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Millet in Galmi

Tahoua, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 27% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 22% below the national median of 53 markets (usually 16% below). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

129–214

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

136–232

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 27% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 5% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 129 and 214 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 136 and 232 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Galmi: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 27% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 5% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 129 and 214 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 136 and 232 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (53 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 167–219 184 143–227 246 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 136–208 159 121–226 200 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 129–214 157 115–241 201 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 139–222 168 120–272 221 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 136–232 174 109–318 233 –
Price history (197 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026185
Aug 2026212
Jul 2026222
Jun 2026217
May 2026201
Apr 2026180
Mar 2026180
Feb 2026188
Jan 2026168
Dec 2025165
Nov 2025178
Oct 2025174
Sept 2025195
Aug 2025227
Jul 2025250
Jun 2025253
May 2025242
Apr 2025243
Mar 2025258
Feb 2025270
Jan 2025276
Dec 2024254
Nov 2024235
Oct 2024250
Sept 2024274
Aug 2024369
Jul 2024416
Jun 2024356
May 2024328
Apr 2024292
Mar 2024293
Feb 2024263
Jan 2024259
Dec 2023260
Nov 2023250
Oct 2023271
Sept 2023350
Aug 2023370
Jul 2023328
Jun 2023277
May 2023214
Apr 2023239
Mar 2023243
Feb 2023251
Jan 2023255
Dec 2022245
Nov 2022186
Oct 2022202
Sept 2022255
Aug 2022283
Jul 2022295
Jun 2022291
May 2022283
Apr 2022303
Mar 2022311
Jan 2022263
Dec 2021243
Nov 2021220
Oct 2021220
Sept 2021294
Aug 2021316
Jul 2021315
Jun 2021278
May 2021242
Apr 2021236
Mar 2021255
Feb 2021252
Jan 2021227
Dec 2020214
Nov 2020167
Oct 2020165
Sept 2020222
Aug 2020316
Jul 2020296
Jun 2020247
May 2020267
Mar 2020216
Feb 2020202
Jan 2020188
Dec 2019168
Nov 2019162
Oct 2019134
Sept 2019172
Aug 2019188
Jun 2019171
May 2019206
Apr 2019180
Mar 2019180
Feb 2019174
Jan 2019182
Dec 2018176
Nov 2018176
Oct 2018161
Sept 2018188
Aug 2018260
Jul 2018265
Jun 2018271
May 2018268
Apr 2018229
Mar 2018232
Feb 2018234
Jan 2018220
Dec 2017220
Nov 2017220
Oct 2017242
Sept 2017277
Aug 2017320
Jul 2017313
Jun 2017313
May 2017296
Apr 2017296
Mar 2017243
Feb 2017245
Jan 2017229
Nov 2016160
Oct 2016151
Sept 2016192
Aug 2016248
Jul 2016189
Jun 2016184
May 2016181
Feb 2016154
Jan 2016138
Dec 2015226
Oct 2015226
Sept 2015226
Aug 2015226
Jul 2015226
Jun 2015226
May 2015226
Apr 2015226
Mar 2015226
Feb 2015226
Jan 2015226
Nov 2014226
Oct 2014226
Sept 2014226
Aug 2014226
Jul 2014226
Jun 2014226
May 2014226
Apr 2014226
Mar 2014226
Feb 2014226
Jan 2014226
Dec 2013226
Nov 2013226
Oct 2013230
Sept 2013270
Aug 2013296
Jul 2013299
Jun 2013267
May 2013240
Apr 2013250
Mar 2013242
Jan 2013212
Dec 2012167
Nov 2012140
Oct 2012155
Sept 2012252
Aug 2012300
Jul 2012298
May 2012250
Apr 2012223
Dec 2011199
Nov 2011161
Oct 2011158
Sept 2011138
Jul 2011185
Jun 2011182
May 2011187
Apr 2011164
Mar 2011160
Jan 2011146
Dec 2010152
Nov 2010130
Oct 2010139
Sept 2010164
Aug 2010220
Jul 2010220
Jun 2010216
May 2010220
Mar 2010190
Feb 2010191
Jan 2010190
Dec 2009160
Nov 2009160
Oct 2009166
Sept 2009180
Aug 2009220
Jul 2009214
Jun 2009182
May 2009180
Apr 2009181
Mar 2009180
Feb 2009180
Jan 2009178

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-574-73-retail-kg.