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Rice (imported) in Diffa Commune

Diffa, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 15% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 5% above the national median of 52 markets (usually 4% above). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

463–565

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

439–581

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 15% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 59 markets in Niger, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 463 and 565 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 439 and 581 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (imported), Diffa Commune: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 15% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 59 markets in Niger, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 463 and 565 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 439 and 581 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).02004006008001,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (52 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 499–549 524 462–584 623 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 477–553 523 441–611 629 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 463–565 521 416–670 606 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 456–578 521 405–677 618 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 439–581 518 367–708 620 –
Price history (195 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026520
Aug 2026525
Jul 2026520
Jun 2026551
May 2026520
Apr 2026516
Mar 2026520
Feb 2026538
Jan 2026528
Dec 2025540
Nov 2025520
Oct 2025552
Sept 2025570
Aug 2025576
Jul 2025580
Jun 2025660
May 2025676
Apr 2025700
Mar 2025720
Feb 2025770
Jan 2025748
Dec 2024686
Nov 2024609
Oct 2024673
Sept 2024710
Aug 2024700
Jul 2024761
Jun 2024800
May 2024752
Mar 2024700
Feb 2024637
Jan 2024551
Dec 2023640
Nov 2023615
Oct 2023602
Sept 2023617
Aug 2023583
Jun 2023484
May 2023504
Apr 2023504
Mar 2023512
Feb 2023501
Jan 2023524
Dec 2022514
Nov 2022500
Oct 2022513
Sept 2022522
Aug 2022522
Jul 2022500
Jun 2022502
May 2022578
Apr 2022518
Mar 2022518
Feb 2022492
Jan 2022482
Dec 2021492
Nov 2021492
Oct 2021551
Sept 2021512
Aug 2021512
Jul 2021512
Jun 2021516
May 2021516
Apr 2021517
Mar 2021512
Feb 2021512
Jan 2021512
Dec 2020500
Nov 2020474
Oct 2020459
Sept 2020508
Aug 2020500
Jul 2020483
Jun 2020455
May 2020498
Apr 2020520
Mar 2020491
Feb 2020516
Jan 2020509
Dec 2019492
Nov 2019505
Oct 2019509
Sept 2019508
Aug 2019505
Jun 2019475
May 2019440
Apr 2019419
Mar 2019416
Feb 2019504
Jan 2019463
Dec 2018463
Nov 2018476
Oct 2018496
Sept 2018458
Aug 2018471
May 2018493
Apr 2018494
Mar 2018491
Feb 2018484
Jan 2018484
Dec 2017479
Nov 2017474
Oct 2017501
Sept 2017435
Aug 2017508
Jun 2017482
May 2017504
Apr 2017520
Mar 2017481
Feb 2017496
Jan 2017479
Nov 2016477
Oct 2016484
Sept 2016474
Aug 2016489
Jul 2016506
Jun 2016481
May 2016455
Mar 2016481
Feb 2016496
Jan 2016487
Dec 2015514
Oct 2015487
Sept 2015478
Aug 2015494
Jul 2015504
Jun 2015507
May 2015510
Apr 2015514
Mar 2015468
Feb 2015491
Jan 2015504
Nov 2014487
Oct 2014480
Sept 2014484
Aug 2014471
Jul 2014477
Jun 2014506
May 2014519
Apr 2014490
Mar 2014519
Feb 2014506
Jan 2014504
Dec 2013520
Nov 2013580
Oct 2013555
Sept 2013494
Aug 2013496
Jul 2013533
Jun 2013572
May 2013527
Apr 2013547
Mar 2013508
Jan 2013528
Dec 2012586
Nov 2012527
Oct 2012500
Sept 2012540
Aug 2012517
Jul 2012517
May 2012517
Apr 2012517
Dec 2011515
Nov 2011495
Oct 2011492
Sept 2011500
Jul 2011500
Jun 2011500
May 2011500
Apr 2011500
Mar 2011500
Jan 2011500
Dec 2010500
Nov 2010463
Sept 2010500
Aug 2010500
Jul 2010500
Jun 2010500
May 2010500
Apr 2010500
Mar 2010506
Feb 2010500
Jan 2010500
Dec 2009500
Nov 2009500
Oct 2009550
Sept 2009550
Aug 2009550
Jul 2009512
Jun 2009500
May 2009575
Apr 2009500
Mar 2009500
Feb 2009500
Jan 2009600

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-562-64-retail-kg.