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Millet in Dogondoutchi

Dosso, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 30% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 21% below the national median of 53 markets (usually 9% below). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

143–233

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

141–248

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 30% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 11% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 143 and 233 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 141 and 248 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Dogondoutchi: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 30% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 11% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 143 and 233 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 141 and 248 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (53 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 175–230 196 159–242 275 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 138–221 167 129–227 217 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 143–233 176 129–234 233 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 143–238 178 128–278 239 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 141–248 183 119–311 253 –
Price history (373 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026201
Aug 2026215
Jul 2026253
Jun 2026259
May 2026241
Apr 2026241
Mar 2026231
Feb 2026202
Jan 2026172
Dec 2025182
Nov 2025182
Oct 2025187
Sept 2025210
Aug 2025244
Jul 2025259
Jun 2025259
May 2025259
Apr 2025273
Mar 2025278
Feb 2025277
Jan 2025276
Dec 2024274
Nov 2024265
Oct 2024260
Sept 2024333
Aug 2024407
Jul 2024437
Jun 2024430
May 2024370
Apr 2024341
Mar 2024296
Feb 2024277
Jan 2024274
Dec 2023241
Nov 2023240
Oct 2023220
Sept 2023274
Aug 2023315
Jul 2023310
Jun 2023278
May 2023259
Apr 2023236
Mar 2023236
Feb 2023236
Jan 2023224
Dec 2022216
Nov 2022204
Oct 2022194
Sept 2022259
Aug 2022282
Jul 2022296
Jun 2022296
May 2022296
Apr 2022299
Mar 2022273
Feb 2022373
Jan 2022273
Dec 2021259
Nov 2021255
Oct 2021200
Sept 2021296
Aug 2021296
Jul 2021292
Jun 2021259
May 2021259
Apr 2021247
Mar 2021241
Feb 2021231
Jan 2021214
Dec 2020178
Nov 2020182
Oct 2020182
Sept 2020242
Aug 2020291
Jul 2020264
Jun 2020245
May 2020226
Mar 2020194
Feb 2020195
Jan 2020165
Dec 2019145
Nov 2019145
Oct 2019145
Sept 2019165
Aug 2019185
Jul 2019185
Jun 2019186
May 2019222
Apr 2019222
Mar 2019185
Feb 2019164
Jan 2019182
Dec 2018164
Nov 2018145
Oct 2018182
Sept 2018204
Aug 2018226
Jul 2018245
Jun 2018245
Apr 2018222
Mar 2018222
Feb 2018203
Jan 2018213
Dec 2017222
Nov 2017205
Oct 2017145
Sept 2017218
Aug 2017278
Jul 2017259
Jun 2017259
May 2017259
Apr 2017257
Mar 2017200
Feb 2017218
Jan 2017182
Nov 2016182
Oct 2016145
Sept 2016169
Aug 2016231
Jul 2016222
Jun 2016222
May 2016209
Apr 2016164
Mar 2016164
Feb 2016164
Jan 2016164
Dec 2015145
