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Millet in Badaguichiri

Tahoua, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 20% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 10% below the national median of 53 markets (usually 9% below). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

146–246

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

156–260

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

3%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 20% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 18% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 146 and 246 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 156 and 260 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Badaguichiri: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 20% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 18% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 146 and 246 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 156 and 260 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (53 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 195–253 222 186–265 285 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 160–241 196 152–253 231 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 146–246 182 135–253 207 3%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 166–266 202 146–280 261 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 156–260 198 140–313 238 –
Price history (161 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026230
Aug 2026245
Jul 2026280
Jun 2026240
May 2026207
Apr 2026200
Mar 2026200
Feb 2026210
Jan 2026192
Oct 2025192
Sept 2025220
Aug 2025250
Jul 2025280
Jun 2025280
May 2025280
Apr 2025280
Mar 2025295
Feb 2025290
Jan 2025275
Oct 2024265
Sept 2024345
Aug 2024420
Jul 2024432
Jun 2024360
May 2024340
Apr 2024328
Mar 2024299
Feb 2024265
Jan 2024256
Oct 2023273
Aug 2023347
Jul 2023298
Jun 2023278
May 2023258
Apr 2023258
Feb 2023255
Oct 2022242
Sept 2022262
Aug 2022302
Jul 2022298
Jun 2022299
Apr 2022289
Mar 2022278
Feb 2022278
Jan 2022260
Dec 2021270
Sept 2021281
Aug 2021304
Jul 2021304
Jun 2021274
May 2021260
Apr 2021251
Mar 2021243
Feb 2021231
Jan 2021204
Dec 2020244
Nov 2020179
Sept 2020253
Aug 2020300
Jul 2020288
Apr 2020207
Mar 2020198
Feb 2020186
Jan 2020167
Nov 2019158
Oct 2019147
Aug 2019166
Jul 2019163
Jun 2019190
May 2019181
Apr 2019187
Mar 2019186
Feb 2019185
Jan 2019165
Dec 2018183
Sept 2018223
Aug 2018220
Jul 2018260
Mar 2018221
Feb 2018221
Jan 2018200
Nov 2017185
Sept 2017237
Aug 2017322
Jul 2017317
Jun 2017300
May 2017299
Apr 2017292
Mar 2017241
Feb 2017250
Jan 2017220
Nov 2016183
Oct 2016178
Aug 2016258
Jun 2016220
May 2016170
Apr 2016160
Mar 2016159
Feb 2016158
Jan 2016158
Oct 2015179
Sept 2015181
Jul 2015195
Jun 2015182
May 2015181
Apr 2015168
Mar 2015161
Feb 2015160
Jan 2015160
Aug 2014225
Jul 2014219
May 2014238
Mar 2014216
Feb 2014247
Jan 2014218
Dec 2013227
Nov 2013199
Oct 2013209
Sept 2013298
Aug 2013299
Jul 2013282
Jun 2013272
May 2013267
Apr 2013269
Mar 2013260
Jan 2013236
Dec 2012239
Sept 2012243
Aug 2012265
Jul 2012299
May 2012259
Apr 2012242
Nov 2011183
Sept 2011157
Jul 2011188
Jun 2011186
May 2011186
Apr 2011194
Jan 2011149
Dec 2010161
Nov 2010133
Sept 2010171
Aug 2010232
Jul 2010220
Jun 2010227
May 2010206
Apr 2010178
Mar 2010184
Feb 2010185
Jan 2010176
Dec 2009176
Nov 2009176
Sept 2009182
Aug 2009196
Jul 2009188
Jun 2009166
May 2009165
Apr 2009168
Mar 2009163
Feb 2009166
Jan 2009171

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-550-73-retail-kg.