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Rice (imported) in Gaya

Dosso, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 19% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 15% below the national median of 52 markets (usually 11% below). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

377–469

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

364–481

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 19% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 6% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 59 markets in Niger, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 377 and 469 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 364 and 481 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (imported), Gaya: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 19% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 6% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 59 markets in Niger, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 377 and 469 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 364 and 481 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (52 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 406–451 424 382–464 541 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 387–459 422 352–486 547 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 377–469 420 351–504 542 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 368–480 418 329–554 547 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 364–481 418 327–538 535 –
Price history (200 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026450
Aug 2026425
Jul 2026400
Jun 2026400
May 2026400
Apr 2026410
Mar 2026425
Feb 2026413
Jan 2026420
Dec 2025425
Nov 2025450
Oct 2025450
Sept 2025475
Aug 2025500
Jul 2025500
Jun 2025500
May 2025540
Apr 2025563
Mar 2025585
Feb 2025600
Jan 2025600
Dec 2024600
Nov 2024600
Oct 2024600
Sept 2024613
Aug 2024640
Jul 2024650
Jun 2024630
May 2024600
Apr 2024600
Mar 2024600
Feb 2024620
Jan 2024600
Dec 2023600
Nov 2023600
Oct 2023600
Sept 2023600
Aug 2023550
Jul 2023475
Jun 2023450
May 2023450
Apr 2023450
Mar 2023450
Feb 2023450
Jan 2023450
Dec 2022450
Nov 2022500
Oct 2022500
Sept 2022450
Aug 2022450
Jul 2022450
Jun 2022450
May 2022450
Apr 2022450
Mar 2022450
Feb 2022500
Jan 2022450
Dec 2021450
Nov 2021450
Oct 2021450
Sept 2021450
Aug 2021438
Jul 2021410
Jun 2021400
May 2021400
Apr 2021400
Mar 2021400
Feb 2021400
Jan 2021450
Dec 2020500
Nov 2020450
Oct 2020430
Sept 2020400
Aug 2020400
Jul 2020400
Jun 2020400
May 2020400
Apr 2020400
Mar 2020400
Feb 2020400
Jan 2020400
Dec 2019400
Nov 2019400
Oct 2019400
Sept 2019400
Aug 2019400
Jul 2019400
Jun 2019400
May 2019400
Apr 2019400
Mar 2019400
Feb 2019400
Jan 2019400
Dec 2018400
Nov 2018400
Oct 2018400
Sept 2018400
Aug 2018400
Jul 2018400
May 2018400
Apr 2018400
Mar 2018450
Feb 2018450
Dec 2017450
Nov 2017450
Oct 2017450
Sept 2017450
Aug 2017450
Jul 2017450
Jun 2017450
May 2017400
Apr 2017400
Mar 2017400
Feb 2017400
Jan 2017400
Nov 2016350
Oct 2016400
Sept 2016400
Aug 2016500
Jul 2016450
Jun 2016450
May 2016450
Apr 2016450
Mar 2016450
Feb 2016450
Jan 2016450
Dec 2015450
Oct 2015450
Sept 2015450
Aug 2015450
Jul 2015500
Jun 2015500
May 2015450
Apr 2015400
Mar 2015412
Feb 2015400
Jan 2015438
Nov 2014400
Oct 2014400
Sept 2014400
Aug 2014400
Jul 2014400
Jun 2014400
May 2014400
Apr 2014400
Mar 2014400
Feb 2014400
Jan 2014400
Dec 2013400
Nov 2013400
Oct 2013400
Sept 2013408
Aug 2013400
Jul 2013394
Jun 2013400
May 2013400
Apr 2013400
Mar 2013438
Jan 2013438
Dec 2012425
Nov 2012425
Oct 2012420
Sept 2012462
Aug 2012430
Jul 2012400
May 2012444
Apr 2012475
Dec 2011412
Nov 2011414
Oct 2011420
Sept 2011440
Jul 2011433
Jun 2011400
May 2011400
Apr 2011412
Mar 2011433
Jan 2011438
Dec 2010450
Oct 2010425
Sept 2010430
Aug 2010462
Jul 2010425
Jun 2010400
May 2010419
Apr 2010405
Mar 2010408
Feb 2010450
Jan 2010431
Dec 2009400
Nov 2009406
Oct 2009415
Sept 2009400
Aug 2009425
Jul 2009450
Jun 2009475
May 2009450
Apr 2009475
Mar 2009450
Feb 2009450
Jan 2009500

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-577-64-retail-kg.