Staple Signals Français

Home › Niger

Sorghum in Bankilare

Tillaberi, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 27% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 16% above the national median of 51 markets (usually 14% above). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

172–292

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

180–315

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 27% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 6% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 172 and 292 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 180 and 315 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Bankilare: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 27% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 6% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 172 and 292 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 180 and 315 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 232–303 259 222–323 354 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 198–297 233 172–322 300 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 172–292 215 149–318 273 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 176–296 217 163–352 278 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 180–315 231 152–424 298 –
Price history (162 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026275
Aug 2026275
Jul 2026274
Jun 2026295
May 2026292
Apr 2026261
Mar 2026261
Feb 2026236
Jan 2026246
Dec 2025261
Nov 2025261
Oct 2025259
Sept 2025292
Aug 2025330
Jul 2025336
Jun 2025337
May 2025299
Apr 2025243
Mar 2025261
Feb 2025261
Dec 2024275
Sept 2024460
Aug 2024487
Jul 2024408
Jun 2024375
May 2024364
Apr 2024351
Mar 2024354
Feb 2024323
Jan 2024328
Dec 2023250
Nov 2023250
Oct 2023303
Sept 2023379
Aug 2023379
Jul 2023328
Jun 2023303
May 2023299
Apr 2023286
Mar 2023284
Feb 2023261
Jan 2023236
Dec 2022187
Nov 2022232
Oct 2022285
Sept 2022311
Aug 2022336
Jul 2022303
Jun 2022299
May 2022299
Apr 2022308
Mar 2022299
Feb 2022299
Jan 2022261
Dec 2021224
Sept 2021269
Aug 2021270
Jul 2021258
Jun 2021221
May 2021221
Feb 2021177
Jan 2021179
Dec 2020256
Oct 2020217
Sept 2020255
Aug 2020277
Jul 2020252
Jun 2020232
May 2020188
Mar 2020187
Feb 2020181
Jan 2020167
Dec 2019162
Nov 2019159
Oct 2019164
Sept 2019174
Jul 2019211
Jun 2019189
May 2019188
Apr 2019188
Mar 2019199
Sept 2018214
Aug 2018235
Jun 2018239
May 2018250
Feb 2018219
Jan 2018219
Dec 2017179
Sept 2017217
Jun 2017237
May 2017230
Apr 2017230
Mar 2017224
Feb 2017203
Jan 2017203
Nov 2016181
Oct 2016195
Sept 2016221
Aug 2016216
Jul 2016212
Jun 2016210
May 2016181
Oct 2015217
Sept 2015217
Aug 2015217
Jul 2015217
Jun 2015217
May 2015217
Mar 2015217
Feb 2015217
Jan 2015217
Nov 2014217
Oct 2014217
Sept 2014217
Aug 2014217
Jul 2014217
Jun 2014217
May 2014217
Apr 2014217
Mar 2014217
Feb 2014217
Jan 2014217
Dec 2013217
Nov 2013217
Oct 2013217
Sept 2013217
Aug 2013217
Jul 2013217
Jun 2013217
May 2013185
Dec 2012278
Nov 2012278
Oct 2012292
Sept 2012317
Aug 2012367
Jul 2012271
May 2012243
Apr 2012232
Dec 2011221
Nov 2011160
Oct 2011167
Sept 2011180
Jul 2011183
Jun 2011180
May 2011195
Apr 2011173
Mar 2011171
Sept 2010214
Aug 2010214
Jul 2010203
Jun 2010196
May 2010206
Apr 2010222
Feb 2010198
Oct 2009191
Sept 2009271
Aug 2009225
Jul 2009215
Jun 2009207
May 2009182
Apr 2009174
Mar 2009174

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-553-65-retail-kg.