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Millet in Diffa Commune

Diffa, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 23% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 4% below the national median of 53 markets (usually about the same). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

160–271

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

167–291

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

5%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 23% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 160 and 271 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 167 and 291 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Diffa Commune: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 23% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 160 and 271 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 167 and 291 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (53 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 217–285 246 200–306 317 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 178–273 216 153–293 266 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 160–271 204 152–325 244 5%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 169–281 215 144–296 259 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 167–291 215 141–303 267 –
Price history (364 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026273
Aug 2026260
Jul 2026252
Jun 2026256
Apr 2026238
Mar 2026255
Feb 2026240
Jan 2026224
Dec 2025220
Nov 2025210
Oct 2025240
Sept 2025240
Aug 2025240
Jul 2025260
Jun 2025280
Apr 2025295
Mar 2025278
Feb 2025283
Jan 2025289
Dec 2024264
Nov 2024244
Oct 2024301
Sept 2024414
Aug 2024490
Jul 2024437
Jun 2024430
May 2024379
Mar 2024294
Feb 2024285
Jan 2024291
Dec 2023296
Nov 2023318
Oct 2023315
Sept 2023420
Aug 2023386
Jul 2023313
Jun 2023293
Apr 2023293
Mar 2023252
Feb 2023210
Jan 2023252
Dec 2022252
Nov 2022200
Oct 2022219
Sept 2022279
Aug 2022279
Jul 2022285
Jun 2022281
May 2022294
Apr 2022279
Mar 2022224
Feb 2022207
Jan 2022207
Dec 2021189
Nov 2021165
Oct 2021188
Sept 2021300
Aug 2021300
Jul 2021300
Jun 2021272
Apr 2021275
Mar 2021210
Feb 2021196
Jan 2021192
Dec 2020212
Nov 2020189
Oct 2020250
Sept 2020287
Aug 2020297
Jul 2020237
Jun 2020212
May 2020250
Apr 2020254
Mar 2020252
Feb 2020247
Jan 2020234
Dec 2019207
Nov 2019182
Oct 2019187
Sept 2019176
Aug 2019221
Jul 2019226
Jun 2019236
Apr 2019203
Mar 2019204
Feb 2019179
Jan 2019182
Dec 2018167
Nov 2018215
Oct 2018215
Sept 2018207
Aug 2018276
Jul 2018248
Apr 2018232
Mar 2018222
Feb 2018252
Jan 2018230
Dec 2017220
Nov 2017217
Oct 2017208
Sept 2017252
Aug 2017290
Jul 2017273
Jun 2017288
May 2017285
Apr 2017271
Mar 2017252
Feb 2017207
Jan 2017190
Nov 2016163
Oct 2016171
Sept 2016211
Aug 2016264
Jul 2016205
Jun 2016222
Apr 2016178
Mar 2016206
Feb 2016175
Jan 2016184
Dec 2015189
Oct 2015177
Sept 2015190
Aug 2015198
Jul 2015228
Jun 2015236
Apr 2015220
Mar 2015218
Feb 2015217
Jan 2015218
Nov 2014236
Oct 2014239
Sept 2014275
Aug 2014306
Jul 2014298
Jun 2014298
May 2014278
Apr 2014249
Mar 2014269
Feb 2014274
Jan 2014264
Dec 2013280
Nov 2013258
Oct 2013298
Sept 2013329
Aug 2013333
Jul 2013298
Jun 2013314
Apr 2013301
Mar 2013267
Feb 2013238
Jan 2013231
Dec 2012209
Nov 2012223
Oct 2012201
Sept 2012329
Aug 2012324
Jul 2012313
Apr 2012266
Mar 2012257
Feb 2012240
Jan 2012246
Dec 2011249
Nov 2011214
Oct 2011195
Sept 2011188
Jul 2011175
Jun 2011189
May 2011196
Apr 2011162
Mar 2011160
Jan 2011173
Dec 2010164
Nov 2010144
Oct 2010206
Sept 2010226
Aug 2010264
Jul 2010248
Jun 2010256
May 2010223
Apr 2010211
Mar 2010200
Feb 2010198
Jan 2010206
Dec 2009193
Nov 2009186
Oct 2009197
Sept 2009214
Aug 2009240
Jul 2009233
Jun 2009190
May 2009186
Apr 2009177
Mar 2009183
Feb 2009188
Jan 2009213
Dec 2008219
Nov 2008219
Sept 2008254
Aug 2008233
Jul 2008241
Jun 2008215
May 2008199
Apr 2008195
Mar 2008199
Feb 2008181
Jan 2008164
Dec 2007142
Nov 2007142
Oct 2007150
Sept 2007161
Aug 2007160
Jul 2007158
Jun 2007157
May 2007155
Apr 2007159
Mar 2007169
Feb 2007161
Jan 2007163
Dec 2006164
Nov 2006160
Oct 2006170
Sept 2006185
Aug 2006204
Jul 2006187
Jun 2006167
May 2006170
Apr 2006169
Mar 2006166
Feb 2006172
Jan 2006173
Dec 2005175
Nov 2005161
Oct 2005177
Sept 2005251
Aug 2005328
Jul 2005304
Jun 2005256
May 2005233
Apr 2005253
Mar 2005221
Feb 2005225
Jan 2005176
Dec 2004162
Nov 2004172
Oct 2004172
Sept 2004169
Aug 2004174
Jul 2004174
Jun 2004158
May 2004174
Apr 2004159
Mar 2004136
Feb 2004126
Jan 2004119
Dec 2003107
Nov 2003111
Oct 2003114
Sept 2003126
Aug 2003129
Jul 2003146
Jun 2003143
May 2003152
Apr 2003167
Mar 2003167
Feb 2003168
Jan 2003172
Dec 2002172
Nov 2002169
Oct 2002182
Sept 2002222
Aug 2002261
Jul 2002256
May 2002216
Apr 2002219
Mar 2002215
Feb 2002176
Jan 2002175
Dec 2001151
Nov 2001147
Oct 2001152
Sept 2001189
Aug 2001239
Jul 2001205
Jun 2001186
Apr 2001218
Mar 2001171
Feb 2001160
Jan 2001160
Dec 2000156
Nov 2000137
Oct 2000142
Sept 2000141
Aug 2000142
Jul 2000142
Jun 2000138
May 2000133
Apr 2000127
Mar 2000118
Feb 2000118
Jan 2000118
Dec 1999106
Nov 1999107
Oct 1999111
Sept 199997
Aug 199999
Jul 1999111
Jun 1999103
May 1999107
Apr 1999101
Mar 199995
Feb 1999103
Jan 199994
Dec 199885
Nov 199880
Oct 1998109
Sept 1998209
Aug 1998248
Jul 1998229
May 1998241
Apr 1998239
Mar 1998190
Feb 1998185
Jan 1998184
Dec 1997181
Nov 1997171
Oct 1997156
Sept 1997199
Aug 1997220
Jul 1997198
Jun 1997179
May 1997165
Apr 1997175
Mar 1997154
Feb 1997102
Jan 1997139
Dec 1996130
Nov 1996108
Oct 1996112
Sept 1996140
Aug 1996159
Jul 1996132
May 1996127
Apr 1996122
Mar 1996113
Feb 199697
Jan 199699
Dec 199596
Nov 199594
Oct 199598
Sept 1995107
Aug 1995101
Jul 199587
May 199583
Apr 199578
Mar 199577
Feb 199583
Jan 199588
Aug 199493
Jul 199487
May 199479
Apr 199478
Mar 199475
Feb 199485
Jan 199461

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-562-73-retail-kg.