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Maize in Galmi

Tahoua, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 27% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 5% above the national median of 51 markets (usually 4% below). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

145–224

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

137–234

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 27% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 3% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 145 and 224 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 137 and 234 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Galmi: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 27% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 3% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 145 and 224 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 137 and 234 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 174–223 196 158–242 282 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 157–222 176 139–229 255 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 145–224 164 124–241 245 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 142–231 167 120–278 248 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 137–234 173 110–292 254 –
Price history (199 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026185
Aug 2026210
Jul 2026216
Jun 2026224
May 2026203
Apr 2026176
Mar 2026191
Feb 2026165
Jan 2026174
Dec 2025182
Nov 2025185
Oct 2025195
Sept 2025207
Aug 2025238
Jul 2025260
Jun 2025284
May 2025281
Apr 2025283
Mar 2025280
Feb 2025287
Jan 2025292
Dec 2024276
Nov 2024270
Oct 2024282
Sept 2024314
Aug 2024401
Jul 2024432
Jun 2024393
May 2024374
Apr 2024332
Mar 2024300
Feb 2024296
Jan 2024304
Dec 2023294
Nov 2023270
Oct 2023328
Sept 2023417
Aug 2023370
Jul 2023333
Jun 2023278
May 2023283
Apr 2023257
Mar 2023257
Feb 2023264
Jan 2023267
Dec 2022279
Nov 2022240
Oct 2022243
Sept 2022257
Aug 2022292
Jul 2022292
Jun 2022281
May 2022298
Apr 2022297
Mar 2022305
Jan 2022274
Dec 2021247
Nov 2021253
Oct 2021260
Sept 2021323
Aug 2021333
Jul 2021305
Jun 2021291
May 2021291
Apr 2021236
Mar 2021267
Feb 2021249
Jan 2021249
Dec 2020218
Nov 2020253
Oct 2020253
Sept 2020257
Aug 2020262
Jul 2020252
Jun 2020220
May 2020223
Mar 2020202
Feb 2020208
Jan 2020213
Dec 2019217
Nov 2019220
Oct 2019206
Sept 2019206
Aug 2019206
Jun 2019202
May 2019196
Apr 2019216
Mar 2019196
Feb 2019191
Jan 2019218
Dec 2018223
Nov 2018223
Oct 2018229
Sept 2018223
Aug 2018243
Jul 2018252
Jun 2018237
May 2018254
Apr 2018234
Mar 2018237
Feb 2018239
Jan 2018223
Dec 2017223
Nov 2017232
Oct 2017234
Sept 2017280
Aug 2017284
Jul 2017286
Jun 2017306
May 2017300
Apr 2017280
Mar 2017240
Feb 2017250
Jan 2017229
Nov 2016204
Oct 2016224
Sept 2016260
Aug 2016272
Jul 2016244
Jun 2016239
May 2016207
Apr 2016200
Mar 2016220
Feb 2016220
Jan 2016208
Dec 2015208
Oct 2015204
Sept 2015229
Aug 2015178
Jul 2015198
Jun 2015197
May 2015194
Apr 2015195
Mar 2015192
Feb 2015192
Jan 2015208
Nov 2014195
Oct 2014196
Sept 2014198
Aug 2014221
Jul 2014219
Jun 2014212
May 2014220
Apr 2014220
Mar 2014224
Feb 2014224
Jan 2014215
Dec 2013215
Nov 2013220
Oct 2013258
Sept 2013266
Aug 2013315
Jul 2013301
Jun 2013260
May 2013245
Apr 2013245
Mar 2013238
Jan 2013231
Dec 2012245
Nov 2012227
Oct 2012219
Sept 2012280
Aug 2012286
Jul 2012262
May 2012231
Apr 2012233
Dec 2011216
Nov 2011203
Oct 2011195
Sept 2011233
Jul 2011224
Jun 2011237
May 2011237
Apr 2011203
Mar 2011195
Jan 2011194
Dec 2010191
Oct 2010217
Sept 2010214
Aug 2010220
Jul 2010220
Jun 2010220
May 2010217
Apr 2010198
Mar 2010200
Feb 2010218
Jan 2010198
Dec 2009206
Nov 2009200
Oct 2009200
Sept 2009229
Aug 2009235
Jul 2009245
Jun 2009220
May 2009202
Apr 2009213
Mar 2009209
Feb 2009220
Jan 2009220

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-574-51-retail-kg.