Oct 2015173
Sept 2015185
Aug 2015185
Jul 2015185
Jun 2015203
May 2015185
Apr 2015160
Mar 2015127
Feb 2015145
Jan 2015128
Nov 2014182
Oct 2014186
Sept 2014189
Aug 2014185
Jul 2014222
Jun 2014222
May 2014222
Apr 2014222
Mar 2014222
Feb 2014203
Jan 2014211
Dec 2013205
Nov 2013218
Oct 2013214
Sept 2013241
Aug 2013264
Jul 2013283
Jun 2013270
May 2013241
Apr 2013241
Mar 2013209
Feb 2013212
Jan 2013185
Dec 2012175
Sept 2012301
Aug 2012278
Jul 2012272
May 2012222
Apr 2012222
Mar 2012204
Feb 2012204
Jan 2012204
Dec 2011185
Nov 2011185
Oct 2011187
Sept 2011190
Jul 2011168
Jun 2011164
May 2011169
Apr 2011151
Mar 2011151
Jan 2011129
Dec 2010127
Nov 2010127
Oct 2010126
Sept 2010152
Aug 2010224
Jul 2010223
Jun 2010223
May 2010211
Apr 2010201
Mar 2010189
Feb 2010189
Jan 2010163
Dec 2009150
Nov 2009147
Oct 2009135
Sept 2009195
Jul 2009200
Jun 2009170
May 2009183
Apr 2009170
Mar 2009166
Feb 2009162
Jan 2009162
Dec 2008144
Nov 2008143
Oct 2008147
Sept 2008177
Aug 2008226
Jul 2008210
Jun 2008182
May 2008167
Apr 2008169
Mar 2008150
Feb 2008131
Jan 2008131
Dec 2007132
Nov 2007136
Oct 2007130
Sept 2007124
Aug 2007132
Jul 2007139
Jun 2007137
May 2007130
Apr 2007135
Mar 2007124
Feb 2007139
Jan 2007138
Dec 2006123
Nov 2006118
Oct 2006111
Sept 2006153
Aug 2006171
Jul 2006175
Jun 2006180
May 2006190
Apr 2006169
Mar 2006156
Feb 2006163
Jan 2006158
Dec 2005137
Nov 2005135
Oct 2005131
Sept 2005152
Aug 2005270
Jul 2005236
Jun 2005201
May 2005186
Apr 2005181
Mar 2005163
Feb 2005140
Jan 2005118
Dec 2004119
Nov 2004119
Oct 2004104
Sept 2004128
Aug 2004153
Jul 2004157
Jun 2004131
May 2004135
Apr 2004137
Mar 2004124
Feb 2004129
Jan 2004120
Dec 2003102
Nov 2003109
Oct 2003101
Sept 2003111
Aug 2003131
Jul 2003130
Jun 2003149
May 2003142
Apr 2003148
Mar 2003144
Feb 2003143
Jan 2003127
Dec 2002113
Nov 2002114
Oct 2002106
Sept 2002127
Aug 2002222
Jul 2002201
Jun 2002188
May 2002161
Apr 2002158
Mar 2002160
Feb 2002152
Jan 2002124
Dec 2001106
Nov 2001106
Oct 2001106
Sept 2001122
Aug 2001179
Jul 2001178
Jun 2001177
Mar 2001159
Feb 2001130
Aug 2000118
Jul 2000112
Jun 2000112
May 2000113
Apr 2000104
Mar 2000101
Feb 200090
Jan 200081
Dec 199984
Nov 199970
Oct 199966
Sept 199979
Aug 1999106
Jul 1999108
Jun 199994
May 199994
Apr 1999103
Mar 1999103
Feb 199998
Jan 199989
Dec 199891
Nov 199891
Oct 199894
Sept 1998118
Aug 1998207
Jul 1998224
Jun 1998215
May 1998215
Apr 1998210
Mar 1998177
Feb 1998177
Jan 1998161
Dec 1997142
Nov 1997144
Oct 1997144
Sept 1997114
Aug 1997139
Jul 1997163
Jun 1997147
May 1997142
Apr 1997137
Mar 1997126
Feb 1997116
Dec 199684
Nov 199692
Sept 199698
Aug 1996134
Jul 1996114
Jun 1996109
May 1996114
Apr 1996100
Mar 199676
Feb 199675
Jan 199665
Dec 199566
Nov 199566
Oct 199563
Sept 199559
Aug 199563
Jul 199566
Jun 199562
May 199557
Apr 199557
Mar 199557
Feb 199557
Jan 199548
Dec 199451
Nov 199453
Oct 199465
Sept 199461
Aug 199470
Jul 199477
Jun 199474
May 199468
Apr 199467
Mar 199466
Feb 199460
Jan 199456

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-565-73-retail-kg.