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Maize in Diffa Commune

Diffa, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 14% below the usual level for that time of year.

Far above the national price. In August 2026 the price here was 42% above the national median of 51 markets (usually 5% above). That is far above its usual distance: prices that separate from the rest of the country can point to a cut-off area, but also to a data error. How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

180–276

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

176–296

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 14% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 9% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 180 and 276 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 176 and 296 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Diffa Commune: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 14% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 9% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 180 and 276 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 176 and 296 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 229–289 265 206–310 323 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 198–277 232 170–304 272 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 180–276 223 161–318 252 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 181–289 224 159–353 259 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 176–296 230 150–376 260 –
Price history (371 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026280
Aug 2026283
Jul 2026268
Jun 2026273
May 2026260
Apr 2026256
Mar 2026260
Feb 2026260
Jan 2026252
Dec 2025250
Nov 2025250
Oct 2025260
Sept 2025255
Aug 2025260
Jul 2025265
Jun 2025265
May 2025264
Apr 2025265
Mar 2025260
Feb 2025260
Jan 2025294
Dec 2024304
Nov 2024280
Oct 2024307
Sept 2024422
Aug 2024490
Jul 2024480
Jun 2024424
May 2024393
Mar 2024265
Feb 2024262
Jan 2024273
Dec 2023265
Nov 2023321
Oct 2023310
Sept 2023442
Aug 2023335
Jul 2023293
Jun 2023294
May 2023294
Apr 2023273
Mar 2023242
Feb 2023215
Jan 2023221
Dec 2022214
Nov 2022217
Oct 2022203
Sept 2022278
Aug 2022278
Jul 2022252
Jun 2022252
May 2022275
Apr 2022265
Mar 2022212
Feb 2022202
Jan 2022201
Dec 2021196
Nov 2021171
Oct 2021193
Sept 2021299
Aug 2021299
Jul 2021299
Jun 2021241
May 2021241
Apr 2021275
Mar 2021207
Feb 2021203
Jan 2021196
Dec 2020214
Nov 2020160
Oct 2020273
Sept 2020283
Aug 2020293
Jul 2020239
Jun 2020216
May 2020252
Apr 2020264
Mar 2020235
Feb 2020235
Jan 2020232
Dec 2019219
Nov 2019213
Oct 2019232
Sept 2019217
Aug 2019242
Jul 2019235
Jun 2019242
May 2019243
Apr 2019219
Mar 2019208
Feb 2019187
Jan 2019173
Dec 2018190
Nov 2018219
Oct 2018219
Sept 2018220
Aug 2018264
Jul 2018245
May 2018268
Apr 2018237
Mar 2018277
Feb 2018285
Jan 2018262
Dec 2017249
Nov 2017246
Oct 2017253
Sept 2017258
Aug 2017294
Jul 2017291
Jun 2017282
May 2017308
Apr 2017264
Mar 2017225
Feb 2017240
Jan 2017216
Nov 2016189
Oct 2016186
Sept 2016258
Aug 2016286
Jul 2016211
Jun 2016236
