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Millet in Bankilare

Tillaberi, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 8% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 37% above the national median of 53 markets (usually 15% above). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

206–360

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

228–389

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

17%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 8% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 25% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 206 and 360 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 228 and 389 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 17%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Bankilare: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 8% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 25% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 206 and 360 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 228 and 389 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 17%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (53 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 526); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 302–388 351 254–412 402 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 238–356 286 190–386 316 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 206–360 268 173–381 291 17%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 223–370 282 182–453 311 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 228–389 289 189–526 332 –
Price history (168 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026360
Aug 2026374
Jul 2026369
Jun 2026322
May 2026300
Apr 2026299
Mar 2026297
Feb 2026297
Jan 2026291
Dec 2025297
Nov 2025297
Oct 2025295
Sept 2025333
Aug 2025368
Jul 2025368
Jun 2025370
May 2025327
Apr 2025299
Mar 2025296
Feb 2025297
Dec 2024289
Nov 2024300
Oct 2024320
Sept 2024457
Aug 2024437
Jul 2024444
Jun 2024411
May 2024380
Apr 2024341
Mar 2024357
Feb 2024336
Jan 2024328
Dec 2023270
Nov 2023223
Oct 2023299
Sept 2023410
Aug 2023393
Jul 2023361
Jun 2023336
May 2023329
Apr 2023315
Mar 2023290
Feb 2023268
Jan 2023259
Dec 2022224
Nov 2022224
Oct 2022333
Sept 2022388
Aug 2022417
Jul 2022410
Jun 2022373
May 2022373
Apr 2022366
Mar 2022336
Feb 2022336
Jan 2022299
Dec 2021274
Nov 2021224
Oct 2021253
Sept 2021277
Aug 2021291
Jul 2021272
Jun 2021256
May 2021259
Apr 2021254
Feb 2021220
Jan 2021217
Dec 2020254
Nov 2020184
Oct 2020235
Sept 2020299
Aug 2020315
Jul 2020270
Jun 2020261
May 2020245
Apr 2020230
Mar 2020224
Feb 2020224
Jan 2020222
Dec 2019213
Nov 2019207
Oct 2019218
Sept 2019224
Aug 2019224
Jul 2019246
Jun 2019230
May 2019228
Apr 2019239
Mar 2019239
Oct 2018181
Sept 2018277
Aug 2018286
Jun 2018288
May 2018293
Apr 2018297
Feb 2018252
Jan 2018252
Dec 2017208
Nov 2017217
Oct 2017174
Sept 2017238
Jun 2017275
May 2017265
Apr 2017246
Mar 2017231
Feb 2017218
Jan 2017211
Nov 2016211
Oct 2016206
Sept 2016301
Aug 2016254
Jul 2016272
Jun 2016250
May 2016211
Oct 2015207
Sept 2015213
Aug 2015231
Jul 2015229
Jun 2015256
May 2015216
Apr 2015197
Jan 2015168
Nov 2014174
Oct 2014164
Sept 2014233
Aug 2014253
Jul 2014252
Jun 2014250
May 2014254
Apr 2014217
Mar 2014214
Jan 2014211
Sept 2013248
Aug 2013250
Jul 2013248
Jun 2013246
May 2013214
Nov 2012156
Oct 2012145
Sept 2012362
Aug 2012360
Jul 2012348
May 2012333
Apr 2012301
Dec 2011257
Nov 2011182
Oct 2011184
Sept 2011194
Jul 2011194
Jun 2011196
May 2011211
Apr 2011188
Mar 2011184
Oct 2010151
Sept 2010232
Aug 2010248
Jul 2010235
Jun 2010214
May 2010211
Apr 2010224
Oct 2009217
Sept 2009234
Aug 2009250
Jul 2009242
Jun 2009198
May 2009211
Apr 2009211
Mar 2009211

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-553-73-retail-kg.