Staple Signals Français

Home › Niger

Rice (imported) in Goudoumaria

Diffa, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 15% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was about the same as the national median of 52 markets (usually 4% below). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

409–553

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

402–580

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 15% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 13% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 59 markets in Niger, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 409 and 553 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 402 and 580 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (imported), Goudoumaria: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 15% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 13% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 59 markets in Niger, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 409 and 553 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 402 and 580 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (52 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 452–528 499 422–571 597 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 433–537 496 391–612 575 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 409–553 490 365–658 584 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 405–569 488 379–750 595 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 402–580 489 364–712 622 –
Price history (176 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026500
Aug 2026502
Jul 2026485
Jun 2026469
May 2026445
Apr 2026425
Mar 2026450
Dec 2025500
Nov 2025477
Oct 2025500
Sept 2025514
Aug 2025550
Jul 2025550
Jun 2025543
May 2025619
Apr 2025600
Mar 2025583
Feb 2025597
Dec 2024619
Nov 2024625
Oct 2024600
Sept 2024609
Aug 2024650
Jul 2024758
Jun 2024594
May 2024620
Apr 2024673
Feb 2024663
Jan 2024716
Nov 2023800
Oct 2023728
Sept 2023741
Aug 2023659
Jul 2023602
Jun 2023600
May 2023604
Apr 2023597
Dec 2022652
Nov 2022500
Oct 2022441
Sept 2022574
Aug 2022587
Jul 2022571
Jun 2022554
May 2022506
Apr 2022592
Mar 2022541
Feb 2022515
Dec 2021497
Nov 2021495
Oct 2021500
Sept 2021500
Aug 2021557
Jul 2021512
Jun 2021460
May 2021460
Apr 2021448
Feb 2021479
Dec 2020500
Nov 2020457
Oct 2020445
Sept 2020426
Aug 2020407
Jul 2020533
Jun 2020519
May 2020475
Apr 2020524
Mar 2020508
Feb 2020500
Jan 2020479
Dec 2019454
Nov 2019503
Oct 2019508
Sept 2019508
Aug 2019527
Jul 2019545
Jun 2019529
May 2019525
Apr 2019551
Dec 2018513
Nov 2018513
Oct 2018534
Aug 2018506
Jul 2018506
Jun 2018496
May 2018479
Apr 2018461
Feb 2018525
Jan 2018553
Dec 2017580
Nov 2017502
Oct 2017520
Sept 2017520
Aug 2017522
Jul 2017522
Jun 2017489
May 2017481
Apr 2017406
Feb 2017443
Jan 2017443
Nov 2016440
Oct 2016440
Sept 2016501
Aug 2016501
Jul 2016480
Jun 2016462
May 2016462
Apr 2016469
Mar 2016469
Feb 2016402
Dec 2015568
Oct 2015543
Sept 2015537
Aug 2015513
Jul 2015508
Jun 2015510
May 2015483
Apr 2015470
Nov 2014510
Oct 2014515
Sept 2014527
Aug 2014550
Jul 2014527
Jun 2014484
May 2014463
Apr 2014463
Mar 2014480
Feb 2014505
Jan 2014505
Dec 2013505
Nov 2013545
Oct 2013556
Sept 2013565
Aug 2013525
Jul 2013524
Jun 2013533
May 2013550
Apr 2013504
Mar 2013520
Jan 2013574
Dec 2012506
Nov 2012557
Oct 2012609
Sept 2012609
Aug 2012574
Jul 2012572
May 2012561
Apr 2012561
Dec 2011569
Nov 2011569
Oct 2011520
Sept 2011508
Jul 2011491
Jun 2011547
May 2011553
Apr 2011556
Dec 2010500
Nov 2010481
Oct 2010511
Sept 2010532
Aug 2010587
Jul 2010599
Jun 2010570
May 2010507
Apr 2010518
Feb 2010535
Jan 2010534
Dec 2009537
Nov 2009522
Oct 2009534
Sept 2009501
Aug 2009419
Jul 2009519
Jun 2009522
May 2009520
Apr 2009549

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-579-64-retail-kg.