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Millet in Bonkaney

Niamey, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 21% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 2% above the national median of 53 markets (usually 6% above). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

196–286

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

189–299

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 21% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 11% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 196 and 286 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 189 and 299 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Bonkaney: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 21% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 11% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 196 and 286 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 189 and 299 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (53 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 238–291 266 228–306 339 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 218–283 242 184–308 306 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 196–286 233 175–308 281 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 197–296 236 167–322 294 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 189–299 236 155–303 294 –
Price history (192 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026273
Aug 2026278
Jul 2026277
Jun 2026280
May 2026250
Apr 2026239
Mar 2026235
Feb 2026233
Jan 2026233
Dec 2025235
Nov 2025239
Oct 2025248
Sept 2025277
Aug 2025290
Jul 2025314
Jun 2025308
May 2025310
Apr 2025335
Mar 2025330
Feb 2025325
Jan 2025322
Dec 2024325
Oct 2024329
Sept 2024405
Aug 2024480
Jul 2024463
Jun 2024411
May 2024373
Apr 2024340
Mar 2024318
Feb 2024306
Jan 2024302
Oct 2023316
Sept 2023364
Aug 2023353
Jul 2023341
Jun 2023302
May 2023288
Apr 2023307
Mar 2023287
Feb 2023294
Jan 2023295
Nov 2022227
Oct 2022309
Sept 2022340
Aug 2022382
Jul 2022353
Jun 2022330
May 2022330
Apr 2022318
Mar 2022314
Feb 2022310
Jan 2022290
Dec 2021283
Nov 2021300
Oct 2021286
Sept 2021302
Aug 2021301
Jul 2021294
Jun 2021294
May 2021294
Apr 2021275
Mar 2021262
Feb 2021252
Jan 2021242
Oct 2020257
Sept 2020306
Aug 2020316
Jul 2020264
Jun 2020240
May 2020234
Apr 2020234
Mar 2020234
Feb 2020235
Jan 2020224
Dec 2019234
Oct 2019237
Sept 2019238
Aug 2019238
Jul 2019233
Jun 2019183
May 2019248
Apr 2019238
Mar 2019237
Feb 2019234
Jan 2019232
Dec 2018232
Nov 2018235
Oct 2018235
Sept 2018277
Aug 2018287
Jul 2018296
Jun 2018296
May 2018278
Apr 2018268
Mar 2018253
Feb 2018252
Jan 2018252
Dec 2017273
Nov 2017260
Oct 2017277
Sept 2017296
Aug 2017298
Jul 2017294
Jun 2017294
May 2017298
Apr 2017276
Mar 2017235
Feb 2017233
Jan 2017234
Nov 2016218
Oct 2016238
Sept 2016235
Aug 2016256
Jul 2016238
Jun 2016238
May 2016238
Apr 2016217
Mar 2016216
Feb 2016216
Jan 2016198
Oct 2015215
Sept 2015236
Aug 2015240
Jul 2015243
Jun 2015235
May 2015236
Apr 2015237
Mar 2015238
Feb 2015237
Jan 2015233
Nov 2014273
Oct 2014247
Sept 2014251
Aug 2014271
Jul 2014268
Jun 2014266
May 2014274
Apr 2014280
Mar 2014277
Feb 2014278
Jan 2014280
Dec 2013280
Nov 2013271
Oct 2013262
Sept 2013271
Aug 2013279
Jul 2013296
Jun 2013280
May 2013280
Apr 2013280
Mar 2013265
Jan 2013260
Nov 2012258
Oct 2012256
Sept 2012309
Aug 2012322
Jul 2012317
May 2012295
Apr 2012270
Nov 2011228
Oct 2011208
Sept 2011195
Jul 2011209
Jun 2011217
May 2011218
Apr 2011201
Mar 2011202
Feb 2011198
Jan 2011198
Nov 2010178
Oct 2010198
Sept 2010239
Aug 2010258
Jul 2010253
Jun 2010242
May 2010246
Apr 2010220
Mar 2010222
Feb 2010220
Jan 2010220
Nov 2009218
Oct 2009207
Sept 2009240
Aug 2009255
Jul 2009238
Jun 2009217
May 2009217
Apr 2009211
Mar 2009214
Feb 2009218
Jan 2009222

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-556-73-retail-kg.