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Rice (imported) in Badaguichiri

Tahoua, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 12% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was about the same as the national median of 52 markets (usually about the same). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

439–542

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

423–562

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 12% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 59 markets in Niger, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 439 and 542 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 423 and 562 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (imported), Badaguichiri: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 12% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 59 markets in Niger, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 439 and 542 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 423 and 562 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (52 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 475–521 501 450–552 588 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 457–522 499 425–588 584 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 439–542 493 425–651 606 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 430–555 492 417–670 609 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 423–562 492 384–707 603 –
Price history (188 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026500
Aug 2026505
Jul 2026500
Jun 2026520
May 2026500
Apr 2026525
Mar 2026500
Feb 2026470
Jan 2026500
Dec 2025495
Nov 2025508
Oct 2025500
Sept 2025545
Aug 2025550
Jul 2025600
Jun 2025573
May 2025600
Apr 2025650
Mar 2025670
Feb 2025690
Jan 2025685
Dec 2024750
Nov 2024659
Oct 2024667
Sept 2024652
Aug 2024700
Jul 2024700
Jun 2024695
May 2024580
Apr 2024616
Mar 2024607
Feb 2024607
Jan 2024620
Dec 2023700
Nov 2023600
Oct 2023600
Sept 2023600
Aug 2023500
Jul 2023450
Jun 2023450
May 2023450
Apr 2023450
Feb 2023450
Nov 2022650
Oct 2022450
Sept 2022450
Aug 2022450
Jul 2022450
Jun 2022450
Apr 2022450
Mar 2022450
Feb 2022450
Jan 2022450
Dec 2021450
Nov 2021450
Oct 2021450
Sept 2021450
Aug 2021450
Jul 2021450
Jun 2021450
May 2021450
Apr 2021450
Mar 2021450
Feb 2021450
Jan 2021500
Dec 2020457
Nov 2020450
Oct 2020450
Sept 2020450
Aug 2020483
Jul 2020488
Apr 2020450
Mar 2020450
Feb 2020450
Jan 2020450
Dec 2019450
Nov 2019450
Oct 2019450
Sept 2019450
Aug 2019450
Jul 2019450
Jun 2019450
May 2019450
Apr 2019450
Mar 2019450
Feb 2019450
Jan 2019450
Dec 2018450
Nov 2018450
Oct 2018450
Sept 2018450
Aug 2018450
Jul 2018450
Mar 2018450
Feb 2018450
Jan 2018450
Dec 2017450
Nov 2017450
Oct 2017450
Sept 2017450
Aug 2017450
Jul 2017450
Jun 2017450
May 2017450
Apr 2017450
Mar 2017500
Feb 2017450
Jan 2017450
Nov 2016450
Oct 2016450
Sept 2016450
Aug 2016450
Jun 2016450
May 2016450
Feb 2016450
Jan 2016450
Dec 2015450
Oct 2015450
Sept 2015450
Jul 2015450
Jun 2015450
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Apr 2015450
Mar 2015450
Feb 2015450
Jan 2015450
Nov 2014450
Oct 2014450
Sept 2014450
Aug 2014450
Jul 2014450
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Mar 2014450
Feb 2014467
Jan 2014450
Dec 2013450
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Apr 2013450
Mar 2013450
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Dec 2012450
Nov 2012400
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Sept 2012400
Aug 2012450
Jul 2012450
May 2012450
Apr 2012450
Dec 2011450
Nov 2011450
Oct 2011450
Sept 2011450
Jul 2011450
Jun 2011500
May 2011450
Apr 2011450
Mar 2011450
Jan 2011462
Dec 2010450
Nov 2010400
Oct 2010400
Sept 2010400
Aug 2010400
Jul 2010400
Jun 2010375
May 2010400
Apr 2010400
Mar 2010400
Feb 2010400
Jan 2010400
Dec 2009400
Nov 2009400
Oct 2009440
Sept 2009425
Aug 2009450
Jul 2009450
Jun 2009425
May 2009425
Apr 2009425
Mar 2009425
Feb 2009425
Jan 2009450

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-550-64-retail-kg.