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Sorghum in Badaguichiri

Tahoua, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 26% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 11% below the national median of 51 markets (usually 14% below). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

118–213

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

126–228

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 26% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 26% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 118 and 213 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 126 and 228 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Badaguichiri: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 26% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 26% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 118 and 213 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 126 and 228 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 161–227 191 148–244 277 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 134–212 160 110–231 219 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 118–213 150 101–254 207 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 119–217 150 99.8–293 204 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 126–228 162 117–333 222 –
Price history (188 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026210
Aug 2026210
Jul 2026236
Jun 2026200
May 2026167
Apr 2026160
Mar 2026160
Feb 2026165
Jan 2026156
Dec 2025148
Nov 2025170
Oct 2025190
Sept 2025195
Aug 2025217
Jul 2025236
Jun 2025240
May 2025240
Apr 2025240
Mar 2025260
Feb 2025250
Jan 2025250
Dec 2024220
Nov 2024216
Oct 2024245
Sept 2024375
Aug 2024398
Jul 2024428
Jun 2024360
May 2024327
Apr 2024312
Mar 2024296
Feb 2024260
Jan 2024275
Dec 2023237
Nov 2023240
Oct 2023293
Sept 2023347
Aug 2023343
Jul 2023282
Jun 2023262
May 2023232
Apr 2023223
Feb 2023240
Nov 2022280
Oct 2022229
Sept 2022243
Aug 2022283
Jul 2022263
Jun 2022262
Apr 2022262
Mar 2022262
Feb 2022262
Jan 2022242
Dec 2021214
Nov 2021260
Oct 2021260
Sept 2021272
Aug 2021305
Jul 2021305
Jun 2021243
May 2021243
Apr 2021243
Mar 2021232
Feb 2021242
Jan 2021217
Nov 2020151
Oct 2020152
Sept 2020234
Aug 2020301
Jul 2020274
Apr 2020180
Mar 2020193
Feb 2020182
Jan 2020158
Dec 2019141
Nov 2019140
Oct 2019133
Sept 2019146
Aug 2019146
Jul 2019155
Jun 2019166
May 2019162
Apr 2019160
Mar 2019161
Feb 2019162
Jan 2019144
Dec 2018169
Nov 2018148
Oct 2018181
Sept 2018223
Aug 2018202
Jul 2018224
Mar 2018202
Feb 2018182
Jan 2018183
Dec 2017188
Nov 2017172
Oct 2017141
Sept 2017281
Aug 2017303
Jul 2017282
Jun 2017282
May 2017283
Apr 2017275
Mar 2017224
Feb 2017224
Jan 2017203
Nov 2016141
Oct 2016202
Sept 2016252
Aug 2016242
Jun 2016202
May 2016152
Apr 2016142
Mar 2016142
Feb 2016142
Jan 2016141
Dec 2015129
Oct 2015162
Sept 2015161
Jul 2015172
Jun 2015162
May 2015163
Apr 2015153
Mar 2015142
Feb 2015142
Jan 2015143
Nov 2014164
Oct 2014140
Sept 2014168
Aug 2014200
Jul 2014205
May 2014222
Mar 2014199
Feb 2014212
Jan 2014181
Dec 2013221
Nov 2013181
Sept 2013270
Aug 2013271
Jul 2013242
Jun 2013239
May 2013231
Apr 2013234
Mar 2013193
Jan 2013182
Dec 2012181
Nov 2012182
Oct 2012183
Sept 2012204
Aug 2012198
Jul 2012315
May 2012211
Apr 2012196
Dec 2011171
Nov 2011146
Oct 2011137
Sept 2011126
Jul 2011173
Jun 2011172
May 2011156
Apr 2011148
Mar 2011134
Jan 2011122
Dec 2010119
Nov 2010114
Oct 2010120
Sept 2010136
Aug 2010210
Jul 2010202
Jun 2010178
May 2010181
Apr 2010174
Mar 2010168
Feb 2010176
Jan 2010161
Dec 2009159
Nov 2009160
Oct 2009143
Sept 2009176
Aug 2009190
Jul 2009191
Jun 2009165
May 2009191
Apr 2009158
Mar 2009154
Feb 2009144
Jan 2009136

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-550-65-retail-kg.