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Sorghum in Bouza

Tahoua, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 25% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 5% below the national median of 51 markets (usually 4% below). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

140–229

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

139–245

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

3%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 25% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 9% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 140 and 229 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 139 and 245 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Bouza: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 25% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 9% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 140 and 229 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 139 and 245 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 176–241 208 158–265 294 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 147–225 177 124–257 231 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 140–229 173 119–289 232 3%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 143–240 176 129–374 248 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 139–245 181 121–371 245 –
Price history (188 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026210
Aug 2026226
Jul 2026216
Jun 2026222
May 2026208
Apr 2026181
Mar 2026181
Feb 2026182
Jan 2026195
Dec 2025205
Nov 2025216
Oct 2025211
Sept 2025221
Aug 2025269
Jul 2025328
Jun 2025307
May 2025277
Apr 2025292
Mar 2025295
Feb 2025300
Jan 2025277
Dec 2024230
Nov 2024220
Oct 2024201
Sept 2024282
Aug 2024435
Jul 2024388
Jun 2024343
May 2024304
Apr 2024301
Mar 2024292
Feb 2024247
Jan 2024273
Dec 2023308
Sept 2023370
Aug 2023325
Jul 2023295
Jun 2023284
May 2023286
Apr 2023267
Mar 2023286
Feb 2023290
Jan 2023263
Dec 2022239
Nov 2022185
Oct 2022258
Sept 2022289
Aug 2022291
Jul 2022315
Jun 2022284
Apr 2022280
Mar 2022291
Feb 2022290
Jan 2022235
Dec 2021206
Nov 2021273
Oct 2021250
Sept 2021300
Aug 2021305
Jul 2021316
Jun 2021283
May 2021283
Apr 2021278
Mar 2021278
Feb 2021224
Jan 2021211
Nov 2020210
Oct 2020263
Sept 2020275
Aug 2020279
Jul 2020240
Jun 2020231
May 2020213
Apr 2020198
Mar 2020198
Feb 2020227
Jan 2020183
Dec 2019209
Nov 2019218
Oct 2019175
Sept 2019178
Aug 2019177
Jul 2019144
Jun 2019186
May 2019200
Apr 2019200
Mar 2019200
Feb 2019179
Jan 2019182
Dec 2018203
Nov 2018200
Oct 2018214
Sept 2018214
Aug 2018232
Jul 2018236
Jan 2018216
Dec 2017225
Nov 2017233
Oct 2017179
Sept 2017318
Aug 2017318
Jul 2017291
Jun 2017295
Apr 2017276
Mar 2017243
Feb 2017243
Nov 2016147
Oct 2016147
Sept 2016260
Aug 2016238
Jul 2016220
May 2016195
Apr 2016163
Mar 2016163
Feb 2016163
Jan 2016167
Dec 2015162
Oct 2015176
Sept 2015196
Aug 2015181
Jul 2015181
Jun 2015163
May 2015152
Apr 2015146
Mar 2015148
Feb 2015145
Jan 2015127
Nov 2014136
Oct 2014181
Sept 2014187
Aug 2014208
Jul 2014227
Jun 2014222
May 2014212
Apr 2014199
Mar 2014207
Feb 2014198
Jan 2014180
Dec 2013180
Nov 2013185
Oct 2013221
Sept 2013290
Aug 2013323
Jul 2013331
Jun 2013272
May 2013253
Apr 2013252
Mar 2013242
Jan 2013222
Dec 2012228
Nov 2012244
Oct 2012199
Sept 2012223
Aug 2012238
Jul 2012252
May 2012232
Dec 2011213
Jul 2011185
Jun 2011155
May 2011155
Apr 2011149
Mar 2011142
Feb 2011162
Jan 2011148
Dec 2010128
Nov 2010132
Oct 2010137
Sept 2010167
Aug 2010241
Jul 2010226
Jun 2010211
May 2010222
Apr 2010209
Mar 2010192
Feb 2010199
Jan 2010200
Dec 2009173
Nov 2009193
Oct 2009157
Sept 2009203
Aug 2009194
Jul 2009179
Jun 2009154
May 2009152
Apr 2009155
Mar 2009146
Feb 2009149
Jan 2009149

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-557-65-retail-kg.