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Rice (imported) in Dosso Commune

Dosso, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 17% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was about the same as the national median of 52 markets (usually 4% above). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

461–547

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

434–567

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 17% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). For rice, across 59 markets in Niger, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 461 and 547 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 434 and 567 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (imported), Dosso Commune: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 17% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). For rice, across 59 markets in Niger, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 461 and 547 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 434 and 567 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (52 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 486–535 502 456–564 615 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 471–541 502 442–587 623 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 461–547 501 427–692 611 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 447–563 500 400–703 618 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 434–567 498 383–675 616 –
Price history (385 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026500
Aug 2026500
Jul 2026500
Apr 2026510
Mar 2026500
Feb 2026500
Jan 2026510
Dec 2025538
Nov 2025550
Oct 2025550
Sept 2025550
Aug 2025550
Jul 2025538
Jun 2025500
Mar 2025650
Feb 2025681
Jan 2025700
Dec 2024660
Nov 2024700
Oct 2024700
Sept 2024750
Aug 2024750
Jul 2024790
Jun 2024760
May 2024700
Apr 2024700
Mar 2024700
Feb 2024700
Jan 2024675
Dec 2023700
Nov 2023700
Oct 2023700
Sept 2023625
Aug 2023633
Jul 2023500
Jun 2023500
May 2023500
Mar 2023500
Feb 2023500
Jan 2023500
Dec 2022500
Nov 2022458
Oct 2022500
Sept 2022500
Aug 2022500
Jul 2022500
Jun 2022500
May 2022500
Apr 2022500
Mar 2022500
Feb 2022500
Jan 2022500
Dec 2021500
Nov 2021500
Oct 2021500
Sept 2021500
Aug 2021500
Jul 2021500
Jun 2021500
Apr 2021500
Mar 2021500
Feb 2021500
Jan 2021500
Dec 2020500
Nov 2020500
Oct 2020500
Sept 2020463
Aug 2020500
Jul 2020500
Mar 2020500
Feb 2020500
Jan 2020500
Dec 2019500
Nov 2019500
Oct 2019500
Sept 2019500
Aug 2019500
Jul 2019500
Jun 2019500
May 2019500
Apr 2019500
Mar 2019500
Feb 2019500
Jan 2019500
Dec 2018500
Nov 2018500
Oct 2018500
Sept 2018500
Aug 2018500
Jul 2018500
Jun 2018500
May 2018500
Apr 2018500
Mar 2018500
Feb 2018500
Jan 2018500
Dec 2017500
Nov 2017450
Oct 2017500
Sept 2017500
Aug 2017450
Jul 2017500
Apr 2017500
Mar 2017500
Feb 2017500
Jan 2017450
Dec 2016450
Nov 2016450
Oct 2016450
Sept 2016450
Aug 2016450
Jul 2016450
Jun 2016450
May 2016450
Apr 2016450
Mar 2016450
Feb 2016450
Jan 2016450
Dec 2015450
Nov 2015450
Oct 2015450
Sept 2015450
Aug 2015500
Jul 2015450
Mar 2015450
Feb 2015450
Jan 2015450
Dec 2014450
Nov 2014450
Oct 2014450
Sept 2014450
