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Millet in Gotheye

Tillaberi, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 23% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 16% above the national median of 53 markets (usually 13% above). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

217–331

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

200–342

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 23% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 2% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 217 and 331 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 200 and 342 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Gotheye: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 23% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 2% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 217 and 331 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 200 and 342 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (53 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 276–349 309 237–379 418 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 227–333 266 194–353 334 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 217–331 259 200–351 331 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 208–333 255 182–379 321 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 200–342 260 158–421 332 –
Price history (194 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026313
Aug 2026316
Jul 2026337
Jun 2026292
May 2026311
Apr 2026282
Mar 2026296
Feb 2026284
Jan 2026270
Dec 2025270
Nov 2025270
Oct 2025276
Sept 2025311
Aug 2025338
Jul 2025368
Jun 2025349
May 2025350
Apr 2025350
Mar 2025349
Feb 2025338
Jan 2025320
Dec 2024308
Nov 2024308
Oct 2024330
Sept 2024457
Aug 2024487
Jul 2024495
Jun 2024431
May 2024388
Apr 2024380
Mar 2024352
Feb 2024326
Jan 2024290
Dec 2023264
Nov 2023297
Oct 2023271
Sept 2023319
Aug 2023370
Jul 2023282
Jun 2023277
May 2023266
Apr 2023269
Mar 2023255
Feb 2023289
Jan 2023291
Dec 2022263
Nov 2022235
Oct 2022247
Sept 2022386
Aug 2022404
Jul 2022421
Jun 2022387
May 2022375
Apr 2022375
Mar 2022350
Feb 2022386
Jan 2022367
Dec 2021352
Nov 2021344
Oct 2021275
Sept 2021354
Aug 2021306
Jul 2021278
Jun 2021278
May 2021250
Apr 2021250
Mar 2021213
Feb 2021231
Jan 2021228
Dec 2020213
Nov 2020222
Oct 2020282
Sept 2020391
Aug 2020367
Jul 2020306
Jun 2020297
May 2020271
Apr 2020278
Mar 2020278
Feb 2020257
Jan 2020236
Dec 2019222
Nov 2019250
Oct 2019238
Sept 2019238
Aug 2019250
Jul 2019256
Jun 2019254
May 2019262
Apr 2019217
Mar 2019217
Feb 2019231
Jan 2019205
Dec 2018205
Nov 2018231
Oct 2018203
Sept 2018220
Jul 2018240
Mar 2018200
Feb 2018200
Jan 2018180
Dec 2017200
Nov 2017200
Oct 2017190
Sept 2017290
Aug 2017240
Jun 2017258
May 2017258
Apr 2017183
Mar 2017174
Feb 2017190
Oct 2016263
Sept 2016289
Aug 2016212
Jul 2016217
Jun 2016217
May 2016217
Apr 2016200
Mar 2016200
Feb 2016200
Jan 2016160
Dec 2015160
Oct 2015250
Sept 2015250
Aug 2015250
Jul 2015250
Jun 2015250
May 2015250
Apr 2015250
Mar 2015250
Feb 2015250
Jan 2015250
Nov 2014250
Oct 2014250
Sept 2014250
Aug 2014250
Jul 2014250
Jun 2014250
May 2014250
Apr 2014250
Mar 2014250
Feb 2014250
Jan 2014250
Dec 2013250
Nov 2013250
Oct 2013250
Sept 2013250
Aug 2013250
Jul 2013250
Jun 2013250
May 2013250
Apr 2013250
Mar 2013250
Jan 2013231
Dec 2012205
Nov 2012179
Oct 2012342
Sept 2012368
Aug 2012368
Jul 2012368
May 2012309
Apr 2012289
Dec 2011258
Nov 2011250
Oct 2011256
Sept 2011256
Jul 2011256
Jun 2011256
May 2011260
Apr 2011263
Mar 2011263
Jan 2011194
Nov 2010162
Oct 2010196
Sept 2010276
Aug 2010240
Jul 2010240
Jun 2010239
May 2010252
Mar 2010203
Feb 2010224
Jan 2010207
Dec 2009214
Nov 2009196
Oct 2009180
Sept 2009308
Aug 2009281
Jul 2009300
Jun 2009308
May 2009274
Apr 2009256
Mar 2009256
Feb 2009222
Jan 2009179

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-578-73-retail-kg.