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Maize in Goure

Zinder, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 29% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 31% above the national median of 51 markets (usually 16% above). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

175–285

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

162–297

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 29% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 4% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 175 and 285 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 162 and 297 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Goure: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 29% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 4% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 175 and 285 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 162 and 297 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 222–279 246 205–314 363 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 192–277 215 161–298 314 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 175–285 207 145–349 301 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 171–296 212 134–361 311 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 162–297 212 128–361 311 –
Price history (309 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026273
Aug 2026261
Jul 2026273
Jun 2026273
May 2026271
Apr 2026233
Mar 2026223
Feb 2026217
Jan 2026204
Dec 2025231
Nov 2025244
Oct 2025225
Sept 2025259
Aug 2025283
Jul 2025313
Jun 2025313
May 2025313
Apr 2025313
Mar 2025338
Feb 2025347
Jan 2025303
Dec 2024375
Nov 2024348
Oct 2024371
Sept 2024469
Aug 2024490
Jul 2024478
Jun 2024436
May 2024411
Apr 2024384
Mar 2024364
Feb 2024336
Jan 2024342
Dec 2023349
Nov 2023340
Oct 2023422
Sept 2023450
Aug 2023435
Jul 2023400
Jun 2023400
May 2023349
Apr 2023323
Mar 2023338
Feb 2023328
Jan 2023318
Dec 2022319
Nov 2022266
Sept 2022368
Aug 2022369
Jul 2022391
Jun 2022365
May 2022348
Apr 2022372
Mar 2022372
Feb 2022386
Jan 2022335
Dec 2021295
Nov 2021302
Oct 2021289
Sept 2021381
Aug 2021377
Jul 2021351
Jun 2021328
May 2021328
Apr 2021340
Mar 2021345
Feb 2021347
Jan 2021300
Dec 2020232
Nov 2020267
Oct 2020276
Sept 2020310
Aug 2020350
Jul 2020324
Jun 2020283
May 2020290
Apr 2020257
Mar 2020246
Feb 2020215
Jan 2020239
Dec 2019235
Nov 2019235
Oct 2019220
Sept 2019240
Aug 2019259
Jun 2019292
May 2019293
Apr 2019300
Mar 2019282
Feb 2019278
Jan 2019274
Dec 2018270
Nov 2018266
Oct 2018279
Sept 2018316
Aug 2018281
Jul 2018245
Jun 2018252
May 2018242
Apr 2018237
Mar 2018240
Feb 2018243
Jan 2018243
Dec 2017243
Nov 2017237
Oct 2017280
Sept 2017280
Aug 2017318
Jul 2017324
Jun 2017327
May 2017320
Apr 2017289
Mar 2017330
Feb 2017278
Jan 2017238
Nov 2016200
Oct 2016200
Sept 2016240
Aug 2016280
Jul 2016255
Jun 2016216
May 2016216
Apr 2016216
Mar 2016216
Feb 2016216
Jan 2016221
Dec 2015231
Oct 2015239
Sept 2015242
Aug 2015200
Jul 2015220
Jun 2015244
May 2015242
Apr 2015226
Mar 2015204
Feb 2015203
Jan 2015200
Nov 2014219
Oct 2014250
Sept 2014250
Aug 2014312
Jul 2014318
Jun 2014318
May 2014318
Apr 2014318
Mar 2014318
Feb 2014318
Jan 2014294
Dec 2013286
Nov 2013288
Oct 2013261
Sept 2013274
Aug 2013292
Jul 2013291
Jun 2013260
May 2013261
Apr 2013249
Mar 2013224
Feb 2013228
Jan 2013224
Dec 2012257
Nov 2012269
Oct 2012266
Sept 2012261
Aug 2012261
Jul 2012267
May 2012243
Apr 2012224
Mar 2012233
Feb 2012224
Jan 2012224
Dec 2011205
Nov 2011202
Oct 2011205
Sept 2011200
Jul 2011223
Jun 2011224
May 2011224
Apr 2011223
Mar 2011187
Jan 2011187
Dec 2010187
Nov 2010187
Oct 2010187
Sept 2010224
Aug 2010224
Jul 2010224
Jun 2010204
May 2010205
Apr 2010206
Mar 2010206
Feb 2010218
Jan 2010224
Dec 2009205
Nov 2009204
Oct 2009224
Sept 2009224
Aug 2009223
Jul 2009222
Jun 2009223
May 2009224
Apr 2009223
Mar 2009224
Oct 2008224
Sept 2008224
Aug 2008224
Jun 2008187
May 2008186
Apr 2008187
Feb 2008170
Jan 2008158
Dec 2007167
Nov 2007156
Oct 2007134
Sept 2007144
Aug 2007148
Jul 2007148
Jun 2007149
May 2007149
Apr 2007149
Mar 2007148
Feb 2007149
Jan 2007148
Dec 2006148
Nov 2006149
Oct 2006149
Sept 2006158
Aug 2006168
Jul 2006168
Jun 2006169
May 2006169
Apr 2006169
Mar 2006164
Feb 2006172
Oct 2005189
Sept 2005221
Aug 2005311
Jul 2005308
Jun 2005260
May 2005233
Apr 2005237
Mar 2005207
Feb 2005204
Jan 2005175
Dec 2004166
Nov 2004152
Oct 2004151
Sept 2004155
Aug 2004151
Jul 2004151
Jun 2004146
May 2004146
Apr 2004145
Mar 2004131
Dec 2003113
Nov 2003112
Oct 2003113
Sept 2003112
Aug 2003112
Jul 2003130
Jun 2003132
May 2003149
Apr 2003147
Mar 2003143
Jun 2001193
Nov 2000139
Oct 2000131
Sept 2000133
Aug 2000135
Jul 2000135
Jun 2000140
May 2000145
Apr 2000163
Mar 2000152
Jul 1998217
Jun 1998208
Nov 1997153
Oct 1997145
Sept 1997156
Aug 1997156
Jul 1997156
Nov 199691
Oct 1996102
Sept 1996128
Aug 1996128
Jun 199696
Apr 199676
Mar 199676
Feb 199676
Jan 199676
Dec 199576
Aug 199576
Jul 199576
Jun 199576
May 199576
Mar 199575
Feb 199575
Jan 199580
Dec 199477
Nov 199477
Oct 199477
Sept 199483
Aug 199477
Jul 199481
Jun 199475
Apr 199481
Mar 199467
Feb 199466
Jan 199461

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-580-51-retail-kg.