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Maize in Dosso Commune

Dosso, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 36% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was about the same as the national median of 51 markets (usually about the same). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

138–214

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

132–223

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 36% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 11% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 138 and 214 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 132 and 223 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Dosso Commune: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 36% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 11% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 138 and 214 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 132 and 223 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 174–211 194 163–226 313 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 154–212 176 124–215 279 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 138–214 164 112–253 260 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 137–218 164 112–268 266 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 132–223 164 114–324 267 –
Price history (315 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026200
Aug 2026200
Jul 2026200
Jun 2026190
May 2026180
Apr 2026180
Mar 2026180
Feb 2026184
Jan 2026200
Dec 2025200
Nov 2025200
Oct 2025202
Sept 2025223
Aug 2025280
Jul 2025300
Jun 2025300
May 2025290
Apr 2025300
Mar 2025300
Feb 2025300
Jan 2025300
Dec 2024300
Nov 2024280
Oct 2024315
Sept 2024395
Aug 2024440
Jul 2024440
Jun 2024424
May 2024392
Apr 2024364
Mar 2024315
Feb 2024301
Jan 2024296
Dec 2023286
Nov 2023286
Oct 2023290
Sept 2023345
Aug 2023370
Jul 2023313
Jun 2023240
May 2023240
Apr 2023240
Mar 2023240
Feb 2023240
Jan 2023250
Dec 2022304
Nov 2022222
Oct 2022268
Sept 2022300
Aug 2022300
Jul 2022305
Jun 2022299
May 2022298
Apr 2022300
Mar 2022301
Feb 2022281
Jan 2022260
Dec 2021260
Nov 2021260
Oct 2021287
Sept 2021316
Aug 2021324
Jul 2021304
Jun 2021262
May 2021262
Apr 2021246
Mar 2021240
Feb 2021253
Jan 2021228
Dec 2020190
Nov 2020200
Oct 2020225
Sept 2020250
Aug 2020240
Jul 2020234
Jun 2020216
May 2020199
Mar 2020186
Feb 2020192
Jan 2020181
Dec 2019181
Nov 2019180
Oct 2019201
Sept 2019201
Aug 2019201
Jul 2019201
Jun 2019198
May 2019198
Apr 2019191
Mar 2019181
Feb 2019180
Jan 2019183
Dec 2018180
Nov 2018200
Oct 2018200
Sept 2018201
Aug 2018221
Jul 2018201
Jun 2018216
May 2018221
Apr 2018221
Mar 2018211
Feb 2018201
Jan 2018201
Dec 2017201
Nov 2017204
Oct 2017210
Sept 2017241
Aug 2017240
Jul 2017240
Jun 2017261
May 2017261
Apr 2017261
Mar 2017220
Feb 2017220
Jan 2017200
Dec 2016200
Nov 2016200
Oct 2016200
Sept 2016245
Aug 2016240
Jul 2016241
Jun 2016240
May 2016240
Apr 2016240
Mar 2016199
Feb 2016199
Jan 2016199
Dec 2015200
Oct 2015236
Sept 2015242
Aug 2015242
Jul 2015221
Jun 2015220
May 2015216
Apr 2015180
Mar 2015178
Feb 2015189
Jan 2015193
Dec 2014200
Nov 2014190
Oct 2014192
Sept 2014201
Aug 2014200
Jul 2014200
Jun 2014200
May 2014200
Apr 2014200
Mar 2014200
Feb 2014200
Jan 2014199
Dec 2013198
Nov 2013200
Oct 2013200
Sept 2013240
Aug 2013242
Jul 2013243
Jun 2013242
May 2013241
Apr 2013240
Mar 2013232
Jan 2013202
Dec 2012200
Sept 2012302
Aug 2012262
Jul 2012262
May 2012221
Apr 2012221
Mar 2012216
Feb 2012220
Jan 2012222
Dec 2011211
Nov 2011210
Oct 2011250
Sept 2011250
Aug 2011236
Jul 2011227
Jun 2011240
May 2011240
Apr 2011194
Mar 2011181
Feb 2011180
Jan 2011180
Dec 2010182
Nov 2010185
Oct 2010198
Sept 2010208
Aug 2010201
Jul 2010201
Jun 2010202
May 2010201
Apr 2010183
Mar 2010188
Feb 2010203
Jan 2010202
Dec 2009198
Nov 2009202
Oct 2009207
Sept 2009246
Aug 2009267
Jul 2009260
Jun 2009253
May 2009261
Apr 2009244
Mar 2009262
Feb 2009262
Jan 2009263
Dec 2008200
Nov 2008217
Oct 2008241
Sept 2008259
Aug 2008280
Jul 2008268
Jun 2008244
May 2008217
Apr 2008210
Mar 2008189
Feb 2008176
Jan 2008173
Dec 2007157
Nov 2007165
Oct 2007138
Sept 2007138
Aug 2007135
Jul 2007130
Jun 2007125
May 2007124
Apr 2007130
Mar 2007129
Feb 2007128
Jan 2007129
Dec 2006146
Nov 2006149
Oct 2006163
Sept 2006170
Aug 2006178
Jul 2006182
Jun 2006199
May 2006203
Apr 2006195
Mar 2006179
Feb 2006179
Jan 2006192
Dec 2005190
Nov 2005186
Oct 2005207
Sept 2005273
Aug 2005350
Jul 2005322
Jun 2005301
May 2005265
Apr 2005263
Mar 2005247
Feb 2005184
Jan 2005164
Dec 2004177
Nov 2004150
Oct 2004149
Sept 2004162
Aug 2004139
Jul 2004135
Jun 2004127
May 2004128
Apr 2004122
Mar 2004119
Feb 2004120
Jan 2004114
Dec 2003110
Nov 2003112
Oct 2003125
Sept 2003140
Aug 2003146
Jul 2003141
Jun 2003146
May 2003157
Apr 2003163
Mar 2003160
Feb 2003153
Jan 2003166
Dec 2002165
Nov 2002167
Oct 2002168
Sept 2002203
Aug 2002217
Jul 2002219
Jun 2002215
May 2002220
Apr 2002215
Mar 2002212
Feb 2002202
Jan 2002172
Dec 2001151
Nov 2001135
Oct 2001148
Sept 2001191
Aug 2001215
Jul 2001216
Jun 2001214
May 2001214
Apr 2001214
Mar 2001184
Feb 2001154
Jan 2001143
Dec 2000132
Nov 2000141
Oct 2000130
Sept 2000158
Aug 2000149
Jul 2000149
Jun 2000150
May 2000150
Apr 2000133
Mar 2000126
Feb 2000125
Jan 2000126

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-567-51-retail-kg.