Staple Signals Français

Home › Niger

Sorghum in Bonkaney

Niamey, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 27% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was about the same as the national median of 51 markets (usually 9% above). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

181–257

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

177–264

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 27% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 3% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 181 and 257 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 177 and 264 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Bonkaney: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 27% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 3% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 181 and 257 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 177 and 264 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 210–257 231 200–273 340 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 195–261 224 186–294 321 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 181–257 210 155–284 293 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 180–265 213 165–342 301 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 177–264 213 155–325 294 –
Price history (203 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026235
Aug 2026237
Jul 2026232
Jun 2026236
May 2026231
Apr 2026229
Mar 2026228
Feb 2026201
Jan 2026235
Dec 2025232
Nov 2025231
Oct 2025231
Sept 2025265
Aug 2025275
Jul 2025291
Jun 2025291
May 2025293
Apr 2025319
Mar 2025323
Feb 2025324
Jan 2025300
Dec 2024314
Nov 2024310
Oct 2024421
Sept 2024484
Aug 2024447
Jul 2024429
Jun 2024392
May 2024363
Apr 2024344
Mar 2024326
Feb 2024320
Jan 2024309
Dec 2023316
Nov 2023341
Oct 2023363
Sept 2023382
Aug 2023360
Jul 2023331
Jun 2023297
May 2023297
Apr 2023298
Mar 2023298
Feb 2023280
Jan 2023278
Dec 2022294
Nov 2022219
Oct 2022294
Sept 2022318
Aug 2022326
Jul 2022311
Jun 2022312
May 2022312
Apr 2022307
Mar 2022292
Feb 2022288
Jan 2022292
Dec 2021294
Nov 2021278
Oct 2021275
Sept 2021294
Aug 2021283
Jul 2021288
Jun 2021257
May 2021257
Apr 2021257
Mar 2021258
Feb 2021252
Jan 2021233
Dec 2020251
Nov 2020238
Oct 2020260
Sept 2020280
Aug 2020280
Jul 2020243
Jun 2020239
May 2020243
Apr 2020243
Mar 2020243
Feb 2020239
Jan 2020227
Dec 2019228
Nov 2019223
Oct 2019240
Sept 2019238
Aug 2019235
Jul 2019228
Jun 2019169
May 2019238
Apr 2019240
Mar 2019239
Feb 2019237
Jan 2019242
Dec 2018242
Nov 2018242
Oct 2018242
Sept 2018260
Aug 2018260
Jul 2018260
Jun 2018258
May 2018282
Apr 2018262
Mar 2018238
Feb 2018258
Jan 2018248
Dec 2017258
Nov 2017275
Oct 2017302
Sept 2017302
Aug 2017275
Jul 2017257
Jun 2017257
May 2017235
Apr 2017234
Mar 2017233
Feb 2017231
Jan 2017236
Nov 2016242
Oct 2016242
Sept 2016238
Aug 2016239
Jul 2016240
Jun 2016241
May 2016222
Apr 2016220
Mar 2016214
Feb 2016214
Jan 2016220
Dec 2015240
Oct 2015246
Sept 2015233
Aug 2015223
Jul 2015221
Jun 2015220
May 2015230
Apr 2015222
Mar 2015220
Feb 2015219
Jan 2015231
Nov 2014247
Oct 2014244
Sept 2014240
Aug 2014237
Jul 2014236
Jun 2014234
May 2014240
Apr 2014243
Mar 2014240
Feb 2014240
Jan 2014242
Dec 2013242
Nov 2013235
Oct 2013238
Sept 2013252
Aug 2013246
Jul 2013257
Jun 2013245
May 2013246
Apr 2013247
Mar 2013245
Jan 2013243
Dec 2012246
Nov 2012258
Oct 2012271
Sept 2012288
Aug 2012272
Jul 2012271
May 2012225
Apr 2012231
Dec 2011227
Nov 2011224
Oct 2011210
Sept 2011202
Jul 2011204
Jun 2011202
May 2011203
Apr 2011206
Mar 2011207
Feb 2011198
Jan 2011198
Dec 2010203
Nov 2010204
Oct 2010200
Sept 2010204
Aug 2010203
Jul 2010202
Jun 2010199
May 2010198
Apr 2010190
Mar 2010205
Feb 2010200
Jan 2010199
Dec 2009202
Nov 2009212
Oct 2009187
Sept 2009237
Aug 2009235
Jul 2009200
Jun 2009202
May 2009198
Apr 2009193
Mar 2009194
Jan 2009189

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-556-65-retail-kg.