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Sorghum in Dungass

Zinder, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 25% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 16% below the national median of 51 markets (usually 10% below). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

134–220

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

130–233

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 25% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 6% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 134 and 220 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 130 and 233 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Dungass: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 25% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 6% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 134 and 220 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 130 and 233 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 162–214 185 155–235 273 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 143–216 173 129–244 248 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 134–220 169 118–277 245 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 131–229 170 114–300 244 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 130–233 174 113–368 243 –
Price history (194 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026192
Aug 2026198
Jul 2026197
Jun 2026202
May 2026187
Apr 2026169
Mar 2026185
Feb 2026178
Jan 2026148
Dec 2025153
Nov 2025179
Oct 2025168
Sept 2025191
Aug 2025200
Jul 2025237
Jun 2025261
May 2025252
Apr 2025257
Mar 2025256
Feb 2025287
Jan 2025218
Dec 2024303
Nov 2024318
Oct 2024344
Sept 2024362
Aug 2024411
Jul 2024404
Jun 2024395
May 2024347
Apr 2024309
Mar 2024313
Feb 2024263
Jan 2024287
Dec 2023287
Aug 2023270
May 2023245
Apr 2023227
Feb 2023240
Jan 2023245
Dec 2022226
Nov 2022218
Oct 2022236
Sept 2022241
Aug 2022241
Jul 2022241
Jun 2022242
May 2022243
Mar 2022250
Feb 2022250
Jan 2022241
Dec 2021236
Nov 2021236
Oct 2021236
Sept 2021236
Aug 2021245
Jul 2021240
Jun 2021235
May 2021235
Apr 2021238
Mar 2021234
Feb 2021218
Jan 2021213
Dec 2020154
Nov 2020212
Oct 2020201
Sept 2020212
Aug 2020185
Jul 2020183
Jun 2020175
May 2020176
Apr 2020174
Mar 2020173
Feb 2020234
Jan 2020175
Dec 2019170
Nov 2019167
Oct 2019161
Sept 2019175
Aug 2019168
Jul 2019174
Jun 2019174
May 2019174
Apr 2019179
Mar 2019172
Feb 2019165
Jan 2019174
Dec 2018165
Nov 2018183
Oct 2018192
Sept 2018185
Aug 2018192
Jul 2018192
Jun 2018182
May 2018187
Apr 2018173
Mar 2018185
Feb 2018182
Jan 2018187
Dec 2017187
Nov 2017196
Oct 2017183
Sept 2017266
Jul 2017296
Jun 2017241
Apr 2017176
Mar 2017176
Feb 2017187
Jan 2017140
Nov 2016121
Oct 2016139
Sept 2016169
Aug 2016181
Jul 2016167
Jun 2016144
May 2016133
Apr 2016132
Feb 2016121
Jan 2016113
Dec 2015123
Oct 2015142
Sept 2015152
Aug 2015123
Jul 2015134
Jun 2015141
May 2015139
Apr 2015136
Mar 2015139
Feb 2015142
Jan 2015142
Nov 2014160
Oct 2014170
Sept 2014212
Aug 2014233
Jul 2014238
Jun 2014238
May 2014238
Apr 2014228
Mar 2014228
Feb 2014218
Jan 2014215
Dec 2013221
Nov 2013226
Oct 2013223
Sept 2013231
Aug 2013248
Jul 2013220
Jun 2013208
May 2013220
Apr 2013212
Mar 2013200
Jan 2013188
Dec 2012179
Nov 2012179
Oct 2012170
Sept 2012188
Aug 2012184
Jul 2012179
May 2012143
Apr 2012136
Dec 2011141
Nov 2011128
Oct 2011123
Sept 2011150
Jul 2011140
Jun 2011162
May 2011152
Apr 2011144
Mar 2011133
Feb 2011133
Jan 2011175
Dec 2010133
Nov 2010123
Oct 2010114
Sept 2010160
Aug 2010171
Jul 2010171
Jun 2010173
May 2010173
Apr 2010143
Mar 2010142
Feb 2010143
Jan 2010148
Dec 2009149
Nov 2009132
Oct 2009119
Sept 2009117
Aug 2009157
Jul 2009172
Jun 2009148
May 2009156
Apr 2009153
Mar 2009159
Feb 2009147
Jan 2009144

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-568-65-retail-kg.