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Maize in Dogondoutchi

Dosso, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 38% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 13% below the national median of 51 markets (usually 7% below). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

122–188

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

115–195

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 38% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 122 and 188 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 115 and 195 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Dogondoutchi: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 38% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 122 and 188 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 115 and 195 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 156–189 172 144–204 274 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 132–186 156 117–192 242 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 122–188 149 109–224 230 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 120–194 148 105–257 230 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 115–195 148 98.7–286 235 –
Price history (187 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026171
Aug 2026174
Jul 2026193
Jun 2026192
May 2026172
Apr 2026167
Mar 2026166
Feb 2026171
Jan 2026161
Dec 2025161
Nov 2025167
Oct 2025171
Sept 2025184
Aug 2025210
Jul 2025245
Jun 2025245
May 2025255
Apr 2025274
Mar 2025283
Feb 2025281
Jan 2025272
Dec 2024259
Nov 2024231
Oct 2024250
Sept 2024349
Aug 2024415
Jul 2024438
Jun 2024415
May 2024377
Apr 2024362
Mar 2024310
Feb 2024300
Jan 2024287
Dec 2023278
Nov 2023278
Oct 2023327
Sept 2023372
Aug 2023360
Jul 2023316
Jun 2023274
May 2023245
Apr 2023241
Mar 2023241
Feb 2023241
Jan 2023241
Dec 2022226
Nov 2022271
Oct 2022259
Sept 2022264
Aug 2022293
Jul 2022302
Jun 2022302
May 2022302
Apr 2022298
Mar 2022296
Feb 2022287
Dec 2021259
Nov 2021241
Oct 2021241
Sept 2021302
Aug 2021302
Jul 2021298
Jun 2021264
May 2021264
Apr 2021245
Mar 2021245
Feb 2021243
Dec 2020200
Nov 2020185
Oct 2020216
Sept 2020250
Aug 2020250
Jul 2020245
Jun 2020231
May 2020192
Mar 2020192
Feb 2020167
Jan 2020190
Dec 2019189
Nov 2019189
Oct 2019192
Sept 2019192
Jul 2019192
Jun 2019192
May 2019192
Apr 2019192
Mar 2019192
Feb 2019189
Dec 2018189
Nov 2018189
Oct 2018192
Sept 2018192
Aug 2018212
Jul 2018212
Jun 2018212
Apr 2018213
Mar 2018213
Feb 2018212
Dec 2017204
Nov 2017204
Oct 2017208
Sept 2017264
Aug 2017264
Jul 2017264
Jun 2017264
May 2017264
Apr 2017264
Mar 2017208
Feb 2017226
Nov 2016208
Oct 2016226
Sept 2016245
Aug 2016226
Jul 2016226
Jun 2016226
May 2016220
Apr 2016208
Mar 2016208
Feb 2016208
Dec 2015226
Oct 2015231
Sept 2015231
Aug 2015189
Jul 2015188
Jun 2015207
May 2015198
Apr 2015188
Mar 2015174
Feb 2015189
Nov 2014189
Oct 2014191
Sept 2014192
Aug 2014189
Jul 2014208
Jun 2014208
May 2014208
Apr 2014208
Mar 2014208
Feb 2014189
Dec 2013208
Nov 2013208
Oct 2013213
Sept 2013230
Aug 2013235
Jul 2013235
Jun 2013235
May 2013240
Apr 2013250
Mar 2013212
Jan 2013192
Dec 2012192
Sept 2012282
Aug 2012275
Jul 2012260
May 2012235
Apr 2012226
Dec 2011233
Nov 2011233
Sept 2011233
Jul 2011233
Jun 2011235
May 2011235
Apr 2011196
Mar 2011196
Jan 2011202
Dec 2010192
Nov 2010192
Oct 2010191
Sept 2010197
Aug 2010208
Jul 2010208
Jun 2010208
May 2010193
Apr 2010190
Mar 2010196
Feb 2010196
Dec 2009198
Nov 2009192
Oct 2009194
Sept 2009208
Aug 2009245
Jul 2009260
Jun 2009250
May 2009254
Apr 2009252
Mar 2009228
Feb 2009226

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-565-51-retail-kg.