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Maize in Filingue

Tillaberi, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 34% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 5% below the national median of 51 markets (usually 2% above). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

144–214

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

132–226

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 34% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 5% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 144 and 214 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 132 and 226 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Filingue: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 34% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 5% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 144 and 214 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 132 and 226 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 174–212 191 160–234 295 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 162–217 185 141–252 286 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 144–214 173 117–245 265 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 145–223 175 126–279 274 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 132–226 171 108–314 257 –
Price history (179 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026200
Aug 2026190
Jul 2026215
Jun 2026200
May 2026200
Apr 2026210
Mar 2026213
Feb 2026193
Jan 2026207
Dec 2025200
Nov 2025210
Oct 2025225
Sept 2025233
Aug 2025275
Jul 2025305
Jun 2025305
May 2025310
Apr 2025305
Mar 2025307
Feb 2025307
Dec 2024296
Nov 2024310
Oct 2024378
Sept 2024427
Aug 2024367
Jul 2024416
Jun 2024386
May 2024327
Apr 2024327
Mar 2024280
Feb 2024302
Jan 2024250
Dec 2023294
Nov 2023280
Oct 2023300
Feb 2023250
Dec 2022280
Nov 2022235
Oct 2022280
Sept 2022285
Aug 2022310
Jul 2022310
Jun 2022310
May 2022310
Apr 2022300
Mar 2022300
Feb 2022294
Jan 2022280
Dec 2021280
Nov 2021280
Oct 2021287
Sept 2021300
Aug 2021300
Jul 2021276
Jun 2021260
May 2021260
Apr 2021260
Feb 2021235
Jan 2021220
Dec 2020198
Nov 2020205
Oct 2020199
Sept 2020235
Aug 2020230
Jul 2020224
Jun 2020205
May 2020205
Apr 2020205
Mar 2020205
Feb 2020157
Jan 2020189
Dec 2019242
Nov 2019242
Oct 2019242
Sept 2019242
Aug 2019242
Jul 2019211
Jun 2019204
May 2019259
Apr 2019236
Mar 2019236
Feb 2019222
Dec 2018222
Nov 2018214
Oct 2018236
Sept 2018236
Aug 2018234
Jul 2018234
May 2018216
Mar 2018255
Feb 2018268
Jan 2018243
Dec 2017243
Nov 2017220
Oct 2017220
Sept 2017240
Jul 2017240
May 2017243
Apr 2017240
Feb 2017280
Jan 2017220
Nov 2016200
Sept 2016220
Aug 2016220
Jul 2016220
Jun 2016220
May 2016220
Apr 2016200
Mar 2016200
Feb 2016200
Jan 2016200
Dec 2015200
Oct 2015204
Sept 2015208
Aug 2015239
Jul 2015211
Jun 2015212
May 2015212
Apr 2015211
Mar 2015212
Feb 2015212
Jan 2015212
Nov 2014183
Oct 2014212
Sept 2014212
Aug 2014212
Jul 2014212
May 2014212
Apr 2014212
Mar 2014212
Feb 2014212
Jan 2014219
Dec 2013226
Nov 2013240
Oct 2013254
Sept 2013254
Aug 2013254
Jul 2013254
May 2013254
Apr 2013254
Mar 2013249
Jan 2013228
Dec 2012254
Nov 2012254
Oct 2012254
Sept 2012254
Aug 2012240
Jul 2012233
May 2012222
Apr 2012233
Dec 2011232
Jul 2011214
Jun 2011214
May 2011214
Apr 2011224
Feb 2011213
Jan 2011209
Nov 2010191
Sept 2010209
Aug 2010217
Jul 2010209
Jun 2010209
May 2010209
Apr 2010206
Mar 2010206
Feb 2010206
Jan 2010226
Dec 2009226
Nov 2009236
Oct 2009247
Sept 2009247
Aug 2009247
Jul 2009267
Jun 2009247
May 2009247
Apr 2009247
Mar 2009247
Feb 2009247
Jan 2009238

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-573-51-retail-kg.