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Maize in Bonkaney

Niamey, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 37% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 5% below the national median of 51 markets (usually about the same). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

141–202

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

133–212

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 37% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 8% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 141 and 202 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 133 and 212 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Bonkaney: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 37% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 8% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 141 and 202 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 133 and 212 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 172–202 185 160–212 302 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 152–203 171 136–208 279 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 141–202 162 121–213 258 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 138–208 163 112–231 263 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 133–212 163 108–279 263 –
Price history (204 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026192
Aug 2026189
Jul 2026192
Jun 2026187
May 2026175
Apr 2026184
Mar 2026182
Feb 2026178
Jan 2026192
Dec 2025197
Nov 2025196
Oct 2025190
Sept 2025229
Aug 2025250
Jul 2025261
Jun 2025269
May 2025291
Apr 2025295
Mar 2025295
Feb 2025308
Jan 2025300
Dec 2024285
Nov 2024277
Oct 2024294
Sept 2024378
Aug 2024431
Jul 2024432
Jun 2024405
May 2024369
Apr 2024340
Mar 2024317
Feb 2024291
Jan 2024275
Dec 2023275
Nov 2023279
Oct 2023310
Sept 2023368
Aug 2023355
Jul 2023302
Jun 2023263
May 2023233
Apr 2023232
Mar 2023231
Feb 2023228
Jan 2023231
Dec 2022252
Nov 2022227
Oct 2022272
Sept 2022284
Aug 2022291
Jul 2022291
Jun 2022288
May 2022288
Apr 2022318
Mar 2022294
Feb 2022291
Jan 2022252
Dec 2021231
Nov 2021233
Oct 2021288
Sept 2021288
Aug 2021307
Jul 2021277
Jun 2021250
May 2021250
Apr 2021231
Mar 2021233
Feb 2021212
Jan 2021202
Dec 2020210
Nov 2020191
Oct 2020201
Sept 2020214
Aug 2020226
Jul 2020212
Jun 2020192
May 2020193
Apr 2020193
Mar 2020193
Feb 2020195
Jan 2020195
Dec 2019194
Nov 2019194
Oct 2019196
Sept 2019196
Aug 2019195
Jul 2019204
Jun 2019185
May 2019195
Apr 2019196
Mar 2019196
Feb 2019195
Jan 2019196
Dec 2018196
Nov 2018198
Oct 2018198
Sept 2018198
Aug 2018208
Jul 2018217
Jun 2018216
May 2018214
Apr 2018204
Mar 2018196
Feb 2018197
Jan 2018197
Dec 2017198
Nov 2017194
Oct 2017216
Sept 2017234
Aug 2017220
Jul 2017216
Jun 2017216
May 2017217
Apr 2017215
Mar 2017194
Feb 2017194
Jan 2017194
Nov 2016196
Oct 2016216
Sept 2016212
Aug 2016213
Jul 2016216
Jun 2016217
May 2016217
Apr 2016216
Mar 2016194
Feb 2016194
Jan 2016192
Dec 2015192
Oct 2015213
Sept 2015212
Aug 2015211
Jul 2015195
Jun 2015193
May 2015194
Apr 2015191
Mar 2015176
Feb 2015176
Jan 2015175
Nov 2014198
Oct 2014198
Sept 2014198
Aug 2014196
Jul 2014196
Jun 2014198
May 2014198
Apr 2014192
Mar 2014194
Feb 2014196
Jan 2014198
Dec 2013198
Nov 2013203
Oct 2013207
Sept 2013222
Aug 2013220
Jul 2013227
Jun 2013214
May 2013217
Apr 2013233
Mar 2013216
Jan 2013198
Dec 2012209
Nov 2012208
Oct 2012206
Sept 2012262
Aug 2012252
Jul 2012248
May 2012213
Apr 2012220
Dec 2011221
Nov 2011220
Oct 2011218
Sept 2011219
Jul 2011200
Jun 2011198
May 2011199
Apr 2011190
Mar 2011179
Feb 2011176
Jan 2011176
Dec 2010182
Nov 2010181
Oct 2010192
Sept 2010204
Aug 2010200
Jul 2010200
Jun 2010206
May 2010200
Apr 2010181
Mar 2010188
Feb 2010202
Jan 2010191
Dec 2009198
Nov 2009198
Oct 2009201
Sept 2009247
Aug 2009240
Jul 2009245
Jun 2009218
May 2009224
Apr 2009219
Mar 2009218
Feb 2009224
Jan 2009226

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-556-51-retail-kg.