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Sorghum in Goure

Zinder, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 25% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 5% above the national median of 51 markets (usually 4% above). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

143–256

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

148–282

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

3%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 25% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 143 and 256 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 148 and 282 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Goure: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 25% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 143 and 256 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 148 and 282 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 193–270 228 183–291 322 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 165–263 199 133–287 280 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 143–256 185 117–301 245 3%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 149–264 190 127–368 261 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 148–282 201 117–337 273 –
Price history (284 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026250
Aug 2026250
Jul 2026273
Jun 2026273
May 2026250
Apr 2026211
Mar 2026226
Feb 2026183
Jan 2026177
Dec 2025185
Nov 2025198
Oct 2025229
Sept 2025227
Aug 2025273
Jul 2025273
Jun 2025273
May 2025273
Apr 2025273
Mar 2025261
Feb 2025264
Jan 2025291
Dec 2024274
Nov 2024279
Oct 2024360
Sept 2024432
Aug 2024491
Jul 2024453
Jun 2024405
May 2024387
Apr 2024348
Mar 2024313
Feb 2024316
Jan 2024312
Dec 2023300
Nov 2023300
Sept 2023383
Aug 2023341
Jul 2023329
Jun 2023329
May 2023327
Apr 2023326
Mar 2023264
Feb 2023272
Jan 2023279
Dec 2022272
Nov 2022182
Oct 2022254
Sept 2022346
Aug 2022362
Jul 2022341
Jun 2022306
May 2022288
Apr 2022333
Mar 2022333
Feb 2022345
Jan 2022280
Dec 2021275
Nov 2021273
Oct 2021273
Sept 2021295
Aug 2021318
Jul 2021321
Jun 2021252
May 2021252
Apr 2021275
Mar 2021268
Feb 2021266
Jan 2021234
Dec 2020187
Nov 2020189
Oct 2020264
Sept 2020297
Aug 2020307
Jul 2020302
Jun 2020242
May 2020242
Apr 2020242
Mar 2020242
Feb 2020141
Dec 2019180
Nov 2019197
Oct 2019198
Sept 2019209
Aug 2019219
Jul 2019172
Jun 2019233
May 2019266
Apr 2019246
Mar 2019235
Feb 2019250
Jan 2019232
Dec 2018269
Nov 2018206
Oct 2018251
Sept 2018303
Aug 2018302
Jul 2018250
Jun 2018240
May 2018240
Apr 2018240
Mar 2018242
Feb 2018242
Dec 2017247
Nov 2017240
Oct 2017240
Sept 2017260
Aug 2017300
Jul 2017300
Jun 2017280
May 2017280
Apr 2017271
Mar 2017233
Feb 2017240
Nov 2016200
Sept 2016250
Aug 2016240
Jul 2016195
Jun 2016180
May 2016180
Apr 2016158
Mar 2016198
Feb 2016200
Dec 2015140
Oct 2015200
Sept 2015240
Aug 2015200
Jul 2015200
Jun 2015200
May 2015200
Apr 2015200
Mar 2015200
Feb 2015200
Nov 2014332
Oct 2014332
Sept 2014332
Aug 2014280
Jul 2014280
Jun 2014280
May 2014280
Apr 2014280
Mar 2014280
Feb 2014280
Jan 2014332
Dec 2013332
Nov 2013332
Oct 2013332
Sept 2013332
Aug 2013332
Jul 2013330
May 2013243
Apr 2013241
Mar 2013238
Jan 2013191
Dec 2012208
Nov 2012215
Oct 2012214
Sept 2012220
Aug 2012221
Jul 2012232
May 2012221
Apr 2012183
Mar 2012148
Feb 2012185
Jan 2012237
Dec 2011130
Nov 2011148
Oct 2011164
Sept 2011138
Jul 2011148
Jun 2011147
May 2011135
Apr 2011148
Mar 2011120
Dec 2010111
Nov 2010110
Oct 2010157
Sept 2010184
Aug 2010222
Jul 2010221
Jun 2010184
May 2010185
Apr 2010185
Mar 2010191
Feb 2010185
Jan 2010185
Dec 2009184
Nov 2009185
Oct 2009177
Sept 2009176
Aug 2009204
Jul 2009184
Jun 2009165
May 2009165
Apr 2009166
Mar 2009166
Feb 2009166
Dec 2008152
Nov 2008147
Sept 2008169
Aug 2008185
Jul 2008185
Jun 2008170
May 2008170
Apr 2008176
Feb 2008148
Jan 2008129
Dec 2007114
Nov 2007120
Oct 2007112
Sept 2007110
Aug 2007122
Jul 2007129
Jun 2007129
May 2007129
Apr 2007129
Mar 2007129
Feb 2007129
Dec 2006117
Nov 2006102
Oct 2006116
Sept 2006125
Aug 2006149
Jul 2006147
Jun 2006121
May 2006121
Apr 2006130
Mar 2006130
Feb 2006129
Dec 2005109
Nov 200584.6
Oct 2005102
Sept 2005206
Aug 2005287
Jul 2005276
Jun 2005241
May 2005222
Apr 2005220
Mar 2005192
Feb 2005185
Jan 2005154
Dec 2004146
Nov 2004129
Oct 2004140
Sept 2004131
Aug 2004131
Jul 2004129
Jun 2004113
May 2004122
Apr 2004127
Mar 2004103
Feb 200495.8
Dec 200377
Nov 200377.4
Oct 200375
Sept 200375
Aug 200381.6
Jul 200391.9
Jun 2003103
May 2003132
Apr 2003122
Mar 2003129
Feb 2003126
Jan 2003124
Dec 2002106
Nov 2002116
Oct 2002135
Sept 2002178
Aug 2002205
Jul 2002182
Jun 2002163
May 2002145
Apr 2002161
Mar 2002168
Feb 2002158
Dec 2001109
Nov 2001109
Oct 2001103
Sept 2001155
Aug 2001205
Jul 2001194
Jun 2001184
Mar 2001167
Feb 2001132
Jan 2001118

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-580-65-retail-kg.