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Maize in Gotheye

Tillaberi, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 28% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 16% above the national median of 51 markets (usually 7% above). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

171–261

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

163–284

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 28% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 6% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 171 and 261 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 163 and 284 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Gotheye: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 28% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 6% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 171 and 261 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 163 and 284 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 209–264 232 191–281 344 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 187–264 220 162–287 311 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 171–261 203 152–303 289 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 171–286 216 155–387 313 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 163–284 214 141–424 309 –
Price history (194 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026189
Aug 2026232
Jul 2026274
Jun 2026284
May 2026248
Apr 2026270
Mar 2026249
Feb 2026241
Jan 2026225
Dec 2025225
Nov 2025224
Oct 2025258
Sept 2025281
Aug 2025331
Jul 2025300
Jun 2025300
May 2025305
Apr 2025320
Mar 2025325
Feb 2025319
Jan 2025310
Dec 2024323
Nov 2024262
Oct 2024269
Sept 2024340
Aug 2024351
Jul 2024380
Jun 2024373
May 2024393
Apr 2024362
Mar 2024351
Feb 2024310
Jan 2024298
Dec 2023288
Nov 2023288
Oct 2023298
Sept 2023357
Aug 2023331
Jul 2023255
Jun 2023231
May 2023250
Apr 2023246
Mar 2023250
Feb 2023282
Jan 2023258
Dec 2022294
Nov 2022235
Oct 2022301
Sept 2022311
Aug 2022311
Jul 2022311
Jun 2022317
May 2022333
Apr 2022351
Mar 2022344
Feb 2022368
Jan 2022341
Dec 2021333
Nov 2021325
Oct 2021357
Sept 2021357
Aug 2021300
Jul 2021260
Jun 2021260
May 2021260
Apr 2021240
Mar 2021240
Feb 2021240
Jan 2021208
Dec 2020217
Nov 2020200
Oct 2020200
Sept 2020200
Aug 2020200
Jul 2020200
Jun 2020206
May 2020207
Apr 2020217
Mar 2020217
Feb 2020205
Jan 2020217
Dec 2019189
Nov 2019174
Oct 2019200
Sept 2019200
Aug 2019200
Jul 2019202
Jun 2019200
May 2019200
Apr 2019200
Mar 2019200
Feb 2019200
Jan 2019200
Dec 2018220
Nov 2018200
Oct 2018200
Sept 2018220
Jul 2018240
Mar 2018220
Feb 2018220
Jan 2018220
Dec 2017220
Nov 2017220
Oct 2017220
Sept 2017250
Aug 2017237
Jun 2017237
May 2017237
Apr 2017229
Mar 2017208
Feb 2017208
Oct 2016196
Sept 2016250
Aug 2016239
Jul 2016239
Jun 2016239
May 2016239
Apr 2016240
Mar 2016200
Feb 2016200
Jan 2016200
Dec 2015225
Oct 2015250
Sept 2015230
Aug 2015211
Jul 2015197
Jun 2015225
May 2015195
Apr 2015200
Mar 2015196
Feb 2015200
Jan 2015200
Nov 2014198
Oct 2014200
Sept 2014200
Aug 2014200
Jul 2014199
Jun 2014200
May 2014200
Apr 2014190
Mar 2014180
Feb 2014180
Jan 2014184
Dec 2013200
Nov 2013206
Oct 2013229
Sept 2013225
Aug 2013214
Jul 2013275
Jun 2013275
May 2013275
Apr 2013275
Mar 2013223
Jan 2013248
Dec 2012262
Nov 2012238
Oct 2012254
Sept 2012258
Aug 2012262
Jul 2012262
May 2012246
Apr 2012238
Dec 2011270
Nov 2011270
Oct 2011258
Sept 2011240
Jul 2011240
Jun 2011226
Apr 2011229
Mar 2011229
Jan 2011214
Dec 2010229
Nov 2010208
Sept 2010240
Aug 2010240
Jul 2010240
Jun 2010240
May 2010227
Apr 2010212
Mar 2010225
Feb 2010235
Jan 2010235
Dec 2009235
Nov 2009275
Oct 2009224
Sept 2009263
Aug 2009265
Jul 2009316
Jun 2009245
May 2009255
Apr 2009265
Mar 2009265
Feb 2009265
Jan 2009267

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-578-51-retail-kg.