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Millet in Ayorou

Tillaberi, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 28% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 4% above the national median of 53 markets (usually 10% above). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

191–299

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

185–320

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 28% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 11% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 191 and 299 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 185 and 320 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Ayorou: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 28% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 11% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 191 and 299 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 185 and 320 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (53 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 231–306 266 210–323 357 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 198–294 237 179–335 313 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 191–299 232 182–324 303 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 195–310 234 178–326 316 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 185–320 238 156–342 325 –
Price history (195 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026290
Aug 2026282
Jul 2026331
Jun 2026349
May 2026316
Apr 2026279
Mar 2026283
Feb 2026246
Jan 2026259
Dec 2025271
Nov 2025255
Oct 2025241
Sept 2025273
Aug 2025302
Jul 2025316
Jun 2025316
May 2025316
Apr 2025316
Mar 2025314
Feb 2025338
Jan 2025307
Dec 2024323
Nov 2024344
Oct 2024331
Sept 2024409
Aug 2024483
Jul 2024463
Jun 2024410
May 2024384
Apr 2024376
Mar 2024347
Feb 2024318
Jan 2024316
Dec 2023296
Nov 2023282
Oct 2023282
Sept 2023352
Aug 2023370
Jul 2023352
Jun 2023352
May 2023352
Apr 2023317
Mar 2023317
Feb 2023317
Jan 2023317
Dec 2022315
Nov 2022237
Oct 2022300
Sept 2022362
Aug 2022362
Jul 2022357
Jun 2022345
Apr 2022352
Mar 2022317
Feb 2022317
Jan 2022282
Dec 2021282
Nov 2021246
Oct 2021239
Sept 2021290
Aug 2021282
Jul 2021282
Jun 2021249
May 2021283
Apr 2021246
Mar 2021233
Feb 2021246
Jan 2021246
Dec 2020188
Nov 2020246
Oct 2020286
Sept 2020286
Aug 2020357
Jul 2020246
Jun 2020249
May 2020254
Apr 2020211
Mar 2020220
Feb 2020211
Jan 2020212
Dec 2019224
Nov 2019206
Oct 2019214
Sept 2019212
Jul 2019154
Jun 2019237
May 2019211
Apr 2019214
Mar 2019217
Feb 2019217
Jan 2019217
Dec 2018211
Nov 2018211
Oct 2018211
Sept 2018254
Aug 2018290
Jul 2018290
May 2018290
Mar 2018246
Feb 2018250
Jan 2018254
Dec 2017249
Nov 2017214
Oct 2017217
Sept 2017236
Aug 2017290
Jul 2017290
Jun 2017290
May 2017290
Apr 2017254
Mar 2017217
Feb 2017217
Jan 2017217
Nov 2016214
Oct 2016214
Sept 2016239
Aug 2016250
Jul 2016211
Jun 2016216
May 2016217
Apr 2016217
Mar 2016217
Feb 2016217
Jan 2016217
Dec 2015217
Oct 2015214
Sept 2015214
Aug 2015218
Jul 2015217
Jun 2015217
May 2015211
Apr 2015211
Mar 2015208
Feb 2015211
Jan 2015203
Nov 2014216
Oct 2014217
Sept 2014240
Aug 2014240
Jul 2014254
Jun 2014254
May 2014246
Apr 2014238
Mar 2014236
Feb 2014242
Jan 2014214
Dec 2013214
Nov 2013211
Oct 2013213
Sept 2013250
Aug 2013257
Jul 2013257
Jun 2013257
May 2013246
Apr 2013243
Mar 2013261
Jan 2013211
Dec 2012231
Nov 2012231
Oct 2012283
Sept 2012297
Aug 2012348
Jul 2012329
May 2012339
Apr 2012283
Dec 2011249
Nov 2011214
Oct 2011219
Sept 2011218
Jul 2011227
Jun 2011229
May 2011222
Apr 2011233
Mar 2011219
Feb 2011214
Jan 2011195
Dec 2010181
Nov 2010188
Oct 2010220
Sept 2010247
Aug 2010260
Jul 2010268
May 2010231
Apr 2010234
Feb 2010223
Jan 2010226
Dec 2009224
Nov 2009224
Oct 2009190
Sept 2009241
Aug 2009261
Jul 2009247
May 2009224
Apr 2009228
Mar 2009232

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-549-73-retail-kg.