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Rice (imported) in Dogondoutchi

Dosso, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 16% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was about the same as the national median of 52 markets (usually 4% above). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

466–533

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

444–540

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 16% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 59 markets in Niger, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 466 and 533 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 444 and 540 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (imported), Dogondoutchi: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 16% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 59 markets in Niger, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 466 and 533 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 444 and 540 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (52 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 486–517 500 457–544 611 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 472–520 499 450–578 622 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 466–533 497 444–626 626 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 456–541 496 423–643 622 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 444–540 496 401–647 617 –
Price history (197 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026500
Aug 2026500
Jul 2026500
Jun 2026500
May 2026500
Apr 2026500
Mar 2026500
Feb 2026500
Jan 2026530
Dec 2025550
Nov 2025550
Oct 2025550
Sept 2025550
Aug 2025550
Jul 2025550
Jun 2025600
May 2025620
Apr 2025700
Mar 2025700
Feb 2025700
Jan 2025700
Dec 2024700
Nov 2024700
Oct 2024738
Sept 2024800
Aug 2024800
Jul 2024790
Jun 2024730
May 2024660
Apr 2024630
Mar 2024640
Feb 2024700
Jan 2024700
Dec 2023700
Nov 2023700
Oct 2023700
Sept 2023538
Aug 2023533
Jul 2023500
Jun 2023450
May 2023450
Apr 2023450
Mar 2023450
Feb 2023450
Jan 2023450
Dec 2022450
Nov 2022500
Oct 2022450
Sept 2022450
Aug 2022450
Jul 2022450
Jun 2022450
May 2022450
Apr 2022450
Mar 2022450
Feb 2022450
Jan 2022450
Dec 2021450
Nov 2021450
Oct 2021450
Sept 2021450
Aug 2021450
Jul 2021450
Jun 2021450
May 2021450
Apr 2021450
Mar 2021450
Feb 2021450
Jan 2021450
Dec 2020500
Nov 2020450
Oct 2020450
Sept 2020450
Aug 2020450
Jul 2020450
Jun 2020450
May 2020450
Mar 2020450
Feb 2020450
Jan 2020450
Dec 2019450
Nov 2019450
Oct 2019450
Sept 2019450
Aug 2019450
Jul 2019450
Jun 2019450
May 2019450
Apr 2019450
Mar 2019450
Feb 2019450
Jan 2019450
Dec 2018450
Nov 2018450
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Nov 2016450
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Dec 2015450
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Dec 2013450
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Dec 2012450
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Dec 2011450
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Dec 2010450
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Apr 2010412
Mar 2010438
Feb 2010450
Jan 2010450
Dec 2009450
Nov 2009450
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Sept 2009450
Aug 2009450
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Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-565-64-retail-kg.