Staple Signals Français

Home › Niger

Rice (imported) in Galmi

Tahoua, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 9% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 8% above the national median of 52 markets (usually about the same). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

468–579

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

452–603

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 9% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). For rice, across 59 markets in Niger, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 468 and 579 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 452 and 603 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (imported), Galmi: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 9% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). For rice, across 59 markets in Niger, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 468 and 579 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 452 and 603 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (52 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 502–555 534 484–573 605 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 484–559 532 463–594 608 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 468–579 523 466–639 613 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 459–598 522 450–673 606 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 452–603 518 419–728 597 –
Price history (180 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026538
Aug 2026538
Jul 2026540
Apr 2026510
Mar 2026500
Feb 2026517
Jan 2026570
Dec 2025600
Nov 2025588
Oct 2025600
Sept 2025575
Aug 2025600
Jul 2025600
Jun 2025600
May 2025600
Apr 2025600
Mar 2025613
Feb 2025650
Jan 2025660
Dec 2024750
Nov 2024750
Oct 2024750
Sept 2024750
Aug 2024750
Jul 2024750
Jun 2024700
Apr 2024632
Mar 2024625
Feb 2024600
Jan 2024600
Dec 2023600
Nov 2023600
Oct 2023600
Sept 2023600
Aug 2023550
Jul 2023450
Jun 2023450
May 2023450
Apr 2023450
Mar 2023450
Feb 2023450
Jan 2023450
Dec 2022450
Nov 2022500
Oct 2022450
Sept 2022450
Aug 2022450
Jul 2022450
Jun 2022450
Apr 2022450
Mar 2022450
Jan 2022450
Dec 2021450
Nov 2021450
Oct 2021450
Sept 2021450
Aug 2021450
Jul 2021450
Apr 2021500
Mar 2021450
Feb 2021450
Jan 2021450
Dec 2020500
Nov 2020450
Oct 2020450
Sept 2020450
Aug 2020450
Jul 2020450
Mar 2020450
Feb 2020450
Jan 2020450
Dec 2019450
Nov 2019450
Oct 2019450
Sept 2019450
Aug 2019450
Jun 2019450
May 2019450
Apr 2019450
Mar 2019450
Feb 2019475
Jan 2019450
Dec 2018450
Nov 2018450
Oct 2018450
Sept 2018450
Aug 2018450
Jul 2018450
Apr 2018450
Mar 2018450
Feb 2018467
Jan 2018450
Dec 2017450
Nov 2017500
Oct 2017500
Sept 2017500
Aug 2017500
Jul 2017500
Jun 2017500
May 2017500
Apr 2017500
Mar 2017500
Feb 2017500
Jan 2017500
Nov 2016450
Oct 2016450
Sept 2016450
Aug 2016500
Jul 2016500
Jun 2016500
Apr 2016500
Mar 2016500
Feb 2016500
Jan 2016500
Dec 2015500
Oct 2015518
Sept 2015500
Aug 2015500
Jul 2015500
May 2015500
Apr 2015500
Mar 2015500
Feb 2015500
Jan 2015470
Nov 2014450
Oct 2014450
Sept 2014450
Aug 2014450
Jul 2014450
Apr 2014450
Mar 2014450
Feb 2014450
Jan 2014450
Dec 2013450
Nov 2013450
Oct 2013450
Sept 2013450
Aug 2013450
Jul 2013450
Apr 2013450
Mar 2013450
Jan 2013450
Dec 2012450
Nov 2012450
Oct 2012450
Sept 2012450
Aug 2012475
Apr 2012450
Dec 2011450
Nov 2011450
Oct 2011450
Sept 2011450
Jun 2011500
May 2011500
Apr 2011500
Mar 2011500
Jan 2011500
Dec 2010460
Nov 2010450
Oct 2010450
Sept 2010450
Aug 2010450
Jul 2010450
Jun 2010425
Apr 2010400
Mar 2010450
Feb 2010450
Jan 2010450
Dec 2009450
Nov 2009450
Oct 2009450
Sept 2009450
Aug 2009450
Jul 2009450
Jun 2009450
May 2009467
Apr 2009475
Mar 2009450
Feb 2009450
Jan 2009450

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-574-64-retail-kg.