024286
Sept 2024393
Aug 2024460
Jul 2024451
Jun 2024406
May 2024384
Apr 2024366
Mar 2024339
Feb 2024284
Jan 2024291
Dec 2023254
Nov 2023275
Oct 2023263
Sept 2023317
Aug 2023352
Jul 2023357
Jun 2023286
May 2023286
Apr 2023250
Mar 2023250
Feb 2023250
Jan 2023250
Dec 2022246
Nov 2022250
Oct 2022243
Sept 2022282
Aug 2022329
Jul 2022352
Jun 2022330
Apr 2022338
Mar 2022326
Feb 2022286
Jan 2022259
Dec 2021250
Nov 2021246
Oct 2021237
Sept 2021246
Aug 2021254
Jul 2021254
Jun 2021249
May 2021249
Apr 2021217
Mar 2021217
Feb 2021214
Jan 2021214
Dec 2020159
Nov 2020217
Oct 2020254
Sept 2020254
Aug 2020230
Jul 2020214
Jun 2020215
May 2020196
Apr 2020219
Mar 2020216
Feb 2020220
Jan 2020182
Dec 2019181
Nov 2019182
Oct 2019184
Sept 2019184
Aug 2019181
Jul 2019146
Jun 2019219
May 2019181
Apr 2019176
Mar 2019189
Feb 2019189
Jan 2019189
Dec 2018184
Nov 2018174
Oct 2018174
Sept 2018224
Aug 2018254
Jul 2018254
May 2018261
Mar 2018224
Feb 2018221
Jan 2018184
Dec 2017180
Oct 2017189
Sept 2017246
Aug 2017227
Jul 2017261
Jun 2017261
May 2017261
Apr 2017224
Mar 2017187
Feb 2017187
Jan 2017187
Nov 2016224
Oct 2016224
Sept 2016223
Aug 2016219
Jul 2016217
Jun 2016208
May 2016221
Apr 2016221
Mar 2016223
Feb 2016221
Jan 2016217
Dec 2015217
Oct 2015189
Sept 2015227
Aug 2015224
Jul 2015224
Jun 2015227
May 2015220
Apr 2015221
Mar 2015197
Feb 2015189
Jan 2015184
Nov 2014253
Oct 2014186
Sept 2014217
Aug 2014233
Jul 2014227
Jun 2014227
May 2014225
Apr 2014218
Mar 2014221
Feb 2014217
Jan 2014240
Dec 2013234
Nov 2013231
Oct 2013229
Sept 2013227
Aug 2013257
Jul 2013258
Jun 2013234
May 2013236
Apr 2013242
Mar 2013238
Jan 2013238
Dec 2012228
Nov 2012217
Oct 2012260
Sept 2012258
Aug 2012278
Jul 2012275
May 2012282
Apr 2012224
Dec 2011234
Nov 2011248
Oct 2011179
Sept 2011203
Jul 2011232
Jun 2011223
May 2011206
Apr 2011198
Mar 2011199
Feb 2011204
Jan 2011206
Dec 2010189
Nov 2010194
Oct 2010201
Sept 2010217
Aug 2010227
Jul 2010231
May 2010239
Apr 2010240
Feb 2010232
Jan 2010224
Dec 2009215
Nov 2009202
Oct 2009195
Sept 2009233
Aug 2009269
Jul 2009259
May 2009229
Apr 2009227
Mar 2009220

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-549-65-retail-kg.