Aug 2014483
Jul 2014450
Jun 2014450
May 2014450
Mar 2014450
Feb 2014450
Jan 2014450
Dec 2013450
Nov 2013450
Oct 2013450
Sept 2013450
Aug 2013450
Jul 2013450
Jun 2013450
May 2013450
Apr 2013450
Mar 2013450
Feb 2013450
Jan 2013450
Dec 2012450
Sept 2012450
Aug 2012450
Apr 2012450
Mar 2012450
Feb 2012450
Jan 2012450
Dec 2011450
Nov 2011450
Oct 2011450
Sept 2011450
Aug 2011450
Jul 2011450
Jun 2011450
May 2011450
Mar 2011450
Feb 2011450
Jan 2011450
Dec 2010450
Nov 2010417
Oct 2010408
Sept 2010400
Aug 2010400
Jun 2010400
Apr 2010400
Mar 2010400
Feb 2010400
Jan 2010419
Dec 2009425
Nov 2009431
Oct 2009450
Sept 2009450
Aug 2009450
Jun 2009450
Apr 2009450
Mar 2009450
Feb 2009450
Jan 2009450
Dec 2008470
Nov 2008453
Oct 2008452
Sept 2008447
Aug 2008445
Jul 2008441
Jun 2008392
Apr 2008368
Mar 2008390
Feb 2008370
Jan 2008345
Dec 2007344
Nov 2007340
Oct 2007330
Sept 2007325
Aug 2007315
Jul 2007315
Jun 2007311
May 2007310
Mar 2007311
Feb 2007320
Jan 2007320
Dec 2006325
Nov 2006325
Oct 2006325
Sept 2006325
Aug 2006325
Jul 2006325
Jun 2006330
May 2006325
Mar 2006325
Feb 2006325
Jan 2006325
Dec 2005325
Nov 2005325
Oct 2005325
Sept 2005350
Aug 2005363
Jul 2005325
Mar 2005300
Feb 2005300
Jan 2005300
Dec 2004300
Nov 2004300
Oct 2004300
Sept 2004325
Aug 2004325
May 2004300
Mar 2004275
Feb 2004275
Jan 2004275
Dec 2003275
Nov 2003275
Oct 2003275
Sept 2003275
Aug 2003275
Jul 2003275
Jun 2003275
May 2003275
Mar 2003275
Feb 2003275
Jan 2003275
Dec 2002275
Nov 2002275
Oct 2002300
Sept 2002300
Aug 2002300
Jul 2002300
Mar 2002300
Feb 2002300
Jan 2002300
Dec 2001300
Nov 2001300
Oct 2001300
Sept 2001300
Aug 2001300
Jul 2001300
Jun 2001300
May 2001300
Mar 2001300
Feb 2001300
Jan 2001300
Dec 2000300
Nov 2000300
Oct 2000300
Sept 2000300
Aug 2000300
Jun 2000300
May 2000300
Apr 2000300
Mar 2000300
Feb 2000300
Jan 2000300
Dec 1999300
Nov 1999300
Oct 1999300
Sept 1999300
Aug 1999300
Apr 1999300
Mar 1999300
Feb 1999300
Jan 1999300
Dec 1998300
Nov 1998300
Oct 1998300
Sept 1998300
Aug 1998300
Jul 1998300
Jun 1998312
Apr 1998325
Mar 1998300
Feb 1998300
Jan 1998300
Dec 1997300
Nov 1997300
Oct 1997300
Sept 1997325
Aug 1997313
Jul 1997317
Jun 1997313
May 1997300
Apr 1997300
Mar 1997300
Dec 1996300
Nov 1996300
Oct 1996300
Sept 1996350
Aug 1996338
Jun 1996325
May 1996300
Apr 1996300
Mar 1996300
Feb 1996300
Jan 1996300
Dec 1995300
Nov 1995313
Oct 1995325
Sept 1995350
Aug 1995325
Jun 1995275
May 1995275
Apr 1995275
Mar 1995258
Feb 1995275
Jan 1995275
Dec 1994300
Nov 1994288
Oct 1994275
Sept 1994263
Aug 1994250
Jul 1994250
Jun 1994250
May 1994250
Apr 1994233
Mar 1994250
Feb 1994275
Jan 1994200
Dec 1993200
Nov 1993200
Oct 1993200
Sept 1993200
Aug 1993200
Apr 1993200
Mar 1993200
Feb 1993200
Jan 1993200
Dec 1992200
Nov 1992200
Oct 1992200
Sept 1992200
Aug 1992200
Jul 1992200
May 1992188
Apr 1992175
Mar 1992175
Feb 1992175
Jan 1992175
Dec 1991175
Nov 1991175
Oct 1991175
Sept 1991175
Aug 1991175
Jun 1991175
May 1991175
Apr 1991175
Mar 1991188
Feb 1991183
Jan 1991200
Dec 1990200
Nov 1990200
Oct 1990200
Sept 1990200
Aug 1990200
Apr 1990200
Mar 1990200
Feb 1990200
Jan 1990200

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-567-64-retail-kg.