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Millet in Filingue

Tillaberi, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 21% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 3% above the national median of 53 markets (usually 9% above). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

181–285

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

175–293

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 21% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 6% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 181 and 285 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 175 and 293 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Filingue: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 21% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 6% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 181 and 285 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 175 and 293 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (53 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 222–288 250 199–301 350 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 187–279 220 172–291 280 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 181–285 217 162–290 279 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 181–289 219 164–311 290 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 175–293 224 146–312 284 –
Price history (352 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026275
Aug 2026280
Jul 2026290
Jun 2026280
May 2026265
Apr 2026255
Mar 2026260
Feb 2026233
Jan 2026267
Dec 2025296
Nov 2025275
Oct 2025250
Sept 2025253
Aug 2025310
Jul 2025355
Jun 2025345
May 2025345
Apr 2025345
Mar 2025340
Feb 2025333
Jan 2025290
Dec 2024312
Nov 2024305
Oct 2024295
Sept 2024437
Aug 2024427
Jul 2024407
Jun 2024353
May 2024320
Apr 2024358
Mar 2024273
Feb 2024320
Jan 2024258
Dec 2023283
Nov 2023300
Oct 2023300
Sept 2023374
Feb 2023302
Dec 2022300
Nov 2022228
Oct 2022270
Sept 2022366
Aug 2022362
Jul 2022375
Jun 2022348
May 2022355
Apr 2022340
Mar 2022320
Feb 2022350
Jan 2022300
Dec 2021295
Nov 2021280
Oct 2021252
Sept 2021300
Aug 2021300
Jul 2021288
Jun 2021280
May 2021280
Apr 2021276
Feb 2021254
Jan 2021234
Dec 2020197
Nov 2020202
Oct 2020201
Sept 2020288
Aug 2020310
Jul 2020289
Jun 2020240
May 2020235
Apr 2020235
Mar 2020235
Feb 2020235
Jan 2020195
Dec 2019225
Nov 2019270
Oct 2019240
Sept 2019270
Jul 2019282
Jun 2019253
May 2019268
Apr 2019286
Mar 2019286
Feb 2019286
Dec 2018238
Nov 2018239
Oct 2018261
Sept 2018294
Aug 2018333
Jul 2018333
May 2018291
Mar 2018289
Feb 2018263
Jan 2018263
Dec 2017253
Nov 2017240
Oct 2017240
Sept 2017340
Jul 2017300
May 2017280
Apr 2017280
Feb 2017260
Jan 2017260
Nov 2016200
Sept 2016280
Aug 2016240
Jul 2016240
Jun 2016240
May 2016220
Apr 2016220
Mar 2016220
Feb 2016200
Jan 2016200
Dec 2015200
Oct 2015210
Sept 2015220
Aug 2015221
Jul 2015210
Jun 2015210
May 2015210
Apr 2015210
Mar 2015210
Feb 2015210
Jan 2015210
Nov 2014210
Oct 2014203
Sept 2014231
Aug 2014252
Jul 2014273
May 2014252
Apr 2014252
Mar 2014252
Feb 2014252
Jan 2014231
Dec 2013232
Nov 2013238
Oct 2013231
Sept 2013275
Aug 2013294
Jul 2013294
May 2013252
Apr 2013273
Mar 2013268
Feb 2013231
Jan 2013210
Dec 2012224
Nov 2012231
Oct 2012210
Sept 2012315
Aug 2012315
Jul 2012315
May 2012294
Apr 2012294
Mar 2012273
Feb 2012269
Jan 2012269
Dec 2011252
Sept 2011210
Jul 2011206
Jun 2011206
May 2011206
Apr 2011189
Feb 2011185
Jan 2011185
Dec 2010185
Nov 2010185
Sept 2010266
Aug 2010267
Jul 2010267
Jun 2010254
May 2010216
Mar 2010242
Feb 2010221
Jan 2010221
Dec 2009222
Nov 2009181
Oct 2009182
Sept 2009224
Aug 2009244
Jul 2009234
Jun 2009213
May 2009217
Apr 2009203
Mar 2009203
Feb 2009203
Jan 2009190
Dec 2008172
Nov 2008149
Oct 2008138
Sept 2008211
Aug 2008237
Jul 2008241
Jun 2008196
May 2008188
Apr 2008188
Mar 2008188
Feb 2008188
Jan 2008145
Dec 2007141
Nov 2007134
Oct 2007130
Sept 2007142
Aug 2007162
Jul 2007160
Jun 2007150
May 2007146
Apr 2007146
Mar 2007146
Feb 2007145
Jan 2007149
Dec 2006144
Nov 2006142
Oct 2006120
Sept 2006154
Aug 2006206
Jul 2006189
Jun 2006187
May 2006188
Apr 2006180
Mar 2006185
Feb 2006181
Jan 2006188
Dec 2005164
Nov 2005139
Oct 2005150
Sept 2005158
Aug 2005326
Jul 2005301
Jun 2005255
May 2005228
Apr 2005216
Mar 2005205
Feb 2005180
Jan 2005174
Dec 2004150
Nov 2004132
Oct 2004127
Sept 2004143
Aug 2004159
Jul 2004151
Jun 2004139
May 2004134
Apr 2004130
Mar 2004132
Feb 2004128
Jan 2004129
Dec 2003127
Nov 2003121
Oct 2003113
Sept 2003129
Aug 2003146
Jul 2003151
Jun 2003151
Mar 2003193
Feb 2003179
Jan 2003151
Dec 2002139
Nov 2002112
Oct 2002119
Sept 2002162
Aug 2002250
Jul 2002238
Jun 2002226
May 2002216
Jan 2002159
Dec 2001129
Nov 2001129
Oct 2001128
Sept 2001118
Aug 2001166
Dec 2000148
Nov 2000117
Sept 2000138
Aug 2000218
Jul 2000128
Jun 2000128
May 2000130
Apr 2000122
Mar 2000126
Feb 2000126
Jan 2000110
Dec 199984
Nov 1999102
Oct 1999105
Sept 199995
Aug 1999114
Jul 1999117
Jun 1999107
May 1999104
Apr 1999117
Mar 1999205Data error
Feb 1999112
Jan 199987
Dec 199883
Nov 1998105
Oct 1998104
Sept 1998135
Aug 1998229
Jul 1998255
Jun 1998220
May 1998218
Apr 1998225
Mar 1998167
Feb 1998170
Jan 1998166
Dec 1997139
Nov 1997133
Oct 1997137
Sept 1997141
Aug 1997200
Jul 1997196
Jun 1997170
May 1997178
Apr 1997163
Mar 1997149
Feb 1997125
Jan 1997118
Dec 1996102
Nov 199693
Oct 199680
Sept 1996115
Aug 1996155
Jul 1996138
Jun 1996132
May 1996138
Apr 1996121
Mar 1996102
Feb 199685
Jan 199682
Dec 199569
Nov 199568
Oct 199559
Sept 199561
Aug 199574
Jul 199572
Jun 199579
May 199584
Apr 199575
Mar 199579
Feb 199564
Jan 199564
Dec 199451
Nov 199461
Oct 199456
Sept 199471
Aug 199494
Jul 199491
Jun 199489
May 199490
Apr 199480
Mar 199481
Feb 199486
Jan 199484

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-573-73-retail-kg.