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Millet in Gaya

Dosso, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 23% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was about the same as the national median of 53 markets (usually 2% above). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

173–284

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

168–294

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 23% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 23% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 173 and 284 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 168 and 294 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Gaya: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 23% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 23% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 173 and 284 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 168 and 294 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (53 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 195–268 223 174–282 297 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 157–265 196 140–273 244 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 173–284 210 156–297 281 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 170–287 209 147–338 282 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 168–294 213 143–342 281 –
Price history (372 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026259
Aug 2026272
Jul 2026282
Jun 2026274
May 2026222
Apr 2026222
Mar 2026229
Feb 2026220
Jan 2026199
Dec 2025232
Nov 2025235
Oct 2025196
Sept 2025198
Aug 2025286
Jul 2025344
Jun 2025311
May 2025295
Apr 2025313
Mar 2025313
Jan 2025304
Dec 2024293
Nov 2024291
Oct 2024266
Sept 2024346
Aug 2024410
Jul 2024442
Jun 2024417
May 2024383
Apr 2024358
Mar 2024311
Jan 2024330
Dec 2023331
Nov 2023276
Oct 2023291
Sept 2023302
Aug 2023398
Jul 2023378
Jun 2023324
May 2023298
Apr 2023309
Mar 2023301
Feb 2023301
Jan 2023301
Dec 2022294
Nov 2022331
Oct 2022189
Sept 2022262
Aug 2022355
Jul 2022362
Jun 2022329
May 2022329
Apr 2022316
Mar 2022316
Jan 2022284
Dec 2021278
Nov 2021268
Oct 2021230
Sept 2021316
Aug 2021339
Jul 2021306
Jun 2021287
May 2021284
Apr 2021284
Mar 2021283
Jan 2021228
Dec 2020177
Nov 2020235
Oct 2020214
Sept 2020307
Aug 2020337
Jul 2020278
Jun 2020240
May 2020238
Apr 2020241
Mar 2020241
Jan 2020214
Dec 2019208
Nov 2019206
Oct 2019161
Sept 2019183
Aug 2019205
Jul 2019199
Jun 2019214
May 2019222
Apr 2019230
Mar 2019201
Feb 2019201
Jan 2019202
Dec 2018202
Nov 2018187
Oct 2018183
Sept 2018208
Aug 2018250
Jul 2018313
May 2018250
Apr 2018250
Mar 2018244
Dec 2017238
Nov 2017241
Oct 2017219
Sept 2017234
Aug 2017344
Jul 2017313
Jun 2017313
May 2017250
Apr 2017250
Mar 2017250
Feb 2017219
Jan 2017185
Nov 2016188
Oct 2016183
Sept 2016250
Aug 2016235
Jul 2016238
Jun 2016230
May 2016216
Apr 2016179
Jan 2016167
Dec 2015181
Oct 2015151
Sept 2015181
Aug 2015194
Jul 2015212
Jun 2015210
May 2015197
Apr 2015183
Mar 2015188
