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Millet in Birnin Gaoure

Dosso, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 23% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 9% below the national median of 53 markets (usually 9% below). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

157–247

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

157–263

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 23% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 8% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 157 and 247 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 157 and 263 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Birnin Gaoure: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 23% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 8% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 157 and 247 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 157 and 263 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (53 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 207–258 228 183–264 288 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 172–247 203 156–250 245 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 157–247 192 139–261 225 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 159–254 196 139–274 235 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 157–263 200 137–317 241 –
Price history (198 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026242
Aug 2026247
Jul 2026247
Jun 2026247
May 2026228
Apr 2026228
Mar 2026228
Feb 2026228
Jan 2026211
Dec 2025190
Nov 2025201
Oct 2025210
Sept 2025223
Aug 2025262
Jul 2025266
Jun 2025264
May 2025265
Apr 2025259
Mar 2025259
Feb 2025283
Jan 2025279
Dec 2024258
Nov 2024242
Oct 2024280
Sept 2024319
Aug 2024415
Jul 2024385
Jun 2024348
May 2024307
Apr 2024296
Mar 2024285
Feb 2024265
Jan 2024268
Dec 2023250
Nov 2023243
Oct 2023256
Sept 2023310
Aug 2023310
Jul 2023259
Jun 2023255
May 2023235
Apr 2023222
Mar 2023222
Feb 2023222
Jan 2023222
Dec 2022218
Nov 2022218
Oct 2022227
Sept 2022264
Aug 2022278
Jul 2022278
Jun 2022278
May 2022278
Apr 2022267
Mar 2022259
Feb 2022245
Jan 2022222
Dec 2021222
Nov 2021222
Oct 2021223
Sept 2021250
Aug 2021259
Jul 2021259
Jun 2021259
May 2021247
Apr 2021222
Mar 2021222
Feb 2021222
Jan 2021200
Dec 2020185
Nov 2020185
Oct 2020185
Sept 2020273
Aug 2020259
Jul 2020222
Jun 2020209
May 2020200
Apr 2020185
Mar 2020185
Feb 2020167
Jan 2020159
Dec 2019148
Nov 2019148
Oct 2019167
Sept 2019185
Jul 2019190
Jun 2019204
May 2019204
Apr 2019185
Mar 2019185
Feb 2019185
Jan 2019183
Dec 2018172
Nov 2018167
Oct 2018185
Sept 2018222
Aug 2018241
Jul 2018241
May 2018232
Apr 2018222
Mar 2018247
Feb 2018222
Jan 2018222
Dec 2017222
Oct 2017185
Aug 2017315
Jul 2017315
Jun 2017297
May 2017241
Apr 2017224
Mar 2017207
Feb 2017190
Jan 2017138
Nov 2016155
Oct 2016206
Sept 2016224
Aug 2016220
Jul 2016172
Jun 2016211
May 2016208
Apr 2016201
Mar 2016200
Feb 2016200
Jan 2016200
Dec 2015180
Oct 2015206
Sept 2015199
Aug 2015221
Jul 2015228
Jun 2015206
May 2015205
Apr 2015220
Mar 2015202
Feb 2015202
Jan 2015202
Nov 2014179
Oct 2014175
Sept 2014215
Aug 2014242
Jul 2014257
Jun 2014259
May 2014255
Apr 2014253
Mar 2014247
Feb 2014241
Jan 2014244
Dec 2013242
Nov 2013242
Oct 2013242
Sept 2013302
Aug 2013302
Jul 2013302
Jun 2013332
May 2013302
Apr 2013297
Mar 2013253
Jan 2013262
Dec 2012262
Nov 2012242
Oct 2012242
Sept 2012316
Aug 2012323
Jul 2012323
May 2012302
Apr 2012252
Dec 2011202
Nov 2011202
Oct 2011202
Sept 2011181
Jul 2011196
Jun 2011222
May 2011202
Apr 2011202
Mar 2011181
Jan 2011161
Dec 2010162
Nov 2010162
Oct 2010161
Sept 2010175
Aug 2010262
Jul 2010262
Jun 2010239
May 2010242
Apr 2010234
Mar 2010222
Feb 2010222
Jan 2010222
Dec 2009182
Nov 2009168
Oct 2009154
Sept 2009232
Aug 2009243
Jul 2009222
Jun 2009222
May 2009223
Mar 2009223
Feb 2009222
Jan 2009208

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-554-73-retail-kg.