Staple Signals Français

Home › Niger

Maize in Bouza

Tahoua, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 30% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 13% above the national median of 51 markets (usually 6% above). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

158–248

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

149–256

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 30% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 9% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 158 and 248 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 149 and 256 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Bouza: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 30% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 9% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 158 and 248 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 149 and 256 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 190–240 212 169–259 332 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 165–244 194 154–247 298 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 158–248 186 147–269 277 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 152–249 182 135–304 284 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 149–256 186 132–352 288 –
Price history (181 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026214
Aug 2026226
Jul 2026210
Jun 2026215
May 2026207
Apr 2026183
Mar 2026180
Feb 2026179
Jan 2026188
Dec 2025219
Oct 2025248
Sept 2025261
Aug 2025298
Jul 2025345
Jun 2025322
May 2025311
Apr 2025318
Mar 2025322
Feb 2025307
Jan 2025313
Dec 2024329
Oct 2024361
Sept 2024414
Aug 2024447
Jul 2024423
Jun 2024384
May 2024346
Apr 2024347
Mar 2024330
Feb 2024325
Jan 2024318
Dec 2023295
Nov 2023308
Oct 2023336
Sept 2023423
Aug 2023365
Jul 2023289
Jun 2023278
May 2023288
Apr 2023286
Mar 2023283
Feb 2023312
Jan 2023293
Dec 2022266
Nov 2022229
Oct 2022256
Sept 2022280
Aug 2022257
Jul 2022297
Jun 2022306
Apr 2022302
Mar 2022315
Feb 2022319
Jan 2022284
Dec 2021260
Oct 2021259
Sept 2021298
Aug 2021303
Jul 2021312
Jun 2021293
May 2021293
Apr 2021275
Mar 2021275
Feb 2021266
Jan 2021248
Dec 2020204
Oct 2020265
Sept 2020273
Aug 2020282
Jul 2020262
Jun 2020240
May 2020211
Apr 2020207
Mar 2020207
Feb 2020178
Jan 2020207
Dec 2019208
Nov 2019217
Oct 2019182
Sept 2019182
Aug 2019177
Jul 2019181
Jun 2019179
May 2019205
Apr 2019205
Mar 2019205
Feb 2019198
Jan 2019198
Nov 2018196
Oct 2018214
Sept 2018214
Aug 2018232
Jul 2018236
Jan 2018218
Sept 2017299
Aug 2017294
Jun 2017286
Apr 2017271
Mar 2017256
Feb 2017241
Nov 2016204
Oct 2016222
Sept 2016247
Aug 2016259
Jul 2016241
May 2016225
Apr 2016221
Mar 2016221
Feb 2016221
Jan 2016226
Dec 2015205
Oct 2015226
Sept 2015226
Aug 2015224
Jul 2015225
Jun 2015226
May 2015225
Apr 2015225
Mar 2015220
Feb 2015201
Jan 2015200
Nov 2014233
Oct 2014226
Sept 2014233
Aug 2014228
Jul 2014242
Jun 2014235
May 2014233
Apr 2014232
Mar 2014247
Feb 2014247
Jan 2014230
Dec 2013230
Nov 2013285
Oct 2013232
Sept 2013291
Aug 2013299
Jul 2013342
Jun 2013282
May 2013275
Apr 2013287
Mar 2013257
Jan 2013247
Dec 2012258
Nov 2012209
Oct 2012212
Sept 2012238
Aug 2012267
Jul 2012262
May 2012207
Jul 2011239
Jun 2011245
May 2011246
Apr 2011219
Mar 2011215
Feb 2011210
Jan 2011208
Dec 2010198
Nov 2010200
Oct 2010203
Sept 2010216
Aug 2010218
Jul 2010218
Jun 2010220
May 2010223
Apr 2010221
Mar 2010216
Feb 2010220
Jan 2010225
Dec 2009229
Nov 2009252
Oct 2009251
Sept 2009258
Aug 2009257
Jul 2009241
Jun 2009245
May 2009248
Apr 2009244
Mar 2009242
Feb 2009242
Jan 2009237

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-557-51-retail-kg.