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Sorghum in Gotheye

Tillaberi, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 26% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 11% above the national median of 51 markets (usually 11% above). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

190–295

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

180–301

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 26% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 2% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 190 and 295 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 180 and 301 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Gotheye: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 26% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 2% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 190 and 295 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 180 and 301 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 237–303 259 208–326 395 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 208–290 242 162–322 325 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 190–295 233 159–334 310 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 178–294 228 143–385 300 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 180–301 234 149–407 314 –
Price history (189 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026288
Aug 2026264
Jul 2026289
Jun 2026278
May 2026269
Apr 2026274
Mar 2026271
Feb 2026257
Jan 2026232
Dec 2025236
Nov 2025243
Oct 2025259
Sept 2025270
Aug 2025283
Jul 2025316
Jun 2025316
May 2025326
Apr 2025308
Mar 2025300
Feb 2025320
Jan 2025310
Dec 2024282
Nov 2024333
Oct 2024324
Sept 2024433
Aug 2024433
Jul 2024462
Jun 2024426
May 2024388
Apr 2024385
Mar 2024346
Feb 2024321
Jan 2024274
Dec 2023280
Nov 2023297
Oct 2023278
Sept 2023341
Aug 2023341
Jul 2023301
Jun 2023295
May 2023262
Apr 2023267
Mar 2023250
Feb 2023280
Jan 2023291
Dec 2022263
Nov 2022197
Oct 2022301
Sept 2022386
Aug 2022351
Jul 2022412
Jun 2022395
May 2022368
Apr 2022358
Mar 2022361
Feb 2022348
Jan 2022344
Dec 2021344
Nov 2021344
Oct 2021292
Sept 2021344
Aug 2021278
Jul 2021278
Jun 2021250
May 2021250
Apr 2021229
Mar 2021222
Feb 2021243
Jan 2021228
Dec 2020179
Nov 2020222
Oct 2020266
Sept 2020352
Aug 2020306
Jul 2020278
Jun 2020278
May 2020264
Apr 2020278
Mar 2020278
Feb 2020167
Jan 2020236
Dec 2019222
Nov 2019250
Oct 2019238
Sept 2019238
Aug 2019250
Jul 2019228
Jun 2019254
May 2019230
Apr 2019217
Mar 2019217
Feb 2019237
Jan 2019211
Dec 2018211
Nov 2018211
Oct 2018200
Sept 2018220
Jul 2018240
Mar 2018200
Feb 2018200
Jan 2018190
Dec 2017200
Nov 2017200
Oct 2017200
Sept 2017280
Jun 2017229
May 2017208
Apr 2017188
Mar 2017195
Feb 2017190
Oct 2016237
Sept 2016316
Aug 2016228
Jul 2016217
Jun 2016217
May 2016207
Apr 2016180
Mar 2016170
Feb 2016200
Jan 2016160
Dec 2015165
Oct 2015210
Sept 2015200
Aug 2015220
Jul 2015224
Jun 2015222
May 2015242
Apr 2015256
Mar 2015256
Feb 2015256
Jan 2015256
Nov 2014245
Oct 2014256
Sept 2014256
Aug 2014256
Jul 2014256
Jun 2014256
May 2014267
Apr 2014270
Mar 2014270
Feb 2014242
Jan 2014243
Dec 2013270
Nov 2013256
Oct 2013270
Sept 2013270
Aug 2013297
Jul 2013277
Jun 2013270
May 2013270
Apr 2013270
Mar 2013250
Jan 2013231
Dec 2012218
Oct 2012254
Sept 2012281
Aug 2012310
Jul 2012359
May 2012227
Apr 2012227
Dec 2011261
Oct 2011263
Sept 2011263
Jul 2011263
Jun 2011254
May 2011254
Apr 2011270
Mar 2011270
Jan 2011150
Oct 2010183
Sept 2010264
Aug 2010245
Jul 2010242
Jun 2010245
May 2010241
Apr 2010303
Mar 2010189
Jan 2010157
Nov 2009240
Oct 2009238
Sept 2009263
Aug 2009270
Jul 2009324
Jun 2009308
May 2009282
Apr 2009207
Mar 2009263
Feb 2009170
Jan 2009143

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-578-65-retail-kg.