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Millet in Goudoumaria

Diffa, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 30% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 16% below the national median of 53 markets (usually 8% below). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

150–244

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

139–250

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 30% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 2% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 150 and 244 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 139 and 250 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Goudoumaria: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 30% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 2% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 150 and 244 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 139 and 250 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (53 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 183–245 208 166–256 295 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 151–237 180 137–246 242 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 150–244 181 138–247 245 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 149–247 181 136–287 248 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 139–250 180 119–273 242 –
Price history (194 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026232
Aug 2026229
Jul 2026254
Jun 2026253
May 2026233
Apr 2026202
Mar 2026201
Feb 2026185
Jan 2026166
Dec 2025168
Nov 2025185
Oct 2025186
Sept 2025192
Aug 2025239
Jul 2025275
Jun 2025287
May 2025285
Apr 2025273
Mar 2025282
Feb 2025278
Jan 2025286
Dec 2024270
Nov 2024276
Oct 2024287
Sept 2024325
Aug 2024470
Jul 2024412
Jun 2024350
May 2024329
Apr 2024312
Mar 2024307
Feb 2024291
Jan 2024290
Dec 2023298
Nov 2023278
Oct 2023285
Sept 2023388
Aug 2023375
Jul 2023326
Jun 2023326
May 2023308
Apr 2023281
Mar 2023280
Feb 2023201
Jan 2023239
Dec 2022260
Nov 2022246
Oct 2022303
Sept 2022318
Aug 2022334
Jul 2022310
Jun 2022307
May 2022271
Apr 2022302
Mar 2022300
Feb 2022295
Jan 2022272
Dec 2021264
Nov 2021258
Oct 2021225
Sept 2021307
Aug 2021360
Jul 2021364
Jun 2021321
May 2021298
Apr 2021307
Mar 2021292
Feb 2021270
Jan 2021209
Dec 2020238
Nov 2020254
Oct 2020201
Sept 2020282
Aug 2020275
Jul 2020269
Jun 2020256
May 2020224
Apr 2020236
Mar 2020205
Feb 2020182
Jan 2020178
Dec 2019200
Nov 2019204
Oct 2019193
Sept 2019193
Jul 2019190
Jun 2019198
May 2019200
Apr 2019201
Mar 2019201
Feb 2019192
Jan 2019192
Dec 2018200
Nov 2018200
Oct 2018200
Aug 2018256
Jul 2018256
Jun 2018238
May 2018232
Apr 2018225
Mar 2018246
Feb 2018246
Jan 2018243
Dec 2017240
Nov 2017252
Oct 2017258
Sept 2017258
Aug 2017346
Jul 2017346
Jun 2017301
May 2017302
Apr 2017254
Mar 2017254
Feb 2017236
Jan 2017236
Nov 2016179
Oct 2016179
Sept 2016295
Aug 2016295
Jul 2016242
Jun 2016217
May 2016217
Feb 2016192
Jan 2016198
Dec 2015208
Oct 2015187
Sept 2015200
Aug 2015203
Jul 2015203
Jun 2015234
May 2015225
Apr 2015217
Mar 2015231
Feb 2015248
Jan 2015234
Nov 2014279
Oct 2014272
Sept 2014274
Aug 2014279
Jul 2014276
Jun 2014270
May 2014232
Apr 2014232
Mar 2014259
Feb 2014306
Jan 2014306
Dec 2013306
Nov 2013285
Oct 2013297
Sept 2013315
Aug 2013336
Jul 2013352
Jun 2013316
May 2013297
Apr 2013292
Mar 2013269
Jan 2013259
Dec 2012232
Nov 2012231
Oct 2012230
Sept 2012289
Aug 2012298
Jul 2012269
May 2012288
Apr 2012288
Dec 2011212
Nov 2011212
Oct 2011201
Sept 2011195
Jul 2011207
Jun 2011193
May 2011191
Apr 2011194
Mar 2011199
Jan 2011194
Dec 2010174
Nov 2010156
Oct 2010183
Sept 2010215
Aug 2010245
Jul 2010246
Jun 2010237
May 2010186
Feb 2010198
Jan 2010217
Dec 2009208
Nov 2009194
Oct 2009193
Sept 2009218
Aug 2009234
Jul 2009197
Jun 2009200
May 2009192
Apr 2009200

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-579-73-retail-kg.