Feb 2015187
Jan 2015184
Nov 2014181
Oct 2014169
Sept 2014183
Aug 2014190
Jul 2014223
Jun 2014207
May 2014227
Apr 2014247
Mar 2014222
Jan 2014233
Dec 2013229
Nov 2013238
Oct 2013209
Sept 2013201
Aug 2013236
Jul 2013296
Jun 2013281
May 2013297
Apr 2013309
Mar 2013278
Feb 2013247
Jan 2013244
Dec 2012241
Nov 2012225
Oct 2012196
Sept 2012213
Aug 2012256
Jul 2012290
May 2012237
Apr 2012266
Mar 2012225
Jan 2012220
Dec 2011226
Nov 2011211
Oct 2011183
Sept 2011175
Jul 2011222
Jun 2011211
May 2011250
Apr 2011201
Mar 2011189
Jan 2011181
Dec 2010170
Nov 2010168
Oct 2010159
Sept 2010158
Aug 2010249
Jul 2010247
Jun 2010219
May 2010227
Apr 2010213
Mar 2010210
Jan 2010180
Dec 2009181
Nov 2009176
Oct 2009166
Sept 2009203
Aug 2009312
Jul 2009253
Jun 2009226
May 2009244
Apr 2009242
Mar 2009218
Feb 2009210
Jan 2009224
Dec 2008214
Nov 2008198
Oct 2008183
Sept 2008183
Aug 2008224
Jul 2008259
Jun 2008227
May 2008211
Apr 2008206
Mar 2008210
Feb 2008170
Jan 2008153
Dec 2007149
Nov 2007148
Oct 2007127
Sept 2007113
Aug 2007127
Jul 2007139
Jun 2007129
May 2007144
Apr 2007148
Mar 2007149
Feb 2007150
Jan 2007129
Dec 2006118
Nov 2006117
Oct 2006110
Sept 2006113
Aug 2006173
Jul 2006166
Jun 2006163
May 2006178
Apr 2006175
Mar 2006171
Feb 2006179
Jan 2006152
Dec 2005149
Nov 2005138
Oct 2005130
Sept 2005138
Aug 2005274
Jul 2005315
Jun 2005258
May 2005225
Apr 2005207
Mar 2005208
Feb 2005188
Jan 2005144
Dec 2004144
Nov 2004152
Oct 2004128
Sept 2004103
Aug 2004162
Jul 2004165
Jun 2004152
May 2004142
Apr 2004148
Mar 2004149
Feb 2004137
Jan 2004111
Dec 2003108
Nov 2003114
Oct 2003111
Sept 2003102
Aug 2003117
Jul 2003115
Jun 2003132
May 2003147
Apr 2003146
Mar 2003155
Feb 2003145
Jan 2003144
Dec 2002132
Nov 2002149
Oct 2002129
Sept 2002186
Aug 2002249
Jul 2002241
Jun 2002190
May 2002194
Apr 2002199
Mar 2002233
Feb 2002202
Jan 2002161
Dec 2001138
Nov 2001135
Oct 2001151
Sept 2001151
Aug 2001194
Jul 2001182
Jun 2001177
May 2001172
Apr 2001194
Mar 2001147
Jan 2001115
Dec 2000113
Nov 200098
Oct 2000107
Sept 2000116
Aug 2000115
Jul 2000114
Jun 2000113
May 2000114
Apr 2000111
Mar 2000100
Feb 200089
Jan 200074
Dec 199983
Nov 199981
Oct 199972
Sept 199991
Aug 1999119
Jul 1999116
Jun 1999115
May 1999114
Apr 1999122
Mar 1999125
Feb 1999113
Jan 1999106
Dec 1998113
Nov 1998118
Oct 1998116
Sept 1998123
Aug 1998228
Jul 1998231
Jun 1998230
May 1998228
Apr 1998225
Mar 1998195
Feb 1998208
Jan 1998196
Dec 1997171
Nov 1997164
Oct 1997156
Sept 1997134
Aug 1997164
Jul 1997205
Jun 1997180
May 1997185
Apr 1997199
Mar 1997169
Jan 1997131
Dec 1996105
Nov 199699
Oct 199694
Sept 199693
Aug 1996155
Jul 1996143
Jun 1996121
May 1996114
Apr 1996106
Mar 1996100
Feb 199682
Jan 199673
Dec 199572
Nov 199575
Oct 199562
Sept 199573
Aug 199595
Jul 199598
Jun 199589
May 199588
Apr 199593
Mar 199574
Feb 199568
Jan 199567
Dec 199457
Nov 199457
Oct 199459
Sept 199464
Aug 199469
Jul 199470
Jun 199467
May 199469
Apr 199464
Mar 199470
Feb 199465
Jan 199445

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-577-73-retail-kg.