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Maize in Badaguichiri

Tahoua, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 32% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was about the same as the national median of 51 markets (usually 2% below). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

152–216

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

145–235

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 32% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 4% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 152 and 216 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 145 and 235 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Badaguichiri: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 32% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 4% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 152 and 216 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 145 and 235 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 181–218 196 166–242 303 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 158–211 178 132–228 258 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 152–216 175 129–244 256 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 149–223 175 127–271 258 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 145–235 179 125–334 272 –
Price history (185 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026200
Aug 2026200
Jul 2026212
Jun 2026205
May 2026193
Apr 2026200
Mar 2026195
Feb 2026210
Jan 2026192
Dec 2025200
Nov 2025200
Oct 2025212
Sept 2025240
Aug 2025273
Jul 2025295
Jun 2025270
May 2025280
Apr 2025280
Mar 2025290
Feb 2025297
Jan 2025295
Dec 2024292
Nov 2024266
Oct 2024264
Sept 2024350
Aug 2024406
Jul 2024431
Jun 2024362
May 2024372
Apr 2024335
Mar 2024312
Feb 2024293
Jan 2024274
Dec 2023260
Nov 2023282
Oct 2023293
Sept 2023399
Aug 2023333
Jul 2023302
Jun 2023262
May 2023262
Apr 2023262
Feb 2023265
Oct 2022242
Sept 2022262
Aug 2022282
Jul 2022282
Jun 2022282
Apr 2022283
Mar 2022283
Feb 2022283
Jan 2022283
Dec 2021250
Nov 2021223
Oct 2021240
Sept 2021283
Aug 2021315
Jul 2021315
Jun 2021267
May 2021267
Apr 2021272
Mar 2021266
Feb 2021243
Jan 2021284
Nov 2020223
Oct 2020222
Sept 2020255
Aug 2020238
Jul 2020229
Apr 2020223
Mar 2020202
Feb 2020260
Jan 2020204
Dec 2019208
Nov 2019207
Oct 2019190
Sept 2019207
Aug 2019195
Jul 2019165
Jun 2019212
May 2019200
Apr 2019200
Mar 2019202
Feb 2019194
Jan 2019198
Dec 2018208
Nov 2018224
Oct 2018224
Sept 2018226
Aug 2018224
Jul 2018224
Mar 2018204
Feb 2018204
Jan 2018227
Dec 2017210
Nov 2017210
Oct 2017202
Sept 2017253
Aug 2017243
Jul 2017243
Jun 2017243
May 2017243
Apr 2017255
Mar 2017206
Feb 2017245
Jan 2017224
Nov 2016202
Oct 2016202
Sept 2016252
Aug 2016242
Jun 2016223
May 2016202
Apr 2016202
Mar 2016202
Feb 2016202
Jan 2016202
Dec 2015202
Oct 2015204
Sept 2015206
Jul 2015204
Jun 2015195
May 2015202
Apr 2015195
Mar 2015189
Feb 2015196
Jan 2015206
Nov 2014205
Oct 2014199
Sept 2014204
Aug 2014204
Jul 2014204
May 2014226
Mar 2014224
Feb 2014246
Jan 2014216
Dec 2013239
Nov 2013224
Oct 2013226
Sept 2013235
Aug 2013226
Jul 2013265
Jun 2013255
May 2013265
Apr 2013261
Mar 2013240
Jan 2013222
Dec 2012227
Nov 2012226
Oct 2012226
Sept 2012247
Aug 2012226
Jul 2012226
May 2012226
Apr 2012227
Dec 2011202
Nov 2011216
Oct 2011208
Sept 2011208
Jul 2011220
Jun 2011227
May 2011224
Apr 2011216
Mar 2011211
Jan 2011205
Dec 2010197
Oct 2010198
Sept 2010202
Jun 2010206
May 2010199
Apr 2010173
Mar 2010189
Feb 2010194
Jan 2010202
Dec 2009205
Nov 2009200
Oct 2009180
Sept 2009210
Aug 2009248
Jul 2009258
Jun 2009216
May 2009230
Apr 2009226
Mar 2009223
Feb 2009225
Jan 2009234

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-550-51-retail-kg.