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Sorghum in Galmi

Tahoua, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 25% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 14% below the national median of 51 markets (usually 15% below). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

107–204

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

123–222

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 25% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 15% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 107 and 204 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 123 and 222 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Galmi: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 25% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 15% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 107 and 204 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 123 and 222 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 150–213 174 132–225 244 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 118–202 146 99–217 197 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 107–204 137 96–253 175 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 119–214 147 115–310 210 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 123–222 154 122–328 219 –
Price history (183 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026157
Aug 2026205
Jul 2026211
Jun 2026233
May 2026178
Apr 2026158
Mar 2026160
Feb 2026141
Jan 2026141
Dec 2025155
Nov 2025171
Oct 2025171
Sept 2025184
Aug 2025208
Jul 2025240
Jun 2025238
May 2025240
Apr 2025230
Mar 2025245
Feb 2025250
Jan 2025264
Dec 2024214
Nov 2024208
Oct 2024218
Sept 2024287
Aug 2024376
Jul 2024415
Jun 2024353
May 2024330
Apr 2024300
Mar 2024295
Feb 2024274
Jan 2024269
Dec 2023261
Oct 2023274
Sept 2023340
Aug 2023365
Jul 2023331
Jun 2023275
May 2023247
Apr 2023245
Mar 2023247
Feb 2023252
Jan 2023255
Dec 2022255
Nov 2022157
Oct 2022206
Sept 2022250
Aug 2022283
Jul 2022304
Jun 2022299
May 2022288
Apr 2022293
Mar 2022293
Jan 2022267
Dec 2021253
Nov 2021240
Oct 2021240
Sept 2021299
Aug 2021308
Jul 2021321
Jun 2021261
May 2021261
Apr 2021262
Mar 2021253
Feb 2021252
Jan 2021214
Dec 2020214
Nov 2020142
Sept 2020267
Aug 2020288
Jul 2020281
Jun 2020207
May 2020215
Mar 2020185
Feb 2020195
Jan 2020185
Nov 2019128
Oct 2019128
Sept 2019145
Aug 2019162
Jun 2019161
May 2019180
Apr 2019181
Mar 2019181
Feb 2019179
Jan 2019175
Dec 2018107
Nov 2018130
Oct 2018120
Sept 2018170
Aug 2018256
Jul 2018240
Jun 2018255
May 2018249
Apr 2018247
Mar 2018240
Feb 2018244
Jan 2018250
Dec 2017250
Nov 2017230
Oct 2017240
Sept 2017322
Aug 2017329
Jul 2017292
Jun 2017292
May 2017304
Apr 2017304
Mar 2017226
Jan 2017167
Sept 2016200
Aug 2016240
Jul 2016183
Jun 2016185
May 2016167
Feb 2016160
Jan 2016160
Dec 2015172
Oct 2015172
Sept 2015172
Aug 2015172
Jul 2015172
Jun 2015172
May 2015172
Apr 2015172
Mar 2015172
Feb 2015172
Jan 2015172
Nov 2014272
Oct 2014272
Sept 2014272
Aug 2014272
Jul 2014272
Jun 2014272
May 2014272
Apr 2014272
Mar 2014272
Feb 2014272
Jan 2014272
Dec 2013272
Nov 2013272
Oct 2013272
Sept 2013272
Aug 2013261
Jul 2013294
Jun 2013258
May 2013231
Apr 2013231
Mar 2013208
Jan 2013167
Sept 2012231
Aug 2012285
Jul 2012249
May 2012216
Apr 2012198
Dec 2011190
Jul 2011170
Jun 2011176
May 2011176
Apr 2011157
Mar 2011156
Jan 2011128
Dec 2010135
Sept 2010190
Aug 2010192
Jul 2010192
Jun 2010187
May 2010182
Apr 2010162
Mar 2010160
Feb 2010170
Jan 2010165
Dec 2009170
Oct 2009162
Sept 2009170
Aug 2009202
Jul 2009205
Jun 2009156
May 2009163
Apr 2009168
Mar 2009166
Feb 2009177
Jan 2009180

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-574-65-retail-kg.