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Rice (imported) in Bankilare

Tillaberi, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 0% above the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 29% above the national median of 52 markets (usually 9% above). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

499–675

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

488–691

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

3%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was at the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 17% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 59 markets in Niger, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 499 and 675 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 488 and 691 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (imported), Bankilare: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was at the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 17% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 59 markets in Niger, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 499 and 675 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 488 and 691 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).02505007501,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (52 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 545–652 618 532–688 658 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 521–655 612 477–741 647 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 499–675 600 483–777 662 3%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 484–686 598 478–789 664 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 488–691 594 466–840 652 –
Price history (189 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026643
Aug 2026643
Jul 2026600
Jun 2026553
May 2026550
Apr 2026571
Mar 2026571
Feb 2026524
Jan 2026614
Dec 2025643
Nov 2025643
Oct 2025629
Sept 2025643
Aug 2025600
Jul 2025589
Jun 2025681
May 2025686
Apr 2025667
Mar 2025690
Feb 2025721
Dec 2024657
Nov 2024661
Oct 2024714
Sept 2024714
Aug 2024716
Jul 2024669
Jun 2024675
May 2024667
Apr 2024841
Mar 2024650
Feb 2024797
Jan 2024719
Dec 2023580
Nov 2023700
Oct 2023583
Sept 2023580
Aug 2023507
Jul 2023435
Jun 2023435
May 2023471
Apr 2023471
Mar 2023447
Feb 2023235Data error
Jan 2023435
Dec 2022435
Nov 2022450
Oct 2022429
Sept 2022466
Aug 2022515
Jul 2022507
Jun 2022507
May 2022435
Apr 2022429
Mar 2022434
Feb 2022434
Jan 2022435
Dec 2021435
Nov 2021435
Oct 2021429
Sept 2021423
Aug 2021435
Jul 2021435
Jun 2021435
May 2021435
Apr 2021435
Feb 2021429
Jan 2021429
Dec 2020630
Nov 2020435
Oct 2020423
Sept 2020458
Aug 2020465
Jul 2020435
Jun 2020432
May 2020429
Apr 2020435
Mar 2020435
Feb 2020423
Jan 2020422
Dec 2019395
Nov 2019399
Oct 2019387
Sept 2019390
Aug 2019393
Jul 2019500
Jun 2019435
May 2019435
Apr 2019393
Mar 2019400
Oct 2018429
Sept 2018429
Aug 2018429
Jun 2018423
May 2018423
Apr 2018423
Feb 2018423
Jan 2018423
Dec 2017411
Nov 2017411
Oct 2017411
Sept 2017411
Jun 2017423
May 2017423
Apr 2017420
Mar 2017417
Feb 2017411
Jan 2017411
Nov 2016423
Oct 2016423
Sept 2016423
Aug 2016423
Jul 2016423
Jun 2016423
May 2016423
Apr 2016423
Mar 2016423
Jan 2016411
Dec 2015411
Oct 2015411
Sept 2015410
Aug 2015423
Jul 2015422
Jun 2015422
May 2015422
Apr 2015423
Mar 2015415
Feb 2015400
Jan 2015400
Nov 2014417
Oct 2014411
Sept 2014411
Aug 2014420
Jul 2014423
Jun 2014423
May 2014411
Apr 2014411
Mar 2014423
Feb 2014423
Jan 2014409
Dec 2013405
Nov 2013411
Oct 2013413
Sept 2013400
Aug 2013420
Jul 2013426
Jun 2013416
May 2013400
Apr 2013400
Mar 2013400
Jan 2013411
Dec 2012420
Nov 2012411
Oct 2012411
Sept 2012445
Aug 2012445
Jul 2012445
May 2012445
Apr 2012444
Dec 2011440
Nov 2011438
Oct 2011439
Sept 2011439
Jul 2011439
Jun 2011433
May 2011454
Apr 2011433
Mar 2011433
Jan 2011428
Dec 2010442
Nov 2010439
Oct 2010439
Sept 2010446
Aug 2010447
Jul 2010439
Jun 2010439
May 2010445
Apr 2010433
Feb 2010428
Jan 2010431
Dec 2009433
Nov 2009439
Oct 2009439
Sept 2009473
Aug 2009461
Jul 2009467
Jun 2009439
May 2009461
Apr 2009439
Mar 2009439

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-553-64-retail-kg.