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Maize in Birnin Gaoure

Dosso, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 29% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 5% below the national median of 51 markets (usually 11% below). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

142–206

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

135–219

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 29% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 142 and 206 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 135 and 219 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Birnin Gaoure: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 29% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 142 and 206 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 135 and 219 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 169–205 186 161–231 271 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 155–203 172 130–220 243 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 142–206 165 131–239 230 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 139–212 164 124–284 229 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 135–219 167 112–298 237 –
Price history (200 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026190
Aug 2026190
Jul 2026205
Jun 2026195
May 2026190
Apr 2026190
Mar 2026190
Feb 2026190
Jan 2026190
Dec 2025190
Nov 2025190
Oct 2025200
Sept 2025209
Aug 2025232
Jul 2025247
Jun 2025247
May 2025250
Apr 2025259
Mar 2025260
Feb 2025269
Jan 2025267
Dec 2024251
Nov 2024226
Oct 2024250
Sept 2024318
Aug 2024363
Jul 2024385
Jun 2024370
May 2024341
Apr 2024311
Mar 2024285
Feb 2024259
Jan 2024250
Dec 2023245
Nov 2023230
Oct 2023250
Sept 2023370
Aug 2023319
Jul 2023278
Jun 2023232
May 2023222
Apr 2023222
Mar 2023222
Feb 2023222
Jan 2023222
Dec 2022222
Nov 2022236
Oct 2022222
Sept 2022222
Aug 2022222
Jul 2022222
Jun 2022222
May 2022236
Apr 2022241
Mar 2022241
Feb 2022218
Jan 2022185
Dec 2021185
Nov 2021196
Oct 2021218
Sept 2021255
Aug 2021259
Jul 2021237
Jun 2021222
May 2021222
Apr 2021222
Mar 2021222
Feb 2021222
Jan 2021200
Dec 2020181
Nov 2020172
Oct 2020185
Sept 2020204
Aug 2020204
Jul 2020199
Jun 2020185
May 2020174
Apr 2020167
Mar 2020167
Feb 2020266
Jan 2020167
Dec 2019167
Nov 2019167
Oct 2019167
Sept 2019167
Aug 2019167
Jul 2019167
Jun 2019167
May 2019167
Apr 2019167
Mar 2019167
Feb 2019167
Jan 2019174
Dec 2018167
Nov 2018167
Oct 2018185
Sept 2018185
Aug 2018206
Jul 2018204
May 2018204
Apr 2018204
Mar 2018198
Feb 2018167
Jan 2018167
Dec 2017167
Oct 2017185
Aug 2017222
Jul 2017222
Jun 2017222
May 2017222
Apr 2017222
Mar 2017204
Feb 2017204
Jan 2017185
Nov 2016185
Oct 2016185
Sept 2016204
Aug 2016210
Jul 2016185
Jun 2016222
May 2016200
Apr 2016188
Mar 2016186
Feb 2016200
Jan 2016200
Dec 2015190
Oct 2015217
Sept 2015215
Aug 2015214
Jul 2015202
Jun 2015201
May 2015192
Apr 2015183
Mar 2015169
Feb 2015193
Jan 2015202
Nov 2014161
Oct 2014198
Sept 2014225
Aug 2014194
Jul 2014198
Jun 2014206
May 2014198
Apr 2014191
Mar 2014200
Feb 2014200
Jan 2014201
Dec 2013222
Nov 2013202
Oct 2013202
Sept 2013232
Aug 2013242
Jul 2013242
Jun 2013242
May 2013242
Apr 2013247
Mar 2013234
Jan 2013222
Dec 2012222
Nov 2012202
Oct 2012227
Sept 2012260
Aug 2012262
Jul 2012249
May 2012222
Apr 2012226
Dec 2011222
Nov 2011222
Oct 2011242
Sept 2011222
Jul 2011223
Jun 2011223
May 2011223
Apr 2011192
Mar 2011181
Jan 2011181
Dec 2010181
Nov 2010181
Oct 2010181
Sept 2010189
Aug 2010202
Jul 2010202
Jun 2010202
May 2010202
Apr 2010189
Mar 2010202
Feb 2010202
Jan 2010202
Dec 2009202
Nov 2009175
Oct 2009154
Sept 2009222
Aug 2009262
Jul 2009242
Jun 2009242
May 2009242
Apr 2009243
Mar 2009243
Feb 2009242
Jan 2009237

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-554-51-retail-kg.