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Rice (imported) in Dan Issa

Maradi, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 11% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was about the same as the national median of 52 markets (usually 8% below). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

442–534

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

425–548

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 11% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 59 markets in Niger, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 442 and 534 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 425 and 548 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (imported), Dan Issa: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 11% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 59 markets in Niger, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 442 and 534 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 425 and 548 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (52 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 473–513 498 456–545 583 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 452–521 497 434–575 576 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 442–534 492 422–632 602 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 438–539 492 404–634 578 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 425–548 490 375–675 573 –
Price history (197 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026500
Aug 2026500
Jul 2026500
Jun 2026500
May 2026500
Apr 2026500
Mar 2026500
Feb 2026500
Jan 2026467
Dec 2025458
Nov 2025458
Oct 2025478
Sept 2025500
Aug 2025500
Jul 2025516
Jun 2025541
May 2025525
Apr 2025550
Mar 2025553
Feb 2025545
Jan 2025600
Dec 2024608
Nov 2024603
Oct 2024621
Sept 2024640
Aug 2024643
Jul 2024676
Jun 2024637
May 2024621
Apr 2024621
Mar 2024558
Feb 2024620
Jan 2024599
Dec 2023606
Nov 2023701
Oct 2023587
Sept 2023541
Aug 2023551
Jun 2023489
May 2023522
Apr 2023567
Mar 2023607
Feb 2023621
Jan 2023490
Dec 2022510
Nov 2022500
Oct 2022473
Jul 2022538
Apr 2022451
Mar 2022454
Feb 2022446
Jan 2022452
Dec 2021461
Nov 2021500
Oct 2021408
Sept 2021431
Aug 2021417
Jul 2021454
Jun 2021423
May 2021423
Apr 2021460
Mar 2021448
Feb 2021446
Jan 2021466
Dec 2020450
Nov 2020500
Oct 2020461
Sept 2020477
Aug 2020424
Jul 2020428
Jun 2020425
May 2020463
Apr 2020400
Mar 2020425
Feb 2020427
Jan 2020429
Dec 2019428
Nov 2019422
Oct 2019438
Sept 2019438
Aug 2019430
Jul 2019424
Jun 2019427
May 2019417
Apr 2019417
Mar 2019411
Feb 2019411
Jan 2019410
Dec 2018415
Nov 2018417
Oct 2018413
Sept 2018415
Aug 2018417
Jul 2018437
Jun 2018430
May 2018414
Apr 2018410
Mar 2018410
Feb 2018402
Jan 2018403
Dec 2017403
Nov 2017407
Oct 2017430
Sept 2017416
Aug 2017427
Jul 2017436
Jun 2017412
May 2017423
Apr 2017400
Mar 2017414
Feb 2017400
Jan 2017373
Nov 2016436
Oct 2016400
Sept 2016405
Aug 2016430
Jul 2016463
Jun 2016435
May 2016417
Apr 2016417
Mar 2016417
Feb 2016409
Jan 2016396
Dec 2015405
Oct 2015405
Sept 2015423
Aug 2015413
Jul 2015395
Jun 2015411
May 2015451
Apr 2015424
Mar 2015406
Feb 2015434
Jan 2015437
Nov 2014456
Oct 2014467
Sept 2014454
Aug 2014446
Jul 2014444
Jun 2014412
May 2014500
Apr 2014500
Mar 2014500
Feb 2014500
Jan 2014500
Dec 2013500
Oct 2013500
Sept 2013500
Aug 2013500
Jul 2013500
Jun 2013500
May 2013502
Apr 2013508
Mar 2013500
Jan 2013505
Dec 2012516
Nov 2012512
Oct 2012508
Sept 2012525
Aug 2012529
Jul 2012516
May 2012506
Apr 2012500
Dec 2011490
Nov 2011480
Oct 2011479
Sept 2011471
Jul 2011471
Jun 2011478
May 2011478
Apr 2011489
Mar 2011500
Jan 2011486
Dec 2010486
Nov 2010472
Oct 2010478
Sept 2010514
Aug 2010533
Jul 2010557
Jun 2010561
May 2010535
Apr 2010518
Mar 2010516
Feb 2010504
Jan 2010487
Dec 2009476
Nov 2009492
Oct 2009490
Sept 2009482
Aug 2009485
Jul 2009498
Jun 2009459
May 2009455
Apr 2009468
Mar 2009473
Feb 2009503
Jan 2009485

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-560-64-retail-kg.