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Rice (imported) in Dungass

Zinder, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 17% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 8% below the national median of 52 markets (usually 5% below). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

392–505

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

371–515

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 17% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 12% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 59 markets in Niger, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 392 and 505 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 371 and 515 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (imported), Dungass: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 17% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 12% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 59 markets in Niger, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 392 and 505 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 371 and 515 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (52 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 430–496 457 389–506 566 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 412–499 456 332–538 558 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 392–505 452 337–557 560 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 385–514 452 358–598 573 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 371–515 457 313–611 554 –
Price history (192 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026550
Aug 2026460
Jul 2026452
Jun 2026550
May 2026525
Apr 2026425
Mar 2026438
Feb 2026460
Jan 2026470
Dec 2025463
Nov 2025450
Oct 2025500
Sept 2025500
Aug 2025540
Jul 2025522
Jun 2025500
May 2025550
Apr 2025550
Mar 2025625
Feb 2025625
Jan 2025712
Dec 2024720
Nov 2024750
Oct 2024758
Sept 2024757
Aug 2024718
Jul 2024756
Jun 2024668
May 2024652
Apr 2024572
Mar 2024529
Feb 2024515
Jan 2024532
Dec 2023625
Aug 2023500
May 2023425
Apr 2023425
Feb 2023450
Jan 2023425
Dec 2022425
Nov 2022500
Oct 2022425
Sept 2022425
Aug 2022558
Jul 2022425
Jun 2022425
May 2022425
Mar 2022425
Feb 2022425
Jan 2022425
Dec 2021425
Nov 2021425
Oct 2021425
Sept 2021425
Aug 2021425
Jul 2021425
Jun 2021425
May 2021425
Apr 2021425
Mar 2021425
Feb 2021425
Jan 2021425
Dec 2020500
Nov 2020425
Oct 2020425
Sept 2020425
Aug 2020425
Jul 2020425
Jun 2020425
May 2020425
Apr 2020425
Mar 2020425
Feb 2020425
Jan 2020425
Dec 2019425
Nov 2019425
Oct 2019425
Sept 2019425
Aug 2019404
Jul 2019500
Jun 2019425
May 2019425
Apr 2019425
Mar 2019425
Feb 2019425
Jan 2019425
Dec 2018450
Nov 2018425
Oct 2018425
Sept 2018425
Aug 2018425
Jul 2018425
Jun 2018425
May 2018438
Apr 2018425
Mar 2018425
Feb 2018425
Jan 2018425
Dec 2017425
Nov 2017425
Oct 2017425
Sept 2017425
Jul 2017425
Jun 2017425
Apr 2017425
Mar 2017425
Feb 2017425
Jan 2017425
Nov 2016425
Oct 2016425
Sept 2016488
Aug 2016500
Jul 2016500
Jun 2016500
May 2016500
Feb 2016500
Jan 2016500
Dec 2015500
Oct 2015500
Sept 2015500
Aug 2015500
Jul 2015500
Jun 2015500
May 2015500
Apr 2015500
Mar 2015500
Feb 2015500
Jan 2015500
Nov 2014500
Oct 2014500
Sept 2014500
Aug 2014500
Jul 2014500
Jun 2014500
May 2014500
Apr 2014500
Mar 2014500
Feb 2014500
Jan 2014500
Dec 2013500
Nov 2013500
Oct 2013500
Sept 2013500
Aug 2013500
Jul 2013500
Jun 2013500
May 2013500
Apr 2013500
Mar 2013500
Jan 2013500
Dec 2012500
Nov 2012500
Oct 2012500
Sept 2012500
Aug 2012500
Jul 2012500
May 2012500
Apr 2012500
Dec 2011500
Nov 2011490
Oct 2011484
Sept 2011475
Jul 2011475
Jun 2011475
May 2011475
Apr 2011475
Mar 2011475
Jan 2011475
Dec 2010475
Nov 2010475
Oct 2010475
Sept 2010475
Aug 2010475
Jul 2010475
Jun 2010475
May 2010475
Apr 2010475
Mar 2010467
Feb 2010494
Jan 2010500
Dec 2009500
Nov 2009500
Oct 2009500
Sept 2009500
Aug 2009500
Jul 2009500
Jun 2009500
May 2009500
Apr 2009533
Mar 2009558
Feb 2009475
Jan 2009459

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-568-64-retail-kg.