Staple Signals Français

Home › Niger

Sorghum in Filingue

Tillaberi, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 24% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 3% below the national median of 51 markets (usually 3% above). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

167–249

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

157–259

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 24% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 5% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 167 and 249 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 157 and 259 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Filingue: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 24% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 5% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 167 and 249 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 157 and 259 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 200–247 218 180–269 299 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 177–245 205 154–265 279 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 167–249 199 140–293 268 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 159–254 198 121–331 273 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 157–259 199 131–373 263 –
Price history (180 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026228
Aug 2026230
Jul 2026230
Jun 2026233
May 2026220
Apr 2026210
Mar 2026200
Feb 2026210
Jan 2026220
Dec 2025237
Nov 2025205
Oct 2025220
Sept 2025247
Aug 2025280
Jul 2025325
Jun 2025320
May 2025315
Apr 2025315
Mar 2025320
Feb 2025313
Jan 2025246
Dec 2024320
Nov 2024320
Oct 2024320
Sept 2024413
Aug 2024389
Jul 2024376
Jun 2024336
May 2024306
Apr 2024306
Mar 2024267
Feb 2024298
Jan 2024288
Dec 2023296
Nov 2023320
Feb 2023290
Dec 2022300
Nov 2022210
Oct 2022280
Sept 2022285
Aug 2022323
Jul 2022310
Jun 2022310
May 2022310
Apr 2022300
Mar 2022300
Feb 2022300
Jan 2022280
Dec 2021280
Nov 2021280
Oct 2021280
Sept 2021300
Aug 2021300
Jul 2021288
Jun 2021260
May 2021260
Apr 2021260
Feb 2021250
Jan 2021237
Dec 2020175
Nov 2020223
Oct 2020240
Sept 2020260
Aug 2020280
Jul 2020259
Jun 2020195
May 2020195
Apr 2020195
Mar 2020195
Feb 2020200
Jan 2020195
Dec 2019236
Nov 2019236
Oct 2019236
Sept 2019236
Jul 2019235
Jun 2019244
May 2019244
Apr 2019224
Mar 2019244
Feb 2019227
Dec 2018227
Nov 2018213
Oct 2018255
Sept 2018255
Aug 2018255
Jul 2018255
May 2018248
Mar 2018255
Feb 2018268
Jan 2018264
Dec 2017264
Nov 2017270
Oct 2017270
Sept 2017292
Jul 2017271
May 2017285
Apr 2017271
Feb 2017250
Jan 2017250
Nov 2016250
Sept 2016250
Aug 2016208
Jul 2016208
Jun 2016208
May 2016208
Apr 2016208
Mar 2016208
Feb 2016208
Jan 2016208
Dec 2015208
Oct 2015208
Sept 2015208
Aug 2015211
Jul 2015211
Jun 2015212
May 2015212
Apr 2015211
Mar 2015212
Feb 2015212
Jan 2015212
Nov 2014212
Oct 2014219
Sept 2014222
Aug 2014233
Jul 2014233
May 2014236
Apr 2014244
Mar 2014226
Feb 2014233
Jan 2014226
Dec 2013219
Nov 2013212
Oct 2013254
Sept 2013254
Aug 2013254
Jul 2013254
May 2013254
Apr 2013254
Mar 2013254
Jan 2013212
Dec 2012212
Nov 2012254
Oct 2012254
Sept 2012297
Aug 2012282
Jul 2012275
May 2012254
Apr 2012254
Dec 2011231
Sept 2011191
Jul 2011191
Jun 2011213
May 2011213
Apr 2011191
Feb 2011170
Jan 2011184
Dec 2010170
Nov 2010213
Sept 2010217
Aug 2010213
Jul 2010213
Jun 2010213
May 2010191
Apr 2010214
Mar 2010214
Feb 2010214
Jan 2010207
Dec 2009203
Nov 2009192
Oct 2009192
Sept 2009208
Aug 2009229
Jul 2009208
Jun 2009208
May 2009208
Apr 2009187
Mar 2009187
Feb 2009188
Jan 2009177

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-573-65-retail-kg.