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Sorghum in Dosso Commune

Dosso, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 21% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 13% above the national median of 51 markets (usually 10% above). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

190–286

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

184–298

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 21% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 10% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 190 and 286 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 184 and 298 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Dosso Commune: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 21% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 10% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 190 and 286 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 184 and 298 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400500202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 231–285 256 223–298 329 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 209–288 247 183–307 316 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 190–286 230 166–328 289 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 178–291 227 143–367 283 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 184–298 235 161–388 295 –
Price history (263 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026267
Aug 2026267
Jul 2026242
Jun 2026242
May 2026242
Apr 2026230
Mar 2026216
Jan 2026242
Dec 2025257
Nov 2025262
Oct 2025264
Sept 2025275
Aug 2025298
Jul 2025302
Jun 2025302
May 2025303
Apr 2025302
Mar 2025301
Feb 2025301
Jan 2025281
Dec 2024300
Nov 2024324
Oct 2024399
Sept 2024423
Aug 2024486
Jul 2024445
Jun 2024405
May 2024382
Apr 2024360
Feb 2024328
Jan 2024318
Dec 2023357
Nov 2023360
Oct 2023335
Sept 2023360
Aug 2023320
Jul 2023310
Jun 2023280
May 2023280
Apr 2023270
Mar 2023280
Feb 2023273
Jan 2023280
Dec 2022248
Nov 2022165
Oct 2022295
Sept 2022300
Aug 2022303
Jul 2022305
Jun 2022305
May 2022305
Apr 2022299
Feb 2022302
Jan 2022284
Dec 2021281
Nov 2021281
Oct 2021295
Sept 2021318
Aug 2021323
Jul 2021302
Jun 2021272
May 2021272
Apr 2021282
Feb 2021273
Jan 2021272
Dec 2020181
Nov 2020265
Oct 2020281
Sept 2020281
Aug 2020286
Jul 2020283
Jun 2020245
May 2020245
Mar 2020245
Feb 2020242
Jan 2020242
Dec 2019243
Nov 2019218
Oct 2019224
Sept 2019242
Jul 2019212
Jun 2019242
May 2019242
Apr 2019242
Mar 2019243
Feb 2019242
Jan 2019242
Dec 2018242
Nov 2018244
Oct 2018242
Sept 2018247
Aug 2018257
Jul 2018278
Jun 2018274
May 2018264
Apr 2018263
Mar 2018273
Feb 2018264
Jan 2018264
Dec 2017242
Nov 2017273
Oct 2017286
Sept 2017293
Aug 2017324
Jul 2017283
Jun 2017282
May 2017265
Apr 2017260
Feb 2017243
Jan 2017243
Nov 2016264
Oct 2016264
Sept 2016268
Aug 2016244
Jul 2016246
Jun 2016246
May 2016246
Apr 2016246
Mar 2016251
Feb 2016251
Jan 2016251
Dec 2015251
Oct 2015250
Sept 2015246
Aug 2015250
Jul 2015248
Jun 2015246
May 2015245
Apr 2015244
Feb 2015225
Jan 2015242
Dec 2014242
Nov 2014246
Oct 2014242
Sept 2014239
Aug 2014241
Jul 2014239
Jun 2014233
May 2014240
Apr 2014244
Feb 2014246
Jan 2014257
Dec 2013268
Nov 2013263
Oct 2013310
Sept 2013252
Aug 2013246
Jul 2013247
Jun 2013248
May 2013247
Apr 2013247
Jan 2013207
Dec 2012203
Sept 2012247
Aug 2012245
Jul 2012244
May 2012224
Apr 2012224
Feb 2012222
Jan 2012223
Dec 2011223
Nov 2011224
Oct 2011200
Sept 2011200
Aug 2011198
Jul 2011198
Jun 2011204
May 2011207
Apr 2011206
Mar 2011205
Feb 2011207
Jan 2011205
Dec 2010200
Nov 2010200
Oct 2010202
Sept 2010201
Aug 2010205
Jul 2010202
Jun 2010200
May 2010198
Apr 2010201
Feb 2010214
Jan 2010214
Dec 2009206
Nov 2009202
Oct 2009217
Sept 2009247
Aug 2009267
Jul 2009242
Jun 2009240
May 2009244
Apr 2009242
Feb 2009239
Jan 2009244
Dec 2008232
Nov 2008232
Oct 2008233
Sept 2008248
Aug 2008247
Jul 2008241
Jun 2008227
May 2008207
Apr 2008202
Feb 2008159
Jan 2008151
Dec 2007152
Nov 2007148
Oct 2007132
Sept 2007133
Aug 2007133
Jul 2007133
Jun 2007133
May 2007130
Apr 2007135
Feb 2007137
Jan 2007138
Dec 2006149
Nov 2006148
Oct 2006170
Sept 2006179
Aug 2006181
Jul 2006182
Jun 2006205
May 2006196
Mar 2006184
Feb 2006188
Jan 2006189
Dec 2005184
Nov 2005211
Oct 2005254
Sept 2005290
Aug 2005327
Jul 2005307
Jun 2005267
May 2005246
Apr 2005226
Mar 2005219
Feb 2005183
Jan 2005152
Dec 2004160
Nov 2004170
Oct 2004142
Sept 2004152
Aug 2004162
Jul 2004146
Jun 2004133
May 2004166
Apr 2004136
Mar 2004129
Feb 2004130
Jan 2004126
Dec 2003115
Nov 2003130
Oct 2003128
Sept 2003159
Aug 2003171
Jul 2003159
Jun 2003159
May 2003166
Apr 2003173
Mar 2003187
Feb 2003163
Jan 2003166

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-567-65-retail-kg.