May 2016220
Apr 2016190
Mar 2016220
Feb 2016187
Jan 2016206
Dec 2015172
Oct 2015167
Sept 2015185
Aug 2015180
Jul 2015212
Jun 2015216
May 2015222
Apr 2015197
Mar 2015201
Feb 2015197
Jan 2015204
Nov 2014228
Oct 2014229
Sept 2014241
Aug 2014252
Jul 2014249
Jun 2014249
May 2014235
Apr 2014230
Mar 2014253
Feb 2014257
Jan 2014260
Dec 2013262
Nov 2013202
Oct 2013238
Sept 2013262
Aug 2013280
Jul 2013296
Jun 2013251
May 2013209
Apr 2013225
Mar 2013218
Feb 2013217
Jan 2013219
Dec 2012208
Nov 2012209
Oct 2012213
Sept 2012268
Aug 2012281
Jul 2012281
May 2012273
Apr 2012271
Mar 2012224
Feb 2012214
Jan 2012209
Dec 2011220
Nov 2011216
Oct 2011219
Sept 2011196
Jul 2011190
May 2011201
Apr 2011166
Mar 2011167
Jan 2011164
Dec 2010179
Nov 2010165
Sept 2010226
Aug 2010254
Jul 2010242
Jun 2010246
May 2010215
Apr 2010202
Mar 2010194
Feb 2010191
Jan 2010197
Dec 2009190
Nov 2009173
Oct 2009175
Sept 2009210
Aug 2009231
Jul 2009227
Jun 2009199
May 2009193
Apr 2009183
Mar 2009192
Feb 2009196
Jan 2009205
Dec 2008214
Nov 2008218
Oct 2008225
Sept 2008255
Aug 2008231
Jul 2008229
Apr 2008203
Feb 2008168
Jan 2008157
Dec 2007126
Nov 2007126
Oct 2007140
Sept 2007164
Aug 2007155
Jul 2007159
Jan 2007198
Dec 2006152
Nov 2006148
Oct 2006158
Sept 2006180
Aug 2006187
Jul 2006177
Jun 2006158
May 2006162
Apr 2006171
Mar 2006177
Feb 2006178
Jan 2006166
Dec 2005164
Nov 2005144
Oct 2005135
Sept 2005204
Aug 2005301
Jul 2005295
Jun 2005265
May 2005248
Apr 2005250
Mar 2005228
Feb 2005230
Jan 2005170
Dec 2004163
Nov 2004166
Oct 2004158
Sept 2004179
Aug 2004180
Jul 2004183
Jun 2004166
May 2004162
Apr 2004147
Mar 2004126
Feb 2004125
Jan 2004122
Dec 2003101
Nov 2003110
Oct 2003118
Sept 2003132
Aug 2003130
Jul 2003147
Jun 2003150
May 2003157
Apr 2003181
Mar 2003176
Feb 2003182
Jan 2003171
Dec 2002170
Nov 2002166
Oct 2002192
Sept 2002232
Aug 2002253
Jul 2002256
Jun 2002271
May 2002228
Apr 2002230
Mar 2002226
Feb 2002226
Jan 2002182
Dec 2001188
Nov 2001181
Oct 2001183
Sept 2001201
Aug 2001232
Jul 2001255
Jun 2001252
May 2001248
Apr 2001231
Mar 2001204
Feb 2001147
Jan 2001161
Dec 2000145
Nov 2000146
Oct 2000150
Sept 2000142
Aug 2000130
Jul 2000148
Jun 2000161
May 2000160
Apr 2000134
Mar 2000121
Feb 2000117
Jan 2000118
Dec 1999144
Nov 1999130
Oct 1999148
Sept 1999135
Aug 1999135
Jul 1999137
Jun 1999129
May 1999129
Apr 1999110
Mar 1999139
Feb 1999112
Jan 1999117
Dec 1998113
Nov 1998131
Oct 1998130
Sept 1998189
Aug 1998239
Jul 1998237
Jun 1998237
May 1998248
Apr 1998217
Mar 1998199
Feb 1998198
Jan 1998186
Dec 1997167
Nov 1997168
Oct 1997177
Sept 1997206
Aug 1997234
Jul 1997230
May 1997188
Apr 1997189
Mar 1997159
Feb 1997181
Jan 1997153
Dec 1996146
Nov 1996134
Oct 1996143
Sept 1996147
Aug 1996166
Jul 1996155
May 1996148
Mar 1996131
Feb 1996121
Jan 1996118
Dec 1995103
Nov 1995110
Oct 1995119
Sept 1995132
Aug 1995119
Jul 1995106
Jun 1995104
May 1995102
Apr 199596
Mar 199590
Feb 199596
Jan 199594
Dec 199482
Nov 199453
Oct 199440
Sept 199485
Aug 199498
Jul 199498
May 199488
Apr 199484
Mar 199481
Feb 199488
Jan 199462

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-562-51-retail-kg.