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Millet in Bouza

Tahoua, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 31% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 19% below the national median of 53 markets (usually 6% below). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

145–232

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

145–248

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 31% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 4% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 145 and 232 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 145 and 248 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Bouza: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 31% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 4% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 145 and 232 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 145 and 248 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (53 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 179–235 201 162–247 285 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 149–225 177 140–234 239 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 145–232 176 136–233 239 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 149–241 180 134–290 253 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 145–248 183 124–301 260 –
Price history (190 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026198
Aug 2026219
Jul 2026259
Jun 2026240
May 2026227
Apr 2026200
Mar 2026183
Feb 2026188
Jan 2026202
Dec 2025201
Nov 2025203
Oct 2025207
Sept 2025228
Aug 2025266
Jul 2025338
Jun 2025301
May 2025258
Apr 2025263
Mar 2025286
Feb 2025288
Jan 2025291
Dec 2024269
Nov 2024247
Oct 2024284
Sept 2024278
Aug 2024383
Jul 2024380
Jun 2024362
May 2024336
Apr 2024316
Mar 2024298
Feb 2024294
Jan 2024257
Dec 2023284
Nov 2023290
Oct 2023269
Sept 2023307
Aug 2023347
Jul 2023289
Jun 2023278
May 2023267
Apr 2023263
Mar 2023257
Feb 2023285
Jan 2023251
Dec 2022229
Nov 2022209
Oct 2022223
Sept 2022268
Aug 2022321
Jul 2022303
Jun 2022281
Apr 2022319
Mar 2022288
Feb 2022286
Jan 2022256
Dec 2021256
Nov 2021248
Oct 2021241
Sept 2021293
Aug 2021293
Jul 2021289
Jun 2021281
May 2021281
Apr 2021265
Mar 2021266
Feb 2021308
Jan 2021239
Dec 2020204
Nov 2020174
Oct 2020195
Sept 2020268
Aug 2020291
Jul 2020247
Jun 2020222
May 2020205
Apr 2020209
Mar 2020209
Feb 2020205
Jan 2020205
Dec 2019194
Nov 2019193
Oct 2019174
Sept 2019181
Aug 2019194
Jul 2019167
Jun 2019194
May 2019199
Apr 2019194
Mar 2019194
Feb 2019176
Jan 2019181
Dec 2018192
Nov 2018185
Oct 2018174
Sept 2018174
Aug 2018253
Jul 2018262
Jan 2018211
Dec 2017211
Nov 2017210
Oct 2017221
Sept 2017293
Aug 2017330
Jul 2017293
Jun 2017288
Apr 2017266
Mar 2017232
Feb 2017236
Nov 2016163
Oct 2016144
Sept 2016253
Aug 2016250
Jul 2016214
May 2016187
Apr 2016182
Mar 2016182
Feb 2016182
Jan 2016180
Dec 2015162
Oct 2015169
Sept 2015188
Aug 2015184
Jul 2015181
Jun 2015178
May 2015181
Apr 2015183
Mar 2015144
Feb 2015171
Jan 2015155
Nov 2014144
Oct 2014166
Sept 2014180
Aug 2014218
Jul 2014239
Jun 2014235
May 2014227
Apr 2014236
Mar 2014234
Feb 2014221
Jan 2014222
Dec 2013228
Nov 2013216
Oct 2013218
Sept 2013299
Aug 2013343
Jul 2013331
Jun 2013295
May 2013277
Apr 2013281
Mar 2013271
Jan 2013260
Dec 2012278
Nov 2012237
Oct 2012234
Sept 2012234
Aug 2012280
Jul 2012265
May 2012236
Dec 2011232
Jul 2011175
Jun 2011179
May 2011160
Apr 2011174
Feb 2011180
Jan 2011175
Dec 2010152
Nov 2010133
Oct 2010125
Sept 2010169
Aug 2010228
Jul 2010228
Jun 2010226
May 2010237
Apr 2010205
Mar 2010206
Feb 2010209
Jan 2010205
Dec 2009196
Nov 2009196
Oct 2009182
Sept 2009221
Aug 2009228
Jul 2009212
Jun 2009190
May 2009194
Apr 2009187
Mar 2009184
Feb 2009191
Jan 2009194

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-557-73-retail-kg.